It’s been three weeks since I took note of the season’s course in this space, and really, there has been no need to put our finger to the wind until last week. And frankly, an author making an ass out of himself in public and Harvey Weinstein sooth-saying anyone who would listen (while an array of fluff pieces on Quentin Tarantino buying the New Beverly hit, a year after it happened) made for little more than an opportunity to fill column inches as we all continue to tread water.
Meanwhile, “The Hurt Locker” has taken the four guilds that truly count, putting it on course for the inevitable. Some are trying to spin the preferential ballot as a non-issue, but that’s just they’re own way of saying they have nothing to write about. And “Avatar” keeps making money.
I’m frankly more interested in the fact that, as Martin Scorsese’s finest film since “Goodfellas” made its way to screens over the weekend, smart critics all over the country somehow turned off their analytical switch to complain about score volume and heavy-handed stylization, completely failing to realize the inherent necessity of the film’s construction and mise-en-scène in the participatory narrative Scorsese laid out.
But I’ll save all that for roughly a year hence, when I’ll inevitably be swimming upstream for yet another misunderstood masterstroke from a popular filmmaker many think has received his share of passes. There is an Oscar season still to cover, after all.
And what a long-winded season it has been — and continues to be. We sit two weeks out and I already feel like the telecast is tardy. And the conclusion has felt a bit foregone for a few weeks now.
Most pundits are having their “Eureka!” moment with “The Hurt Locker”‘s BAFTA dominance over the weekend. But things have really been settled since the PGA awards proved the preferential ballot worked in its favor with a group more often given to the intersection of art and commerce on a standard passion/one-vote ballot. That’s a bingo.
Otherwise, there is plenty to bemoan about the creative direction of the show, though no one is really writing about the two producers being at each other’s throats. I’ll leave it to the industrious. I just want to be a fan here, and dammit, I’m having a hard time of it. “Dread” is the best word to describe my feelings toward the forthcoming festivities, but I’ll try to keep an open mind.
Will there be excitement? Some of the crafts races are certainly neck and neck, but that’s not sexy enough for mainstream media headlines. Seven of the eight major categories appear sewn up. And I shouldn’t even be hesitating on calling it for original screenplay, too, since most of the “Inglourious Basterds” support comes from a place of fandom (the Academy at large likes the movie, but isn’t really taking it seriously). And the last week of tub-thumping on its behalf has rubbed more than a few the wrong way, Mark Boal gaining supporters by the day.
The lead actress race? Plenty want to pump intrigue into that one with this notion or that, but the truth is, a BAFTA win for Meryl Streep would have been an indication that there was a good chunk of support for her. But there just isn’t, and not because she didn’t give a wonderful performance. She’s taken for granted and Sony didn’t hit the pavement hard on her behalf during phase two. Meanwhile, Sandra Bullock has a full head of steam and a studio footing a decent bill. Call it.
Are we ready to start talking Aronofsky, Coens, Corbijn, Garcia, Goldwyn, Greengrass, Iñárritu, Liman, Macdonald, Polanski, Russell, Wallace and, frankly, a season that looks to be even weaker than 2008 yet? Getting there.
In the meantime, let’s steel ourselves for one more week of the media spinning its wheels looking for a fresh angle on matters. I can’t even get this column to 800 words anymore. Most ballots are likely in by now (one major studio has already allowed its phase two campaign to run its course), but they aren’t officially due for another eight days. Then, the great settling, as we’ll have one more week of one of the longest holding patterns in a season that I can recall.
And no, I’m not bitter about it. Dry humping is fun, but pointless. You know?
Comments
60 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Are we there yet?”
I’m calling it a split year. Bigelow gets director, Basterds gets Picture.
I’m not a Tarantino die-hard, but Basterds is a masterwork, a perfect storm in every since. It deserves more than it will win.
Hurt Locker was good. It was not a Best Picture.
Kris, I’m with you and Glenn Kenney about SHUTTER island. You two wrote the most thoughtful assessments. I am troubled by critics who feel they must review Scorsese’s entire career and not the film at hand as well as those who go into the review with a bias against DICaprio beacuse he is not DeNiro. No artist can keep remaking the breakthrough movies of his younger days. No artist would want to.
@ Colby. Split year? In what fantasy reality? The Hurt Locker took PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, BAFTA, and most of the critics awards. It’s rediculous to think that a picture that won none of those precursors would suddenly win best picture, whether that is Avatar or Basterds. I know it is boring for their to be a clean, clear best picture of the year, but The Hurt Locker is that film because… (shocker) it is the best picture. Wow, hard to believe it comes down to something so honest. No James Cameron explanations needed. No Harvey Weinstein campaigning necessary. What a thing to celebrate!
Shocker. It’s just what I’m calling it. I won’t argue that it doesn’t LOOK like Hurt Locker has it in the bag. I’m just saying, my gut says to call it this way. I had the same instinct the year Crash won, and that worked out for me. I go with my gut. And my gut says the preferential voting is going to play to Basterds favor. It won’t be a landslide, no doubt. My gut also says that Basterds is the Best Picture nominated. Hurt Locker was a good film. Not the best.
Colby, are you *sure* that your prediction is not based solely on your personal affection for Inglourious Basterds?
Look, I completely understand where you’re coming from. We all at some point think that our favorite film of the year will pull off some sort of upset and be crowned Best Picture, because it seems so obvious that it is.
But just look at it. When has Oscar ever gone for anything even approaching bloody, pulpy, irreverent, “in-your-face” filmmaking? Hell, it’s lucky to have come THIS far in the race.
I’ll admit personal bias. I genuinely believe that The Hurt Locker is the best film of 2010. Not just of the nominees. The best period. But I also see the writing on the wall, and every critics award, every major precursor besides SAG, and visible momentum points to The Hurt Locker taking this one in a boring but oh so satisfying (for me at least) race.
True, Brokeback Mountain had similar inevitability (and bigger box office success) and it ended up losing. But look at the vicious backlash AMPAS got after that upset. Even if a plurality of voters agree with you about Basterds (and I seriously doubt that), I don’t think they would want to be accused of sexism just four years after being accused of homophobia.
Excuse me, I genuinely believe The Hurt Locker is best film of **2009**. Damn you, insomnia!
Shutter Island is a great film, and worthy of a BP nom I reckon
Robert…I’m sure it’s not only wishful thinking on my part because it’s not my favorite film of the year. I do believe it’s the best out of the nominees, though. When Crash won, I was pulling for Good Night and Good Luck, I had no special feelings for Crash, except that it was going to steal it.
I believe we could see Inglorious Basterds win because I think the Academy will want to honor both Bigelow and Tarantino, and this will be the way to do it.
We all know that the academy splits every couple of years. It’s habit for them. My gut says this year is one of them. It hasn’t happened SINCE Crash. It’s due.
And again, I think most people are really underestimating the power of the preferential system. I believe it will work in Basterds favor.
But don’t get me wrong. I liked Hurt Locker. If it wins, I won’t be upset. As long as Avatar is nowhere near that statue, really.
Colby,
What other awards can you see Basterds winning in addition to picture? I think it would definitely have to win original screenplay in order to win picture. At the moment, I’m predicting it to win screenplay but lose picture to The Hurt Locker. If it loses screenplay to Hurt Locker earlier in the evening, you can pretty much count out Basterds.
joe,
i agree with you. i’m counting on Basterds getting screenplay.
on top of that, supporting actor, obviously. and then i’m calling cinematography and editing.