In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — September 1, 2008

NUTSHELL: Some might not be daunted by the early mixed-negative buzz on “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (admittedly based on 20 minutes of footage), but the fanboy contingent is the one you’d have expected to give positive notices…for now, I’m a bit worried, hence the film’s drop in a number of areas. But my thoughts on the masterpiece script are well-known by this point. And anything can change once we get a look at the finished film, of course. Meanwhile, significant advances for “Rachel Getting Married” (a film that will have it’s lovers even if I don’t fall among their ranks) and “The Visitor” (expecting an awards push from Overture Films) keep the indies in the fray while the unseen big boys continue to duke it out.

Column: “Make way for the little guys…or not”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Milk”
Focus Features
up
2 “The Soloist”
DreamWorks SKG
down
3 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
up
4 “Defiance”
Paramount Vantage
up
5 “Australia”
20th Century Fox
up
6 “Revolutionary Road”
Paramount Vantage
up
7 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
NEW
8 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
down
9 “Gran Torino”
Warner Bros. Pictures
up
10 “Changeling”
Universal Pictures
down

DIRECTING
1 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
up
2 Joe Wright
“The Soloist”
down
3 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
up
4 Edward Zwick
“Paramount Vantage”
up
5 Christopher Nolan
“The Dark Knight”
up
6 Baz Luhrmann
“Australia”
up
7 Clint Eastwood
“Changeling” (or “Gran Torino”)
down
8 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
down
9 Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”
—
10 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
NEW

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
—
2 Sean Penn
“Milk”
—
3 Viggo Mortensen
“The Road” (or “Good”)
up
4 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
5 Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”
down
6 Leonardo DiCaprio
“Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
down
7 Clint Eastwood
“Gran Torino”
—
8 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
up
9 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
NEW
10 Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”
down

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
—
2 Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
—
3 Charlize Theron
“The Burning Plain”
NEW
4 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
5 Nicole Kidman
“Australia”
up
6 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
down
7 Meryl Streep
“Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
down
8 Sally Hawkins
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
down
9 Michelle Williams
“Wendy and Lucy”
NEW
10 Kristin Scott Thomas
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
—

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
—
2 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Soloist” (or “Tropic Thunder”)
—
3 Kodi Smit-McPhee
“The Road”
—
4 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
—
5 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
up
6 Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”
down
7 Eddie Marsan
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
—
8 Peter O’Toole
“Dean Spanley”
NEW
9 Tobey Maguire
“Brothers”
—
10 Alan Alda
“Nothing But the Truth”
—

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
—
2 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
—
3 Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”
—
4 Rachel Weisz
“The Brothers Bloom”
up
5 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
—
6 Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”
down
7 Queen Latifah
“The Secret Life of Bees”
NEW
8 Elizabeth Banks
“W.”
NEW
9 Rosemarie Dewitt
“Rachel Getting Married”
up
10 Catherine Keener
“The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
down

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Revolutionary Road”
Written by Justin Haythe
Based on the short story by Richard Yates
up
2 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
—
3 “Defiance”
Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick
Based on the book by Nechama Tec
up
4 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
—
5 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
NEW
6 “The Road”
Written by Joe Penhall
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
down
7 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
NEW
8 “The Dark Knight”
Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan
Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan
Based on characters created by Bob Kane
up
9 “Body of Lies”
Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian
Based on the book by David Ignatius
down
10 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his play
down

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
up
2 “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Written by Woody Allen
up
3 “Rachel Getting Married”
Written by Jenny Lumet
up
4 “The Soloist”
Written by Susannah Grant
down
5 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
—
6 “The Visitor”
Written by Thomas McCarthy
up
7 “Seven Pounds”
Written by Grant Nieporte
up
8 “Changeling”
Written by J. Michael Straczynski
down
9 “Synecdoche, New York”
Written by Charlie Kaufman
down
10 “Australia”
Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann
NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
2 “Waltz with Bashir”
Sony Pictures Classics
up
3 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
down
4 “Horton Hears a Who!”
20th Century Fox
—
5 “The Tale of Despereaux”
Universal Pictures
up
6 “Igor”
The Weinstein Company
down
7 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
down
8 “Space Chimps”
20th Century Fox
—
9 “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
DreamWorks SKG
up
10 “Star Wars: The Clone Wars”
Warner Bros. Pictures
down