The race is pretty much here, in front of our faces. Last night and Wednesday night, “Seven Pounds” finally went before the press at large. We can’t write about the film yet, however. T.L. Stanley does a nice job of reporting last night’s hilarious Q&A session with the film’s principles here.
Basically, all secrets are out on the season; all mysteries are solved. Yet I’m staring at a blank BFCA ballot, due in two days, and I can’t decide what I liked this year. So call me at a loss as to what the AMPAS will truly go for.
This is, without a doubt, the most unconventional Oscar season we’ve ever seen. Personally, I think we’ve got six real contenders. And the five I’m predicting are slowly gelling into “the knowledge.” Maybe. But I stopped being “sure” of things long ago. I’m bracing myself for anything.
The LA critics will speak up on Tuesday and the Gotham crew will chime in the next day. I’m betting on lots of “Slumdog” love on this coast. No idea what’ll happen back east. But by the time everyone starts to go off on holiday, maybe…maybe…the picture will begin to clear up for us all.
Comments
35 responses to “Weird feeling…”
I’ve seen Slumdog get rounds of applause at both AMAPAS/Guilds screenings I’ve attended at the end here on the east coast in NYC. It goes over like gangbusters.
I agree with your previous assessment that it is the film to beat.
I’m rooting for The Dark Knight, The Wrestler and Milk myself. :)
8 contenders
PIC
Slundog Millionaire
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Rachel Getting Married
DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
Jonathan Demme
Stephen Daldry
David Fincher
Darren Aronofsky
Ron Howard
ACTOR
Mickey Rourke
Sean Penn
Frank Langella
Benicio Del Toro
Richard Jenkins
Clint Eastwood
Leonardo DiCaprio
Dev Patel
ACTRESS
Kate Winslet/The Reader
Anne Hathaway
Kristin Scott Thomas
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Cate Blanchett
Sally Hawkins
Kate Winslet/RR
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger
Josh Brolin
Michael Shannon
Ralph Fiennes
Michael Sheen
Philip Seymour Hoffman
James Franco
Bill Irwin
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis
Penelope Cruz
Rosemarie DeWitt
Debra Winger
Marisa Tomei
Taraji P. Jenson
Freida Pinto
Elza Sylberstein
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Happy Go-Lucky
The Wrestler
The Visitor
Frozen River
Wall-E
Gran Torino
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Defiance
Despite what others might think, I don’t think Rachel or Reader are even in the conversation.
So, is Seven Pounds in any way a possibility for any nod?
…uh, I can’t write about it…
Darn, well okay. I might guess at it and say that Will Smith joins an already crowded Best Actor field and one or two of the supporting players deliver tremendously too.
Kris, can you wink once for ” it was good” and wink twice for “it was bad”?
Lose the integrity already and give us your reaction to ‘Seven Pounds’! It’s been driving me nuts trying to figure out what the hell it’s about!
I think that the guilds & their winners are a good indication of what can/will happen at the Oscars. I see this current scenario:
PGA – Slumdog Millionaire
DGA – David Fincher
WGA –
Adapted – Slumdog Millionaire
Original – Milk
SAG ENSEMBLE – Milk
That leaves us with Milk vs. Slumdog vs. Benjamin Button. If “Milk” can win SAG Ensemble and writing honors, look out. Ironically, that is what “Crash” did before it won the Oscar.
I don’t get why Milk is so high on the best picture list, I saw it yesterday and though the cast and story are incredible, I found the film is pretty weak overall.
especially compared to Slumdog Millionaire
Well, not according to the critics, and…. “Milk” seems very accessible to the academy, imo. Even more than Brokeback.
You mentioned “six” films. I assume there your top five in the sidebar, along with Revolutinary Road. The way I see it, Frost/Nixon, The Dark Knight, and Revolutionary Road are fighting for two spots.
It will be interesting to see which way the Academy leans. It would sure be a huge ratings boost if The Dark Knight slipped into the field.
Got a feeling Best Picture winner is between Slumdog, Button, and Milk.
My head says it will be Button, although i’ve always really enjoyed the majority of Danny Boyle’s work (with the exception of The Beach, and Millions).
But, this isn’t a lifetime achievement award.
Ivan:
Dev Patel is supporting. So is Kate Winslet for “The Reader”. Michael Sheen, meanwhile, is lead.
Am I the only one depressed by the idea of either NY or LA film critics voting for Slumdog? Nice enough film and all, but shouldn’t critics aspire to reward something that’s more than merely “cute?” I guess I understand why Academy voters may support the film but shouldn’t critics know better?
Andrew, critics aspire to reward what they believe to be the best. If it happens to be “cute” as you put it (which isn’t a fair assessment in this case), then so be it. Being cute does not mean a film cannot be the best, and critics (at least astute critics) are aware of this. Nothing depressing about that at all.
Andrew, I see where you’re coming from, although I wouldn’t quite word it that way. I always prefer a well done movie like say, No Country or There Will Be Blood (just to take two from last year), to a well done story like that of Slumdog Millionaire simply because the former types of films usually resonate with me more. But with that being said, the best of the year is the best of the year, no matter what the subject matter (although often times I do believe subject matter comes into play with the academy).
This is always where the better critics emerge. You have to be able to recognize the movies that are truly well made, just not your favorites.
I would prefer something such as Doubt or Benjamin Button to be a lot better, but if Slumdog is the best, I won’t be depressed.
Hey that last part rhymed. I’m a poet and I didn’t even know it, hope it don’t blow it.
Scott Ward, you just became my new hero.
As for Seven Pounds, I though Happyness was awful on every single level (my least favorite film of 2006), and I’m not so easy to forgive Muccino for that. And the Crash comparisons aren’t sitting well with me either. I hate to fall into that, “Oh, I hope this movie fails,” politics of the season (I think I’ve been pretty good about it the past few years), but I find myself tempted here.
Just to clarify, and I’m dancing around a little bit since I know SDM is particularly popular on this blog, I have no problem with a critics group rewarding a film that leaves you with an overall warm feeling or something that isn’t as doom and gloom as (to use earlier examples) No Country for Old Men or There Will be Blood might. And if enough of the voting body at a critics’ group feels that Slumdog is the best film of the year, then so be it. Who am I to say they’re “wrong?”
I’m just trying to articulate something that NYFCC member Mike D’Angelo mentioned on his blog yesterday, which is these voting bodies, which see hundreds of films a year all seem to keep rewarding films that are at the forefront of Gurus of Gold meaning a) they’re becoming lock-step with Academy tastes and therefor are probably already irrelevant or b) they suffer from lack of imagination, short-term memory or group think.
I know large voting bodies come down to consensus and compromise which tends to lead to “safe” picks winning and that would benefit a film like Slumdog which has no real detractors (I actually do like the film, I just wouldn’t place it amongst the year’s very best), but I just have a hard time stomaching the top critical minds voting “ditto” to a film that was just celebrated by the walking dead at the NBoR.
You mention “six contenders.” I can’t help but think that they are: Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Revolutionary Road and Slumdog Millionaire.
And with Milk looking to win Best Orig Screenplay, and Adpt probably going to either Slumdog or Benjamin, that looks like your three front-runners for Best Film.
While five of those films are gaining momentum, what’s happening with Revolutionary Road? It may lose its spot to Frost/Nixon.
Same with Actors: Penn, Langella, Rourke and Eastwood are all gaining momentum. But it’s like Leo who? That mean Brad will sneak in there?
Actresses: Gaining mo is Melissa Leo. Add her to Meryl, Kristin and Anne, that leaves one spot for Kate, Cate or Sally.
The best category is Sup Actor: Sure, Heath is a lock, and should win. But other award-caliber perfs are Shannon and Franco, leaving 2 spots for Downey, Brolin, PS Hoffman and Sheen.
Damn, but this is getting exciting.
“ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Happy Go-Lucky
The Wrestler
The Visitor
Frozen River
Wall-E
Gran Torino”
WOW. Talk about underestimating “Burn After Reading.”
What’s going to be this year’s CAPOTE? I honestly don’t feel comfortable calling anything until at least the guilds start announcing. Something like RACHEL GETTING MARRIED or THE WRESTLER could come out of nowhere.
I’m not saying CAPOTE was as unpredictable of a choice, but I recall that conventional wisdom around this time in 2005 said that the film was good for an acting nomination, maybe a screenplay nod, but not much else.
What films do you think the BFCA is leaning towards?
The question is to Kris, BTW.
If Slumdog becomes the one to beat, who´s taking best director? Boyle? Van Sant? NOLAN?? I can´t see this little feel good movie taking the two biggies.
With best actress wide open yet, I think the closest race right now is Viola vs. Penelope for the final win.
For the record, Kris cannot speak or write about Seven Pounds because it is embargoed meaning we critics cannot write about it…at all — if we do we risk losing our status with the studios which allows us advance screenings, interviews and screeners — I remember a Toronto critic breaking the embargo on The Phantom Menace, and he was bounced from the junkets and screenings for some time for some time — much as we want to discuss the films, we are bound by a code not to do so —
Andrew Dignan says: “Am I the only one depressed by the idea of either NY or LA film critics voting for Slumdog? Nice enough film and all, but shouldn’t critics aspire to reward something that’s more than merely “cute?†”
My thing is, if the movie is executed extremely well, shouldn’t that be enough?
Does every single big Oscar-y type of movie that comes down the pike have to be incredibly depressing or ‘serrriioouus’ to be taken seriously? CCBB, Rev. Road, Doubt, F/Nixon, 7 lbs., etc etc … they all look good, but serious.
Every year some big, depressing movie wins (and most of the Top 5 are downers, or very serious). That has the been the trend of late.
‘Slumdog’ has plenty of horrible, serious things in it, but it’s a celebration of the human spirit, and it’s feel-good ending will go far, I feel.
“these voting bodies, which see hundreds of films a year all seem to keep rewarding films that are at the forefront of Gurus of Gold meaning a) they’re becoming lock-step with Academy tastes and therefor are probably already irrelevant or b) they suffer from lack of imagination, short-term memory or group think.”
So, if Slumdog Millionaire was actually the best film of the year, and wins the Oscar for BP, then critics lose their value simply because they wouldn’t throw a bone at a different film. Why should they be imaginative and hand the award to “A Christmas Tale” for instance, when their actual opinion is, that Slumdog Millionaire was the best film.
I’m listening to all the buzz and are hearing no lack of positive buzz for “RR” or DiCaprio and Winslet’s performances .
In the coming weeks we have BFCA,GG, and SAGS , and then we won’t have to worry about ‘selective hearing’
Why aren’t “The Wrestler” and “Doubt” being taken as legit contenders? I have heard nothing but positive things about the first.
I just don’t understand the love for Slumdog. It is painfully cliche and its visual style detracted from its message. It was an extremely average film. Ugh.
Frost/Nixon might be the only one the successfully combine fun and seriousness. Another reason why it will be nominated.
I think “Slumdog Millionaire” does a better job in that department, Jonathan. Harrowing at points, but overall, it’s a blast.