Bringing things back to the movies at hand, a new poll this week.
Various prognosticators are finally taking their first stabs at picking the awards season’s frontrunners, and there is a surprising consensus developing. Of course, it’s a consensus based on films that have not been seen for the most part, 90% of most lists containing stuff coming down the pike. But it’s a consensus nonetheless.
So with that in mind, tell us who you think the frontrunner is in the new sidebar poll. We’re charging into October and this is probably that last chance we have before people actually start seeing the majority of these films. I’ve arrogantly chosen the 10 contenders from our most recent Best Picture chart to represent the choices, but as always, feel free to chime in here if your pick isn’t represented on the list.
Comments
53 responses to “POLL: Heading into October, what is the frontrunner for Oscar?”
I think it’s foolish at the moment not to have The Dark Knight on your poll. Currently its the film with the most critical love and box office. A nomination is almost assured due to its DVD release in December and it’s re-release in Imax in early January. The Dark Knight is not gonna leave peoples minds and at the moment it is the frontrunner. I dont believe it will win when all is said and done – we have a lot more films that need to open, but at the moment it’s the film to beat. Everyone really needs to stop underestimating the Dark Knight chances. Just my two cents
You beat me to it Sean.
Noted. Probably my #11 at the moment, but that’s what “other” is for.
Guys, you’re going to have to get over it. Dark Knight will NOT be nominated for best picture. No way. No how.
jacqueline, you’re just being stubborn…
its not a garuntee that TDK gets nominated, but it does have a good shot. you need to get over your obvious bias.
“Obvious bias” can work both ways, tony.
i never said those on the other side of the fence arent biased themselves. as for myself, i’m not biased. i understand there’s just as good a chance it wont be nominated. but to proclaim that there’s NO CHANCE it does is both ignorant and stubborn.
You might think so, but convictions go a long way with stuff like this. Personally, I felt there was no chance, regardless of critical and popular appeal, until the studio announced a full-scale Oscar re-release attack, so I partially understand where someone like Jacqueline is coming from.
I liked The Dark Knight so unless Oscar bucks our tradition, it won’t win Best Picture.
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2. Revolutionary Road
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Slumdog Millionaire
6. The Wrestler
7. The Dark Knight
8. Australia
9. The Soloist
10. Synecdoche, New York
I’ll have to come to Jacqueline’s defense here. First of all, I wanna say that I’ve seen TDK four times and loved it. And if I had to make this decision, it would be among the TOP 5 (BTW, just like WALL-E which no one has mentioned here yet).
The one’s who are probably gonna be “stubborn”, are many Academy members who refer to TDK as “just a superhero movie” and ignore it. It’s just not the kind of movie they wanna see in their prestigious Best Picture line-up.
I don’t wanna rule out a nomination completely, though at this point, also because right now I couldn’t say if the re-release brings back enough momentum for a possible BP nom.
My ‘other’ choice would be “The Wrestler” rather than “The Dark Knight,” but we’re all just shooting in the dark here.
From the titles listed, I’m taking a wild stab on “Australia” — that news trailer is terrific, and I think the Academy might be ready to honour something big, beautiful and romantic again.
I’m with Bryan, perhaps mostly because he mentioned WALL-E, which through 20 movies this year I still have at #1 (TDK at #2). However, while we like these movies, I think there still has to be considerably credence given to the fact that these are not AMPAS films. Maybe TDK’s box office numbers change that, but I think they probably don’t, not in a year with films that AMPAS would seem to like more: Australia, Frost/Nixon, and Revolutionary Road. For the record, I think Milk and Slumdog join those three in the Final Five.
Wall-E! Please!!! I love it!
I agree with Kris’s top ten, although I would add The Road and The Dark Knight onto the list. And I know Rachel Getting Married has potential for acting noms, but does it have enough for a best picture nomination? It got really good reviews at Toronto and Jonathan Demme is well respected…
And speaking of The Road, has a trailer been released yet???
I think Australia’s new trailer is going to propel itself to the top of the heap. I may be the only one unimpressed with Milk’s trailer, but I think right behind Australia is Revolutionary Road and Benjamin Button. No matter the kinds of semi-negative buss surrounding these three movies, the previews are leaving me wanting more.
Every single Oscar WALL-E wins is well-deserved!!!
Gran Torino might just slip in and take the prize…the Academy loves Eastwood. I really like the pedigree of Revolutionary Road however. Mendes has been to the top before, and if all this films fantastic individual elements come together as a satisfying whole, it will be hard to beat.
Also…totally off topic…I just watched Youth Without Youth a few nights back, and thought it was a fine film. Some similar story elements to the upcoming Benjamin Button…the make-up in the film was tremendous (should have landed an Oscar nod), as was Tim Roth’s performance. Guess I’m in the minority however.
Thank you, McGuff! It does me good to know of at least ONE person out there who puts WALL-E ahead of The Dark Knight (none of my friends gave WALL-E a chance).
That people are not talking about WALL-E as one of the frontrunners at this point in the year is a crime. It deserves so much more than the five nominations we know it’s going to get.
Where, Oh where did the buzz go! XO
Off the topic totally,but I happend to see a clip of Mickey Rourke in the “Wrestler”on you tube, in the scene it was a quiet conversation between him and Evan Rachel Wood and it looked incredible.You could see the pain in his eye’s as he was talking to her…I’m looking forward to seeing it.
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Wrestler
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Soloist
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
N8, I’m with you all the way on this one, but even before TDK stole it’s unconventional underdog title, did we believe it had a chance with this academy? I’m far more concerned that AMPAS screws it out of the wins we assume it will yield than I am with the inevitable snub it will receive for Best Picture.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Oscar over the years it’s that anything can and ultimately will happen.
Consider that Raiders of the Lost Ark, ET, Star Wars, and Titanic were all extremely populist movies- they were nominated. The Dark Knight isn’t such an outside contender.
It’s my opinion that The Dark Knight could easily swoop in on the race, beat the other contenders senseless, then Skyhook out of the theater with a Best Picture Oscar.
I know you’re right, McGuff. Perhaps it’s for the best that TDK stole WALL-E’s thunder, keeping me from getting my hopes too high. A man can dream though…
Add me to the list of people who like Wall-E over TDK. I’d love to see it get niminated for best picture, but it looks like that isn’t going to happen. As for the poll, I think Milk is the favorite.
nominated*
To me, there are self-evident reasons to say Benjamin Button, Milk, and Revolutionary Road, but I can only vote for a frontrunner that I know at least some people have actually seen. Right now, that’s Frost/Nixon, which has had a couple of screenings near me, and from which I’ve heard some real buzz. It may be a Hillary-Clinton frontrunner, but it’s what stands on the most solid ground as I see it.
Does anyone know if/when “Lovely, Still” will get released in NY?
The Dark Knight does not deserve to be in the Best Picture loop. It wasn’t even the best film of the first half of the year.
To answer the question though, Revolutionary Road or Milk is probably the cake taker. The content, the director, and the two lead stars in the former would say that it’s the safe choice. However, I feel that Milk could have a more lasting impact with critics, being that we have a liberal media. Will this being an election year have any patriotic implications on the Oscar race? Maybe not, but it may make more people pay attention to films like Milk, W., and Frost/Nixon.
The Curious Case of Benjamin and Australia feel too idealist and artsy to helm the year of great films. I am sure both will be fantastic, but I just don’t feel like they are the types that the Academy prefers to reward.
It’s all about Button but Rev Road and Frost/Nixon are rounding out the top three. But if I had to pick one as the best picture front runner it’s Button.
Depending on the critical success of “Doubt” , “Revolutionary Road”, and “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” , I believe “Rachel Getting Married” may end up with the most Oscar nominations ( or close to it ) . I agree ,with Aaron, Jonathan Demme is very beloved veteran in the film industry(with the acting, producing, and directing guilds) & “Rachel” is his great comeback to form . Remember, Demme led Tom Hanks to his first Oscar for “Philadelphia”, second Oscar for Jodie Foster (Silence of the Lambs), and Best Supporting Actress for Mary Steenburgen ( “Melvin & Howard”).
Also, in the film’s favor, screenwriter Jenny Lumet was just interviewed by The Hollywood Reporter, NY Times, & the LA Times. She is becoming a celebrity on the level of a Diablo Cody.
Anne Hathaway is not just receiving great kudos for her career- changing performance in “Rachel”, also the dignity and grace she displayed during the tabloid firestorm of her ex-boyfriend All this incredible publicity is providing heat to this film .
Rachel getting Married only has a 73% on RT is that a good indicator for a nomination??
Irregardless of your personal feelings about the Dark Knight, let’s be honest it got amazing reviews and it was a big box office hit. Roger Ebert even said he would be surprised if it was not nominated. Also remember The Return of the King won, which wasn’t that long ago.
I’d feel more positive about The Dark Knight’s chances if it was a global phenomenon on the scale that it is an American one — as it is, it’s been outdone by “Mamma Mia!” on this side of the world. (Hangs head in shame.)
I personally thought WALL-E was a better film too, but seriously, it was never a contender.
On another note, I don’t personally see “The Road” as a real contender for top honours … and the fact that Weinstein was so desperate to get “The Reader” out this year suggests to me that he doesn’t either.
I suspect “The Road” may turn out be more of a niche arthouse pic than people were previously estimating.
With TDK being just short of a billion dollars worldwide right now I think it’s global enough Guy.
Anyhow, Button sure had the most amazing trailer of them all so that’s the current frontrunner for me.
Guy, I agree. I think that The Road, Synecdoche, NY, and possibly Doubt will be this year’s Gone Baby Gone, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, Into the Wild-type crowd.
I thought those were three of last year’s best films, but the lack of Oscar recognition was appalling. It showcased some of the faults that the Academy still has, one of which is rewarding films based purely on spectacle and not substance, like Juno.
The frontrunners
AUSTRALIA
Pic/Director/Orig S/Cinematography/Film Editing/Production Design/Costume Design/Sound Mixing
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Pic/Director/Adapted S/Film Editing
THE DARK KNIGHT
Pic/Director/Supp Actor/Film Editing/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing/Visual Effects/MakeUp
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Pic/Actor/Supp Actor/Adapted S/Cinematography/Original Score
THE READER
Pic/Director/Actress/Supp Actor/Adapted S/Film Editing/Original Score
Shut outs
MILK, TCCOBB, FROST/NIXON
‘The Dark Knight’ deservs to win every Oscar. this year. It is truly a special film. Smart. Dark. And a mirror of the world today; terrorism, political subtexts, etc. This movie is on a scale no other can match this year. The money and the critical acclaim is unprecedented. This film deserves the Academy’s attention. The film with Brad Pitt, from what i’m hearing, is supposed to be dreadful…but I’ll believe it when I see it. Right now, The Dark Knight beats everything until proven otherwise. And, yes, the people of the Academy are considering Oscar love for Dark Knight – this is why WB is heading the Oscar campaign with a re-release. They’re not doing it for nothing.
Roger Ebert said he’d be surprised if ‘The Dark Knight’ was NOT nominated for Best Picture. Roger Ebert has been around longer than Kris Tapley, and Ebert knows what he’s saying. Why would Roger Ebert say that? He’s been around a long time to know how things work. Not having Dark Knight on your Oscar list shows how naive you are.
Frost/Nixon looks so fake and wooden. The guys hairstyles are so fake…and the acting is terrible, judging from the trailer. Everything looks and feels ingenuine. You can see the make-up on the actor’s faces. IT IS JUST COMPLETELY UNCONVINCING AND STIFF. Really bad stuff.
To have Defiance on the top 10 and not The Dark Knight is kind of ludicrous.
John, I can assure you that the acting is not terrible in Frost/Nixon. Sheen and Langella have been playing these characters going back a long way, starting on the stage, so they are very well nuanced in everything David Frost and Richard Nixon. I won’t really speak to the hairstyles or anything, but I promise you the acting will not be bad.
I feel like Changeling and Gran Torino are going to split Eastwood’s chances at Best Picture or Director. I think honestly between them they’ll just walk away with a Best Actress nod for Jolie along some technical nominations for Changeling, and maybe a Best Actor nomination for Eastwood, maybe.
As for the Dark Knight and Wall-E debate, both are remarkable films. The only animated film to ever be nominated for Best Picture, Beauty and the Beast, is dwarfed by Wall-E’s scale. I think if there ever were to be another animated film to get a Best Picture nomination, this is it. The Dark Knight is undeniably the best Super Hero film, if you could even call it that, and if there ever were to be a Super Hero movie to be nominated, this is it. I think it’s silly to write off either one of these films this early.
Wall-E is the best movie of 2008 thus far, but has no shot for Best Picture nomination though. At this uninformed juncture, I’d guess for the 5:
— Curious Case of Benjamin Button
— The Dark Knight
— Gran Torino
— Milk
— Revolutionary Road
(alt. in order: Australia, Doubt, Frost/Nixon)
The only one that I see to have all characteristics of a lock is “Milk,” but the others look like solid prospects. Still potential problems:
“Button” — Based on the excellent trailer, I’m already on the verge of declaring it too strange for Oscar. But if it captures the voting group’s imagination and seduces them with its old-fashioned romantic feel, it could be the reason “Australia” misses out on a nomination.
“Dark Knight” — If older voters don’t take to it as ravenously as the younger block, it could have troubles, but I think it’s a much stronger contender than people seem to be giving it.
“Gran Torino” — It’s Eastwood. December release date. ‘Important’ themes of racial tolerance. Oh, and it’s Eastwood. Only problem is if it turns out to be half-baked/lame.
“Milk” — Possibly ‘too gay,’ but it’s timely, relevant themes, true story, emotionally volatile, oft-overlooked historical figure, adore star in lead, I don’t see how it can miss.
“Revolutionary Road” — Based on a book many consider one of the best (and moost devastasting) ever written, so if Mendes does it even half-justice, it should be something stunning. However, A-list pedigree all around could build up expectations to a point where there’ll be disappointment when people discover (a) how small-scale the story is, or (b) that it’s a cynical, relentless downer.
Jeez, sorry for the typos.
I still think that Dark Knight isn’t better than Wall-e. In fact I love Wall-e and it would be awesome to see it on the final Fivem but I think that is not a real contender now (shame on you Dark Kinght !!! lol).
I think that my 5 in this moment are:
– The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (easily the most original and unique film of the year)
– Revolutionary Road
– Australia o The Soloist
– Milk
– Frost/Nixon
W. is gonna hit hard.
Wall-E is the Best Film of the year so far. Much better than The Dark Knight. It would be sad if Dark Knight got nominated and not Wall-E.
Based on current trailers, my pick would be Milk. Looks like a tremendously important film.
Look, WALL-E is a great movie, but it will win in the category it deserves to win, and we all know what that is. No animated film will ever be nominated for Best Picture again, IMO. This is why they JUST CREATED (less than a decade ago) the Best Animated Feature category.
As for THE DARK KNIGHT getting in there, and the heated discussion about this…tell me…has there EVER been a sequel nominated for Best Picture without its progenitor film being nominated for ANY major awards? Nooooo. So why should it happen now? It’s a possibility, I grant you, but a distant one. I think all superhero movie fans will have to be satisfied that Ledger has a lock on Supporting Actor. Isn’t that good enough for y’all?
For TDK to be nominated, it’d have to be nommed for Best Director and Best Screenplay, plus a host of technical awards. BATMAN BEGINS, as great as it was, as much as we all loved it, was only nominated for Cinematography. FX, sound, sound effects, editing…nothing. Well, it’s the same damn team working on TDK, and the tech credits weren’t demonstrably different this time. Fanboys, get over yourselves. There’s NO WAY Nolan is going to get a director nod when you’ve got Fincher, Aronofsky, Mendes, Daldry, Kaufman, Eastwood, Demme, Finscher, Van Sant, Howard, and (my choices for the inevitable surprise director nominations) Tarsem Singh for THE FALL and Mike Leigh for HAPPY-GO-LUCKY.
BEST PIC NOMINEES:
The Wrestler
Milk
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Synecdoche, NY
BEST DIRECTOR
Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Kaufman, Synedoche NY
Eastwood, Gran Torino
Van Sant, Milk
Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky