In Contention

OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — January 26, 2009

NUTSHELL: It’s all but over, right? “Slumdog Millionaire” has this in the bag, right? There are no more surprises, right? These are my best guesses, but you can never get too comfortable with this crowd. The supposed “passion” for the films that made it in over the likes of “The Dark Knight” and “WALL-E” will be put to the test as films like “The Reader” and “Frost/Nixon,” maybe even “Milk” set out to prove their worth more than zero-to-one wins.

Column: “Welcome to phase two”

Sort charts by: Main Categories/Technical Categories

BEST PICTURE
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
—
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Paramount Pictures
—
3 “Milk”
Focus Features
up
4 “The Reader”
The Weinstein Company
up
5 “Frost/Nixon”
Universal Pictures
down

DIRECTING
1 Danny Boyle
“Slumdog Millionaire”
—
2 David Fincher
“The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
—
3 Gus Van Sant
“Milk”
up
4 Stephen Daldry
“The Reader”
up
5 Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”
down

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Sean Penn
“Milk”
—
2 Mickey Rourke
“The Wrestler”
—
3 Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”
—
4 Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
up
5 Richard Jenkins
“The Visitor”
—

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1 Kate Winslet
“The Reader”
up
2 Meryl Streep
“Doubt”
down
3 Anne Hathaway
“Rachel Getting Married”
down
4 Angelina Jolie
“Changling”
up
5 Melissa Leo
“Frozen River”
down

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”
—
2 Robert Downey Jr.
“Tropic Thunder”
—
3 Josh Brolin
“Milk”
—
4 Michael Shannon
“Revolutionary Road”
up
5 Philip Seymour Hoffman
“Doubt”
down

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1 Penélope Cruz
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
up
2 Viola Davis
“Doubt”
up
3 Taraji P. Henson
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
up
4 Marisa Tomei
“The Wrestler”
up
5 Amy Adams
“Doubt”
—

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1 “Slumdog Millionaire”
Written by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the book “Q and A” by Vikas Swarup
—
2 “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
—
3 “The Reader”
Written by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
up
4 “Frost/Nixon”
Written by Peter Morgan
Based on his stage play
down
5 “Doubt”
Written by John Patrick Shanley
Based on his stage play
down

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1 “WALL-E”
Original story by Pete Docter, Andrew Stanton
Screenplay by Jim Reardon, Andrew Stanton
up
2 “Milk”
Written by Dustin Lance Black
—
3 “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Written by Mike Leigh
up
4 “In Bruges”
Written by Martin McDonagh
NEW
5 “Frozen River”
Written by Courtney Hunt
NEW

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1 “WALL-E”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
2 “Kung Fu Panda”
DreamWorks SKG
—
3 “Bolt”
Walt Disney Pictures
up