OSCAR PREDICTION CHARTS — September 15, 2008

NUTSHELL: Movers and shakers on the charts this week include “Gran Torino,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “I’ve Loved You So Long” and “The Wrestler” for various reasons, while the lead actor categories are packed to the brim with potential, making a choice of 10 nearly impossible. As IFC Films gears up a Best Actor push for Benicio Del Toro in “Che,” however, I remain skeptical that the performance can dominate in the category with the film being delivered in two pieces. Aside from Academy members having to decide between the films for their vote, will the distribution approach dampen the impact of the actor’s work? Meanwhile, Josh Brolin falls off the supporting actor chart as it seems co-star James Franco could be the real stand-out from the “Milk” ensemble, but perhaps he can nudge back into the lead actor fray soon enough for his heavily-anticipated work in “W.” Frontrunners remain the still unseen “Frost/Nixon” and “Milk” across the board.

Column: “Looking for quality in the festival world”

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BEST PICTURE
1	“Milk” Focus Features	—
2	“Frost/Nixon” Universal Pictures	—
3	“The Soloist” DreamWorks SKG
4	“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” Paramount Pictures
5	“Australia” 20th Century Fox
6	“Slumdog Millionaire” Fox Searchlight Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures
7	“Revolutionary Road” Paramount Vantage
8	“Gran Torino” Warner Bros. Pictures
9	“Changeling” Universal Pictures
10	“Defiance” Paramount Vantage

DIRECTING
1	Gus Van Sant “Milk”	—
2	Ron Howard “Frost/Nixon”
3	David Fincher “The Curious case of Benjamin Button”
4	Joe Wright “The Soloist”
5	Danny Boyle “Slumdog Millionaire”	NEW
6	Christopher Nolan “The Dark Knight”
7	Baz Luhrmann “Australia”
8	Clint Eastwood “Gran Torino” (or “Changeling”)
9	Darren Aronofsky “The Wrestler”	NEW
10	Edward Zwick “Defiance”

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1	Mickey Rourke “The Wrestler”
2	Frank Langella “Frost/Nixon”
3	Sean Penn “Milk”
4	Clint Eastwood “Gran Torino”
5	Robert Downey Jr. “The Soloist”	NEW
6	Brad Pitt “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
7	Leonardo DiCaprio “Revolutionary Road” (or “Body of Lies”)
8	Michael Sheen “Frost/Nixon”
9	Viggo Mortensen “The Road” (or “Good”)
10	Benicio Del Toro* “The Argentine” (or “Guerrilla”)	NEW

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1	Angelina Jolie “Changling”	—
2	Kristin Scott Thomas “I’ve Loved You So Long”
3	Kate Winslet “Revolutionary Road” (or “The Reader”)
4	Meryl Streep “Doubt” (or “Mamma Mia!”)
5	Nicole Kidman “Australia”
6	Anne Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married”
7	Melissa Leo “Frozen River”
8	Sally Hawkins “Happy-Go-Lucky”	—
9	Michelle Williams “Wendy and Lucy”	—
10	Ellen Burstyn “Lovely, Still”	NEW

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1	Heath Ledger “The Dark Knight”	—
2	Kodi Smit-McPhee “The Road”
3	Michael Shannon “Revolutionary Road”
4	Philip Seymour Hoffman “Doubt”	NEW
5	James Franco “Milk”	NEW
6	Jamie Foxx “The Soloist”	NEW
7	Russell Crowe “Body of Lies”
8	Christian McKay “Me and Orson Welles”	NEW
9	Peter O’Toole “Dean Spanley”	NEW
10	Eddie Marsan “Happy-Go-Lucky”

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1	Penélope Cruz “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”	—
2	Taraji P. Henson “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”	—
3	Marisa Tomei “The Wrestler”	NEW
4	Viola Davis “Doubt”
5	Elsa Zylberstein “I’ve Loved You So Long”	NEW
6	Catherine Keener “The Soloist” (or “Synecdoche, New York”)
7	Elizabeth Banks “W.”
8	Rosemarie Dewitt “Rachel Getting Married”
9	Vera Farmiga “Nothing But the Truth”
10	Kathy Bates “Revolutionary Road”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
1	“Slumdog Millionaire” Written by Simon Beaufoy Based on the book “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup
2	“Frost/Nixon” Written by Peter Morgan Based on his play	—
3	“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” Written by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth, Robin Swicord Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
4	“Revolutionary Road” Written by Justin Haythe Based on the short story by Richard Yates
5	“The Road” Written by Joe Penhall Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy
6	“The Dark Knight” Written by Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan Story by David S. Goyer, Christopher Nolan Based on characters created by Bob Kane
7	“Doubt” Written by John Patrick Shanley Based on his play
8	“The Reader” Written by David Hare Based on the novel by Bernhard Schlink
9	“Body of Lies” Written by William Monahan, Steven Zaillian Based on the book by David Ignatius	—
10	“Defiance” Written by Clay Frohman, Edward Zwick Based on the book by Nechama Tec

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
1	“Milk” Written by Dustin Lance Black	—
2	“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” Written by Woody Allen	—
3	“I’ve Loved You So Long” Written by Philippe Claudel	NEW
4	“The Soloist” Written by Susannah Grant	—
5	“Rachel Getting Married” Written by Jenny Lumet
6	“Happy-Go-Lucky” Written by Mike Leigh
7	“The Visitor” Written by Thomas McCarthy
8	“Gran Torino” Written by Nick Schenk	NEW
9	“Changeling” Written by J. Michael Straczynski	—
10	“Australia” Written by Stuart Beattie, Baz Luhrmann	—

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1	“WALL-E” Walt Disney Pictures	—
2	“Waltz with Bashir” Sony Pictures Classics	—
3	“Kung Fu Panda” DreamWorks SKG	—
4	“Horton Hears a Who!” 20th Century Fox	—
5	“The Tale of Despereaux” Universal Pictures	—
6	“Igor” The Weinstein Company	—
7	“Bolt” Walt Disney Pictures	—
8	“Space Chimps” 20th Century Fox	—
9	“Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa” DreamWorks SKG	—
10	“Star Wars: The Clone Wars” Warner Bros. Pictures	—