Just a note on some upcoming pieces here at In Contention. This year's Best Picture race seems to be the most wide open field in Oscar history. Any one of the five nominees has a shot at taking the prize. As such, I figure it's only wise to distinguish each entry, so I'll be talking to the talent involved and writing a piece on each film. It all began last week with "Little Miss Sunshine." Up next: "The Queen" and "Babel."

The Screen Actors Guild really botched the opportunity to stir things up tonight, seemingly doing what they have been told throughout the season and bestowing their acting awards upon pretty much the expected lot.

"Little Miss Sunshine" took the award for Best Cast in a Motion Picture, but failed to pick up wins in the supporting categories for Abigail Breslin and Alan Arkin. "Dreamgirls," meanwhile, took home wins in two of its three nominated categories, the most awarded film of the night, yet, not a Best Picture Oscar nominee. All wins were telegraphed, predicted from here (well, not here) to eternity, and pretty much sum up the buzz that was being generated two weeks ago.

"The Departed," again, seems to be lacking embrace from the actors, shockingly enough. This is the best film nominated for Best Picture this year, with an array of stellar performances. Now we see one acting nomination at the Academy, no wins from the SAG, and a pretty clear indication that the actors branch isn't as supportive of the film as may have been assumed.

Elsewhere, well, don't get me started on one hell of a failure to award the cast of "Deadwood." David Milch's brilliant tapestry is one of, if not the smartest show on television that was unceremoniously cancelled after three seasons, leaving the fates of themes, characters and stories hanging in the balance. Here's hoping those two feature films actually come to fruition.

By far the most wonderful speech of the night had to be Chandra Wilson's, who won Best Lead Actress in a drama for "Grey's Anatomy." She nearly brought tears to this big oaf's eyes when she ended a humbling and lovely diatribe of appreciation by stating "thank you for accepting me as I am."

Somehow awards groups keep considering Alec Baldwin's "performance" in "30 Rock" a performance rather than reading gobs and gobs of sarcastic, steadily humorless Tina Fey-ish dialogue. At least they got it right with "The Office," though it is hard to really pick the "best" between that show and "Entourage," I must say. But ultimately, I guess "right" is subjective - same as it ever was.

Which brings me to ask "the question." Are these REALLY the "best" performances of the year? Really? Save for Forest Whitaker (and there might be an argument there), I'm not convinced these victors of the motion picture categories are the most lived-in, the most achieved, the most accomplished of their categories, let alone the year. How is it that this happens every year? The critics get behind a number of performances early in the season and pretty much brainwash the rest of the industry for the duration.

But the thing to remember her is what is noted at the top: tonight's awards reflect the concensus of a few weeks ago, and the real campaign, the one that matters, started five days ago. There are films in the big Oscar mixture that weren't even singled out by the guilds. There is plenty of life out there and really, a lot of this race is ripe and ready for the taking.

Let's see how Phase Two plays out. God willing, the Academy continues to think for themselves like they did last Tuesday.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Leading Role
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

TELEVISION

Outstanding Ensemble in a Dramatic Series
"Grey's Anatomy"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Laurie, "House"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Drama Series
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy"

Outstanding Ensemble in a Comedy Series
"The Office"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Comedy Series
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"

Outstanding Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Helen Mirren, "Elizabeth I"

Outstanding Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Jeremy Irons, "Elizabeth I"

TRIBUTES

Voice Over Actors
(Presented by Keifer Sutherland)

Julie Andrews
(Lifetime Achievement Award, Presented by Anne Hathaway and Dick Van Dyke)

In Memoriam
(Presented by Dennis Haysbert)

The Screen Actors Guild awards will land Sunday night, and in a season that has proven itself just this week to be a bit less confined by the status quo than we would have expected, anything seemingly can happen. The race everyone will be looking to is Best Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture, where two of this year's Best Picture nominees sit perched for the beginnings of a final sprint to the finish.

Here's a look at how I expect the night to unfold.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Predicted winner: Jennifer Hudson
Back-Up: Abigail Breslin

It's really left to be seen whether the industry itself is as high on Jennifer Hudson's "Dreamgirls" performance as the critical world has been, but I'll predict her to take the win despite myself. I have the lurking suspicion that Abigail Breslin could surprise the lot and pop up as the big winner here, but however things shake down, the truly deserving actress (Kikuchi) will remain empty-handed.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

Predicted winner: Alan Arkin
Back-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio

A lot of folks out there in prognostication land expect the actors' only opportunity to reward Leonardo DiCaprio's "Departed" performance will show itself through the vote turnout in this category. I'm not so sure, especially given the fact that he's nominated elsewhere and could suffer vote-splitting. I also think the Eddie Murphy train will have stopped with the HFPA and Alan Arkin will begin his long road to an Oscar win with a triumph here.

The SAG likes its veterans. You'll recall wins in the past for Christopher Walken, Ian McKellan, Helen Mirren, Albert Finney, Judi Dench, Robert Duvall, Gloria Stuart (in a tie), Lauren Bacall and Ed Harris. And those are just the examples that didn't translate into Oscar success. Additionally, nominations have come for Sally Field, James Earl Jones, Stockard Channing, Gena Rowlands, Pam Grier, Kevin Kline, Cloris Leachman and James Garner when Oscar didn't come knocking. Suffice it to say, they dig the old-timers. Even more than they dig child actors.

This is where Alan Arkin's Oscar campaign gets its nitro.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate winslet, "Little Children"

Predicted winner: Helen Mirren
Back-Up: Judi Dench

On the stunning condition that Helen Mirren doesn't continue her precursor dominance her e(and after all, she DID win recently enough), I'd expect Judi Dench to be the one to slip in and steal the win rather than Meryl Streep (though I concede she too has won recently). But who am I kidding? The 2006-2007 film awards season is Helen Mirren's bitch.

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Predicted winner: Peter O'Toole
Back-Up: Forest Whitaker

This is the first time since 1997 that the SAG's Best Actor category has matched the Academy's 100%. This is also a race at the Oscars many have chalked up for Forest Whitaker, and with due cause. Whitaker's performance as Idi Amin in Kevin Macdonald's "The Last King of Scotland" has DOMINATED the precursor circuit. But we're on a whole different playing field now, and if the Guild looks likely to toss a wrench into this year's Oscar expectations, this is where I think it'll happen.

You might know by now that Miramax sent out over 100,000 DVD screeners of "Venus" to the entire SAG membership, a strategy emplyed once before, when Lionsgate hawked a collection of "Crash" to acting households across the country. While that is a hell of a tactic, I don't expect saturation to be the only factor in Peter O'Toole's winning this award.

This is PETER O'TOOLE, an actor's actor. This is an awards show in its infancy that hasn't had the opportunity to nominate O'Toole, let alone award him a statue. To boot, the veteran thespian is portraying an actor in Roger Michell's film, a definite plus for a membership thatconsists of plenty of struggling performers. This isn't the uppity Academy membership we're talking about here. So while I don't think O'Toole will duplicate his SAG success at the Oscars, he certainly has the right role to win big here with a group that loves its veterans. It'll be a brutal two-way fight for the Oscar in the eyes of many following Sunday night.

Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"

Predicted Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Back-Up: "The Departed"

And here's the big race. "Dreamgirls" and "Bobby" make themselves apparent here, but not with oscar, while the remaining three nominees are in the thick of the Best Picture hunt. Whoever wins here, mustering definitive support from the actors' branch, will have a leg up at the Oscars. But who will it be?

When you think of how this year has come to be defined, you have to consider the modest tale that is "Little Miss Sunshine." The Guild loves their comedies, but besides that, this film is the true organic ensemble of the bunch. Sure, "Babel" has a more complicated ensemble, while "The Departed" boasts more demanding portrayals and therefore more electrifying performances, but "Little Miss Sunshine" is the film that truly feels like an ensemble performance film. It is a family's antics unfolding on screen, with all age groups represented. And you just...can't...root...against...this...film.

I'm predicting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to win the Oscar at the moment, if for no other reason than I expect its buzz is just beginning, rather than drawing to a close. But if any film can topple it at the Oscars, it's "Little Miss Sunshine." The SAG Ensemble award will be a hell of a start.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) Predictions

Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Ensemble: "Little Miss Sunshine"

The Academy’s nominations announcement has come and gone. So what have the craftsmen and craftswomen told us this year?

The first thing that jumps to mind is that the branches weren’t afraid to think for themselves this year.

For the first time since the black-and-white and color categories merged in 1967, the Best cinematography category is completely void of Best Picture nominees. Tom Stern (“Letters from Iwo Jima”), Rodrigo Prieto (“Babel”) and Michael Ballhaus (“The Departed”) are all MIA. The branch also continues to shy, unapologetically, away from digital photography. Dean Semler’s work on “Apocalypto” was a guild nominee seemingly on track for an Oscar mention.

For everyone involved with the Cinderella story that is “Little Miss Sunshine,” yesterday’s Oscar nominations announcement was the highest of highs in a season full of them. But what began as the solitary vision of a screenwriter hammering out 54 page days in a modest Brooklyn apartment grew to become a collaboration indicative of the very essence of the filmmaking process.

Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa share producing credits with David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub. Directing couple Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris took the reins behind the camera in their feature filmmaking debut. And on the screen, one of the most critically and popularly lauded ensembles of the year performs as a dysfunctional yet endearing organism of the modern cinema.

An Academy Award nominee for Best Supporting Actress, 10 year old Abigail Breslin summed things up nicely yesterday when she said, “I can’t believe how very lucky I am. I love everybody involved with ‘Little Miss Sunshine.’ This truly feels like one big family celebration.”

But as many know, the road didn’t always appear to be heading in this direction. Five years of financing and refinancing, numerous revisions from writer Michael Arndt that included the creation of eight separate endings (Mr. Arndt was even fired from, then re-hired on his own screenplay) and the pressure of finishing production in time for the 2006 Sundance Film Festival made for a bumpy journey.

“Our only hope was that the movie get made,” Mr. Berger told me yesterday, calling from his Bona Fide Productions offices in Los Angeles. “This is all wildly beyond anything we could have ever predicted.”

Mr. Berger’s producing partner, Ron Yerxa, agreed, calling attention to how a story like that of “Little Miss Sunshine” would certainly appeal to an industry constantly in search of similar diamonds in the rough.

“Sometimes you can’t extrapolate widely enough that something with such humble origins can become a Best Picture nominee,” he said, calling from this year’s Sundance Film Festival. “But people felt like they discovered an underdog that wasn’t homogenized and pasteurized in the system. For anyone who wants to do sharp character stories and comedies, it has to be seen as an inspiration.”

Indeed, the film’s eventual emergence as one of the year’s five Best Picture nominees should be seen as a testament to fortitude and dreaming the dream. As Mr. Arndt told me yesterday after hearing the Academy’s announcement, “I knew that there were a lot of people out there who loved the film, but this is the ultimate validation of the idea that the film industry is democratic. A year ago we were hoping to get a distribution deal and now we have four Oscar nominations.”

For directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Mr. Arndt’s screenplay was the opportunity they had been looking for to make the transition to feature filmmaking efforts. Fans of director Hal Ashby, Mr. Dayton and Ms. Faris had longed for movies painted with the strokes of humanism that came to define his greatest work.

“The script made me laugh at the way people really do live,” Mr. Dayton said in a telephone interview along with his wife, Ms. Faris. “It was actually about something. And it’s not like anyone expected to get rich over this movie. Everyone involved did it because they loved the material.”

Ms. Faris agreed, adding, “One of the things that really hooked me was the Dwayne character. I understood everything from ‘I hate everyone’ to ‘Go hug Mom.’ It captured all the reality and anger and emotion of being a teenager.”

The directors were unable to translate their Directors Guild nomination into a directing nomination from the Academy, so the morning was bitter sweet in some sense. But being singled out personally ran a distant second to the reward that is seeing a modest creation embraced so warmly and with such absolution.

“We’ve said it before, but we feel like we’ve won already,” Ms. Faris said. Her husband and partner concurred, adding “We’re incredibly spoiled. I’d be the first to admit it.”

What remains now is whether “Little Miss Sunshine” can pull the final rabbit out of the hat and grace the stage at the Kodak Theater as 2006’s Best Picture champion. In a season that ultimately came to defy conventional prognosticating wisdom, surely anything can happen. But due to arbitration and Academy regulations, only three of the film’s five producers can gain admittance to the film’s listed nominees.

Mr. Dayton says he and Ms. Faris are writing a letter to the Academy in the hopes that all five men could be recognized. The Producers Guild of America saw fit that each was worthy of inclusion, and typically the Academy follows the guild’s judgment.

“We support the Academy’s desire to reduce the number of producers to those actually involved,” Mr. Dayton said. “It’s just unfortunate that they’ve chosen this arbitrary number of three.”

Mr. Berger noted the value of the collaboration and how important each producer was to the process. “We worked very effectively with these guys,” he said, “and we thought the Producers Guild gave the right decision. We’ll have to see what the Academy says after they go through their process.”

Mr. Yerxa agreed, adding that he and Mr. Berger “are not critical of the Academy’s decision. They’re in a really tough position that they haven’t been in before.”

In the end, “Little Miss Sunshine” is clearly the product of group effort, no more or less than the next film. It has been held under a magnifying glass in that respect this year, drawing more attention to the process than tends to see the light of day. But you won’t find anyone involved straining for individual credit. They are quite proud of what their artistic communion has yielded.

If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is equally proud of the cinema as a collaborative art form, they could do a lot worse than to deem each producer involved an eligible participant. But no matter what the outcome, that yellow VW wagon will keep chugging along in the hearts and minds of those brave enough to embrace idealism and dream big.

The Main and Tech Category charts have been updated, linked both below and in the side bar. I have ranked all nominees in order of likelihood for the win. Please note that prior rankings were in order of likelihood for nominations.

Now...this day needs to be over. What a dizzy time it's been.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

I've tried to hold this until the end of the day. You know, happy thoughts and such. But while the Academy's announcement this morning was refreshingly "out of the box" in a number of arenas, I have to say that elsewhere, disasters are lurking.

An Oscar strategist pointed out the obvious to me immediately this morning, noting how incredibly lack-luster and downright incomprehensible the acting branch's decisions have become. These four categories rounded themselves out in a very predictable fashion as the season rolled around, and indeed, the only SAG snubee to show up was Mark Wahlberg. But what many seemed to be ignoring was the fact that, by and large, the actors backed some lame performances all season long.

Leonardo DiCaprio is great in "Blood Diamond," but it isn't an Oscar candidate by a long shot. And Djimon Hounsou, love him though I do, is nothing to write home about opposite Leo. I guess they just can't keep making it up to him for the "Amistad" snub, the one performance of his career that has truly deserved awards recognition.

The kool aid has been chugged by the gallon on Jennifer Hudson, whose "performance" in "Dreamgirls" remains the most overrated of the year. The girl's got the pipes, but she ain't got the stripes. Meanwhile, Meryl Streep's work in "The Devil Wears Prada" probably follows close behind in the "overrated" column. The entire industry has just run with the "fact" that this is somehow an accomplished turn.

Where's the love for thr truly daring performances that exhibit tour de force portrayals? Laura Dern in "Inland Empire?" She lost herself in that film with a madman behind the camera. Sergi López in the clearly beloved "Pan's Labyrinth?" I was scared shitless. Gael García Bernal in "The Science of Sleep?" The Academy isn't nearly cool enough yet to nominate such a performance, but this is the best portrayal on screens this year. Clive Owen in "Children of Men?" One of the most demanding and subtly brilliant performances of 2006. The wonderfully organic cast of Best Picture nominee "Letters from Iwo Jima?" The exceptional ensemble of "The Departed?"

And where the hell is "A Praire Home Companion?" Yes, Robert Altman's final film - one of the most rebelious and free-thinking filmmakers in cinematic history - came up with zero Oscar nominations. I don't even consider myself a major fan of the director, but "A Prairie Home Companion" deserved some sort of notice. It is one of his finest outings, and the perfect note on which to end his grand and singular career.

My fellow writers also let me down, snubbing the likes of "Brick," "The Last King of Scotland" and "Thank You for Smoking," among others.

Let's mosey into the technical categories, where things really get out of hand. Three of "Blood Diamond"'s five nominations are represented here, and while I can go with the sound mixers' branch chalking up the film in their lot - Best Sound Editing and, most shockingly, FILM EDITING? The latter category had a bevy of deserving candidates, everything from the wonderful mosaic of "The Last King of Scotland" to the artistic inegenuity of "Shortbus" deserved some props there. Sound Editing? Where is the specificity of "Happy Feet?" The horrifying work of "World Trade Center?" Sheesh.

Don't even get me started on Best Original Score, where not only was one of the finest works of film music composition this DECADE ignored (Clint Mansell's "The Fountain"), but so was Alexandre Deplat's most vivid and arresting work yet, "The Painted Veil." And I guess one should never expect the AMPAS to be so smooth as to allow Terrence Blanchard to finally join the party, ignoring him for fantastic work on "25th Hour" in 2002 and now, for one of the best scores of the year, "Inside Man."

No love for the unique "Strange than Fiction," nothing for the exhilarating "Breaking and Entering" and, clearly, no signs of embracing experimentation and allowing "The Fountain," "Inland Empire" and/or "Shortbus" into the fray. Some things...never change. But I guess it goes without saying, any Oscar announcement is going to have its fair share of disappointments. You will have yours. These are mine.

And the beat goes on.

I even took a nap, and still, I'm reeling.

It was a pleasure talking to some of the lucky nominees this morning. You never can get too much of a person's cloud nine excitement. So my congrats to everyone who landed safely this morning. It should be an interesting race from here on out.

Speaking of which, the sidebar has been updated with the full list of nominees and my first stabs at predicting winners, indicated by asterisks. I need to do a little research on the short film categories before venturing guesses there. But for now, I'm expecting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to take the cake. Anything can happen in this Oscar race, though, so don't place you bets too strongly just yet.

After a few weeks of frigid, citrus terrorizing temperatures, if you step outside this morning in Los Angeles, it's a beautiful, cloudless, sunny day. But it's a little sunnier for those who were greeted with Oscar nominations, whether expected or unexpected. I had the opportunity to talk with a few of the lucky souls who've had the pleasure of fielding phone call after phone call this morning. Here's what they had to say.

Lots of happiness in the Fox Searchlight camp today, as the little film that could, "Little Miss Sunshine" made its way to four Oscar nominations including Best Picture and, not surprisingly, Best Original Screenplay for Michael Arndt. I called Michael around 7:45 this morning to get his reaction, and he was still the same modest fellow I spoke to face to face over the weekend.

"I knew that there were a lot of people out there who loved the film," he told me, "but this is the ultimate validation of the idea that the film industry is democratic. A year ago we were hoping to get a distribution deal and now we have four Oscar nominations."

Michael says he went to sleep pretty easily (and who wouldn't, in his shoes), but that didn't stop him from waking up at three o'clock and suffering insomnia throughout the rest of the early morning hours. Suffice it to say, he was wide awake when he heard his name called this morning.

Best Supporting Actor nominee Jackie Earle Haley ("Little Children") has to be the happiest guy in the business this morning. "I think I'd have to agree with you on that," he told me, calling from his home in San Antonio. "This is just unbelievably crazy. They need to invent a few more words, because every adjective, this is just a little bit better."

The most adorable and giddy Oscar nominee you could expect to talk to, Haley was clearly on cloud nine, even hitting bouts of speechlessness during our conversation. Funnily enough, even in the central time zone, Jackie was asleep when the announcement hit. His wife ran into the bedroom screaming and crying, "You got it!" "We just hugged each other and cried for, like, five minutes," Haley said.

One of today's nominees was actually surpsinginly snubbed for his work on "Good Night, and Good Luck." last year, film editor Stephen Mirrione. Mirrione and Douglas Crise shared one of "Babel"'s seven nominations this morning.

"The types of movies I gravitate towards aren't really mainstream movies," he told me via telephone shortly after the nominations were announced. "So I'm pleasantly surprised when they become so widely accepted, even if I know the material I'm working with is exceptional. And I owe a lot to wonderful performances."

Crise has served as Mirrione's first assistant editors for ten years. This year he got the bump to co-editor because "Babel" started shooting before Mirrione had finished work on "Good Night, and Good Luck." Now the longtime collaborators get to share in the spoils of an Oscar nomination together.

Another nominee who has felt the sting of Oscar's avoidance is Patrick Marber, nominated today for his adapted screenplay "Notes on a Scandal," based on the novel by Zoe Heller. In fact, when Marber failed to score a WGA nomination for his work two weeks ago, he says it felt exactly how the circumstance of "Closer" played out in 2004, for which he received BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations, but found no such luck with the guild and with the Academy. Suffice it to say, he was pleasantly surprised this morning.

"Being nominated is a lot more fun than not being nominated," he told me, calling from London. "You suddenly get lots of phone calls from people you haven't spoken to in years. And it's huge for us, for the film, to get four nominations. Judi and I texted each other, and I got a one word email from Zoe: 'Yay.' She's always to the point."

Finally, one of the big stories of the morning was Picturehouse's six nomination haul for Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth." Hitting the ground running in its inaugural year, Picturehouse had two critically lauded efforts hit screens in "Pan's" and director Robert Altman's "A Prairie Home Companion." Picturehouse president Bob Berney concedes that it was a shame not to land at least one mention for Altman's golden-hued, poignant swansong, but it was bittersweet considering the surprising glut of appreciation thrown the way of "Pan's Labyrinth."

"We decided to come out at the very end, but to do that, you have to know you've got a great film," he told me earlier this morning. "It's cool to get these broader nominations outside of the foreign film category, because this really is such a group effort. You get a lot of energy from this film and it just takes you back to the joy of movies."

Berney conceded that a lesson learned in this introductory year for his studio was the subtlety of positioning your film as an underdog. The strategy paid off in spades this morning, and the president affirms that he and his team are ready to do it all over again next Oscar season.

For the first time in Oscar history, the leading nominations tally does not include a Best Picture nod. This is a shocking turn of events indeed. "Dreamgirls"'s exclusion from the big five joins "Volver"'s exclusion from Best Foreign Language Film as the biggest snubs of the lot.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences deserves some props this morning. They went their own way, like they always do. And in a race that really seemed locking down slowly in various races, we were met with a ton of surprises.

Best Picture nominees "Babel" and "The Queen" followed "Dreamgirls" with 7 and 6 nominations respectively, while the little film that could, "Little Miss Sunshine," racked up four. "Pan's Labyrinth" was also well-liked, taking down six mentions. But the real story of the morning has to be "Letters from Iwo Jima," which apparently made its way into more than a few DVD players over the holidays last month, pushed its way to a four nod tally including Best Picture and Best Director.

And guess what? I think "Letters from Iwo Jima" wins this Best Picture race.

I know I made this prediction back in December immediately after seeing the film, but as the guild tally looked bleaker and bleaker, I caved with the general concensus. I even predicted it to be shut out of the noms completely. Yet here it is, strangely absent in a number of races, but popping up where it matters. So how is the Academy going to shrug off the opportunity to hand Oscars to Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Martin Scorsese in one night? I don't know, I just have that tingly feeling inside, and for now, I think "Letters" wins this race - at least for now.

I guess I wish I'd have stuck to my guns, but honestly, it ain't over yet. This still curiously seems like anyone's race. Even "Little Miss Sunshine" has a film like "Driving Miss Daisy" to hang its hopes on, considering Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris could easily join the company of Bruce Beresford. They may have missed a directing nomination, but their film just won the PGA on Saturday, and in a race that has proven itself this morning to be more unpredictable than we could have imagined, I say even "Little Miss Sunshine" is still in the running.

So there we are, we got some shockers after all. Leonardo DiCaprio popped up for "Blood Diamond" and "The Departed" was apparently not as embraced by the actors as we may have thought, landing a solitary nomination for Mark Wahlberg. Paul Greengrass landed that Best Director nomination for "United 93," and what a deserving mention it is. But my personal congrats have to go to Wally Pfister, now a two time nominee and showing himself formidable with a well-deserved cinematography nomination for "The Prestige."

As for my predictions, I landed 69 of the nominees in the top 21 categories, 32 nominees in the top 8 categories - which is either good or bad, you tell me. The only categories I landed 100% were Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Best Visual Effects. Oh, and I'm pretty sure I'm the only bloke that predicted "Click" to show up in Best Makeup. Three words: "The Time Machine."

Anyway, what a morning. Wish I had more sleep. Now I just want an egg mcmuffin.

That's all I can say right now. More thoughts coming...

LAST MINUTE CHANGE!! - Nerves always get the better of me, and I invariably change a prediction at the last minute. This year, it's in the Best Original Screenplay category, where I've decided to go with Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth" over Paul Greengrass's "United 93," the battle of the critical darlings.

Tomorrow’s the big day. Today’s the last crunch. And with the AMPAS announcement less than 24 hours away, I’m not sure we’ve had such a clear portrait of the Best Picture line-up in quite some time.

2004 seemed pretty cut and dry, but there were still those expecting “Hotel Rwanda” to show up. 2003 also seems like it was an obvious fiver in hindsight, if not for the feeling that Miramax just had to continue that 10 year streak with a “Cold Mountain” mention. Every year, really, it seems that there is at least one film that could surprise and push its way into the fray. This season, however, you’d really have to be reckless to stray outside of the agreed upon “five.”

But hey, that doesn’t mean there aren’t 23 other categories up for grabs!

Gerard placed his chips over the weekend, and I’ve finally run a comb through my predictions to come up with what follows. In many cases, I’ve gone the safe route. I get the feeling trusting the guilds might be the best course of action this year, more so than any other year. At the same time, I have some gut instincts I’m going with here and there, mostly in the technical categories, which may or may not pan out. I long for something to turn my head, but to be quite honest, I expect to be nodding it with the fulfillment of expectation for much of tomorrow morning.

But enough talking – time to put my money where my mouth is. Below you’ll find brief analysis of each category. Full predictions are listed (and can also be found in the sidebar), while each section is accompanied by an alternate and a stab at a potential shocker. I’m labeling the latter my “Left Field” predictions. You can also find the Oscar charts, updated in full, linked at the bottom of the page.

Enjoy the predictions, and here’s to an exciting morning tomorrow.

Best Visual Effects: The bake-off list narrowed this category down for us somewhat, leaving the two locks present and accounted for: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns.” Beyond that, you can really expect pretty much any of the contenders to show up. Despite a weak box office showing and a critical thrashing, I’m going to go with “Poseidon” in the final position.
Also Watch Out For: “X-Men: The Last Stand”
Left Field: “Casino Royale”

Best Sound Editing: The Motion Picture Sound Editors sadly will be revealing their nominees after the Academy’s announcement, so we really have no precursor to look to in this category. I’m still pretty solid on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Cars,” and I figure “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Superman Returns” can slide into position easily enough. Given that the fifth slot seems so up in the air (and this is the first year the category has widened to five nominees), I’m thinking something like “Poseidon” can actually show up. They love their water movies.
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Happy Feet”

Best Sound Mixing: The Cinema Audio Society really cleared things up in this category last week, and their list of nominees seems safe enough to me. The Society doesn’t often line up 100% with the Academy, but I honestly don’t know what film(s) to count out and what the replacement(s) would be. So I’ll side with the CAS and stick with “Babel,” “Blood Diamond,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Departed”
Left Field: “Children of Men”

Best Music – Original Song: Everything from “Charlotte’s Web” to “Home of the Brave” could show up in this category. Additionally, the amount of nominees could round out to a shabby three like last year. “Dreamgirls” could even command 60% of the field, but I’ll stick with one “Dreamgirls” tune joining “Bobby,” “Cars,” “Happy Feet” and “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Also Watch Out For: “Borat”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Music – Original Score: Talk about a category that is creating mass confusion. With no precursor of note to guide prognostication, we’re pretty much left with history and gut instinct as to which composers will get in year after year – and typically, this in an insular bunch. I don’t expect Alexandre Desplat and Philip Glass can achieve double nominations in the fashion of vets like John Williams and James Horner in the past, but their work on “The Painted Veil” and “The Illusionist,” respectively, seem to be neck and neck for the ultimate win. In a bind, they’ve got “The Queen” and “Notes on a Scandal” to fall back on. Beyond that duo, last year’s victor, Gustavo Santaolalla, has had a decent run in the admittedly beside-the-point precursor circuit for “Babel.” It’s not a traditional score, but neither was Alberto Iglesias’s work on “The Constant Gardener” last year. To round it out, I am going to go with the feeling that, in a year full of great scores like “Brick,” “The Fountain” and “The Lives of Others,” the branch will stick to their own and nominate Thomas Newman twice, for “The Good German” and “Little Children.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Fountain”
Left Field: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

Best Makeup: Another category where a bake-off list narrows it down, I really feel like we may be in for a surprise. This is a branch that tends to appreciate realistic artistry more often than creative ingenuity, and even with exceptions to that flimsy rule, I wonder if something like “Pan’s Labyrinth” will fall flatter than expected given that its hopes hinge on the work put into just two characters. Similar objections might be made against “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” but I somehow expect Ve Neill and company will still find some space to breath. Former nominee Keith Vanderlaan also feels like a solid bet for the tribal period work on “Apocalypto.” For the last spot, I’ve suspected for a while (and a reader posted similar thoughts in the comments section yesterday) that Rick Baker could slide in for one of his two efforts, and in a category that never fails to surprise, I somehow think a nomination for the aging work in “Click” isn’t so far-fetched.
Also Watch Out For: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Left Field: “The Santa Claus 3: The Escape Clause”

Best Film Editing: The American Cinema Editors tossed an interesting log onto the fire in the form of Stuart Baird and “Casino Royale” grabbing a mention, but I expect the surprises will stop there and we’ll see a line-up largely reflective of the Best Picture category. I’m banking on “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Queen” and “United 93.”
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”

Best Costume Design: The Costume Designers Guild seems to disagree with the Academy more often than not, but I get the feeling that fifteen nominees make the field wide enough to land at least the bulk of the eventual nominees. I’m not buying the expectations for “The Devil Wears Prada,” considering this is a branch that avoids contemporary product like the plague, no matter how integral to the film’s plot. So I’m sticking with “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Illusionist,” “Marie Antoinette” and, in a slight surprise, Oscar favorite Jenny Beaven showing up for “The Black Dahlia.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Devil Wears Prada”
Left Field: “Infamous”

Best Cinematography: The American Society of Cinematographers really threw a wrench into the works when they announced their nominees a few weeks back. In fact, they kept the Best Picture mix clouded for a short time, leaving all frontrunners off their short list. Usually the group misses one, and though I feel like Vilmos Zsigmond could surprisingly translate his guild nod for “The Black Dahlia” to an Oscar nomination, I’m joining the crow and leaving him off here. “Apocalypto” could also be left off the list, considering the guild digs on digital more so than the Academy, but I’ll stick with Dean Semler. I expect him to join Emmanuel Lubezki (“Children of Men”), Robert Richardson (“The Good Shepherd”) and Dick Pope (“The Illusionist”) in the eventual line-up. That leaves Tobias A. Schliessler and his vibrant work on “Dreamgirls” standing out as the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch.
Also Watch Out For: “Babel”
Left Field: “Flags of Our Fathers”

Best Art Direction: With the splitting off of the fantasy and period categories at the Art Directors Guild this year, we’re left with fifteen nominees to peruse for ultimate Oscar consideration. I think period nominees “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “The Prestige” will join fantasy nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” a the big dance, with “Children of Men” being a surprise omission.
Also Watch Out For: “Children of Men”
Left Field: “Superman Returns”

Best Animated Feature Film: Too bad for two unlucky films that this category was reduced down to a three-contender arena few weeks ago with the departure of one of the qualifying films, but I don’t think it made much of a difference for frontrunners “Cars” and “Happy Feet.” For the last slot, I’m sticking with what the Annies told us and what the box office reflected, giving the edge to Dreamworks and “Over the Hedge.”
Also Watch Out For: “Monster House”
Left Field: “Ice Age: The Meltdown”

Best Original Screenplay: I was personally quite appreciative of the Writers Guild’s choices for nominees in this category, and expect only “Stranger than Fiction” to fall by the wayside. This will be a brutal fight between “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” so fellow nominees “Babel,” “Volver” and (hanging it out there for this one) “Pan’s Labyrinth” will have to enjoy the spectacle…if, in fact, my predictions pan out.
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “The Lives of Others”

Best Adapted Screenplay: The WGA and the USC Scripter are the best precursors to watch for in this category, but this year, it really seems like a number of scenarios could unfold. The frontrunners seem to remain “The Departed” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” with “Little Children” looking in pretty good condition. “Notes on a Scandal” was a surprising guild omission, but it may turn the right corner for Oscar. I’ll round it out with one of the most deserving candidates in the whole field, Jason Reitman and “Thank You for Smoking.”
Also Watch Out For: “Dreamgirls”
Left Field: “The Last King of Scotland”

Best Supporting Actress: It isn’t uncommon for two actresses to show up in this category for the same movie, so Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi have enough room to stretch for their work in “Babel.” But at the same time, it’s usually a comedy that lands two ladies, so perhaps “Little Miss Sunshine”’s Abigail Breslin and Toni Collette form the duo to watch. I’m banking on the former more so than the latter at this point, and though something seems vulnerable about Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal,” I’ll stick with her as well. But does any of this matter? Jennifer Hudson is on a direct trajectory to win this award for her performance in “Dreamgirls,” right?
Also Watch Out For: Toni Collette, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Left Field: Shareeka Epps, “Half Nelson”

Best Supporting Actor: This category remains the most up-in-the-air aspect of this year’s Oscar race. So many contenders have viable shots, and really only Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” seems secure. I expect, however, that sentiment could propel Alan Arkin to a surprise win for his performance in “Little Miss Sunshine,” while likely Best Picture nominee “The Departed” will also surely contribute to the category – most likely in the form of Jack Nicholson. Jackie Earle Haley has maintained a solid precursor run for his comeback work in “Little Children,” and I expect Djimon Hounsou can round things out with his SAG nominated performance in “Blood Diamond.”
Also Watch Out For: Michael Sheen, “The Queen”
Left Field: Ben Affleck, “Hollywoodland”

Best Actress: This category really needs no analysis. Penélope Cruz (“Volver), Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”) and Kate Winslet (“Little Children”) can pretty much be taken to the bank at this point.
Also Watch Out For: Annette Bening, “Running with Scissors”
Left Field: Naomi Watts, “The Painted Veil”

Best Actor: Sigh…I still fear for Leonardo DiCaprio that he may in fact split his votes and end up with nothing. But I’m holding out a sliver of hope that his campaign for “The Departed” didn’t rev up too late to pull the right amount of votes away from his “Blood Diamond” performance. Ryan Gosling seems a fair bet for an accomplished performance in “Half Nelson,” while the real locks in the category have been Peter O’Toole (“Venus”), Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness”) and Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”) for some time.
Also Watch Out For: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat”
Left Field: Daniel Craig, “Casino Royale”

Best Director: It isn’t often that the Best Picture lineup matches the Best Director lineup 5/5, but the safe bet this year is to predict as much. Something tells me that if a lone director slides into contention, it won’t be Paul Greengrass, but rather Clint Eastwood – and for “Flags of Our Fathers,” no less. That’s right; I’m predicting a stone cold shut-out for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” But in this category, sticking with the DGA nominees doesn’t feel like a terrible idea, so put me down for Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Babel”), Martin Scorsese (“The Departed”), Bill Condon (“Dreamgirls”), Stephen Frears (“The Queen”), and the dynamic duo, Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (“Little Miss Sunshine”).
Also Watch Out For: Clint Eastwood, “Flags of Our Fathers”
Left Field: Robert Altman, “A Prairie Home Companion”

Best Picture: This race, once considered sewn up in some quarters, has turned into the most wide open race in Oscar history. I don’t think that’s an overstatement. A solid case can be made for each of the five likely nominees, which I, like the rest of the chorus, expect to be “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen.”
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “Bobby”

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Yesterday you read a chat between "Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy and myself regading predictions for the main categories, nominations set to be revealed on Tuesday morning. Today, Gerard reveals his final expectations in the tech categories - his specialty, after all. Go give them a look. You'd do well to take his perspective into your own council while hammering out predictions in preparation for Tuesday's announcement.

This is officially the most wide open race in Oscar history. Four films have won the four big precursor Best Picture awards. Apparently I'm the only guy that expected this (in however nail-biting a fashion).

To me, "Little Miss Sunshine" is the golden film story for producers if there ever was one. A film gets made on the cheap, comes from a screenwriter who spent his days in the world of script coverage and personal assistance. It goes on to to a film festival, in this case, Sundance, gets purchased for a record amount of money. The film hits the marketplace, makes back the investment and then some. Oh yeah, and you'd have to be a total ass to find beef with anyone involved with the picture.

A huge, massive congratulations to the Fox Searchlight team and to the producers of the film. This is well-deserved. I just spoke with Michael Arndt today at a Q&A, I expect to interview Jon and Val within the week. But man, this stuff, it just couldn't happen to nicer people.

By the way, the fifth likely Best Picture nominee that hasn't received a major Best Picture win? "The Queen?" It'll be the most critically acclaimed of the likely five Best Picture nominees.

Wide...open...race.

The days are waning on Phase One of the 2006-2007 film awards season. Prognosticators are shuffling to prepare final predictions, movie-goers are rushing to see the films they might have missed that may end up nominated for Academy Awards, and internet personalities talk about the whole process via instant messenger.

As In Contention certainly isn't an operation I maintain on my own, I felt it appropriate to give "Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy the space for his own list of predictions in all categories. Last week we had a nice chat about the goings-on and what to expect from Tuesday's announcement, and what follows is a transcript of that chat. We tried this once before prior to the HFPA announcement, and I've been itching to do it again.

You'll find Gerard's final predictions scattered throughout, but I'm still working through the kinks on a lot of my own ponderings. So my final predictions will be held until Monday's Oscar column. But you can read between the lines of my thoughts here easily enough.

Also be sure to check back tomorrow for a special pre-nominations installment of "Tech Support," where Gerard will reveal his final predictions in the areas his has focused on throughout the season here at In Contention. Until then, enjoy the chat.

Kristopher Tapley: So with the PGA and the DGA matching up and the Best Picture line-up pretty much solidified in the eyes of most, I have to ask…are you predicting a lone director?

Gerard Kennedy: Paul Greengrass (for “United 93”), over Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris for “Little Miss Sunshine.” Though Bill Condon missing would not surprise me at all.

KT: I’m thinking a 5/5 line-up right now, but if I get rid of someone, I guess it’ll be Dayton and Faris – but that DGA nomination was both well-deserved and telling overall. I’m not sure it would be for Greengrass, though.

GK: Clint Eastwood and Robert Altman would be my other considerations. I’m very doubtful on Guillermo Del Toro and I’m not buying Alfonso Cuaron at all.

KT: I’m considering going with Eastwood, but honestly, given the reaction at the guilds, I don’t think it would be for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” If they want to recognize the double-bill achievement, I’m beginning to think they’d nominate him for “Flags of Our Fathers.”

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Picture
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
(alt: "United 93")

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel"
Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"
Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Stephen Frears, "The Queen"
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"
(alt: Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Actor? I’m thinking I’ll stick with the staples: Leonardo DiCaprio (for “The Departed”), Ryan Gosling, Peter O’Toole, Will Smith and Forest Whitaker.

GK: Same here.

KT: It feels wrong, though. I feel like Leo could split so easily. And honestly, I have this weird feeling Daniel Craig could get in!

GK: Sacha Baron Cohen is the biggest upset possibility, but that feels so wrong.

KT: Well, I can’t imagine any actor taking that performance seriously. And he’d have gotten a SAG nod if there was any traction. They love their comedies.

GK: The SAG is what really made me think he was out, but it’s still by far the most taled about/seen performanceof the others. Aaron Eckhart would be my shocker guess.

KT: If only.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
(alt.: Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat")

KT: Well how about the easiest category to predict…ever? Best Actress. Should we bother even analyzing it?

GK: Best Actress is full of five locks, and I’m pretty conservative with the use of that term.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"
(alt: Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby")

KT: Best Supporting Actor? What a cluster fuck, right? I guess Eddie Murphy is the standout, then Alan Arkin, who I think can actually contend for the win over Murphy if the campaign switches to focusing on him.

GK: Agreed.

KT: Djimon Hounsou seems pretty solid.

GK: I actually feel Jack Nicholson is more assured the nod.

KT: I don’t know, that SAG miss has me antsy on Jack. He’s actually in my #5 spot right now.

GK: It strikes me as a Maggie-Smith-in-“Gosford Park”-bizarro SAG miss.

KT: Possibly. Jackie Earle Haley rounds out my list.

GK: I’m rounding it out with Haley and Hounsou as well. Hounsou has just scored in all the right places, and Haley’s critical tally is so impressive. And it’s a great story.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed"
(alt.: Michael Sheen, "The Queen")

KT: Well Best Supporting Actress is pretty solid in four slots, wouldn’t you say? Jennifer Hudson, Cate Blanchett, Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi?

GK: I don’t know. I have the nagging suspicion one of the “Babel” ladies could miss, just because it would be odd for two unknowns in the same film to score. But everyone seems to love them. But yes, I’m predicting those four.

GK: My “limb” prediction is Toni Collette (in “Little Miss Sunshine”).

KT: Over Abigail Breslin?

GK: Yeah.

KT: I think I’ve got Collette at #6, but it’s a good call.

GK: She’s in the right film and seems to be a well-respected, well-liked actress, and one who has been nominated surprisingly before for a Best Picture nominee. That said, Breslin is probably the safer bet, though I doubt sag will match up 5/5 in two different categories.

KT: Well, they usually do well with the ladies regardless. Maybe both Collette and Breslin could get in, bumping one of the “Babel” ladies per your hunch? It isn’t uncommon for two nominees to come from a comedy in this category. But then, what about Breslin pulling a real shocker and getting in for lead, like Keisha Castle-Hughes in “Whale Rider.” Now THAT would get the blood flowing!

GK: Someone would have to receive a nasty snub.

KT: Well I long for some sort of excitement.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Toni Collette, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"
(alt: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine")

KT: How about Best Original Screenplay?

GK: “Babel,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen” are locked. “United 93” is the sort of critical fave that sneaks in. It’s not a script-heavy film per se, but the WGA and BAFTA nominations make me think Greengrass will score anyway.

KT: See, I disagree completely. I think the “United 93” screenplay is miraculous. It’s SO script-heavy, driven completely by dialogue – and REALISTIC dialogue. I consider it one of the most undervalued scripts of the year.

GK: Well I personally would nominate it, but despite the very tight structure, many would say “I don’t remember it for its words,” or some such nonsense. “Pan’s Labyrinth” would round out my list, though. But the fantasy gives me hesitation.

KT: I may go with “Volver” over “Pan’s.” It’s a very unique and masterful screenplay, if, at least in my view, and overrated film on the whole. “The Lives of Others” is a threat, too. And of course, “Stranger than Fiction” is lurking.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Best...shot...of...the...year.)

GK: “Fiction” perfectly fits the mold of the WGA-but-not-Oscar nominee. I reckon a foreign entry will knock it out.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Original Screenplay
"Babel"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"The Queen"
"United 93"
(alt: "Stranger than Fiction")

KT: Well, comedies are usually the first thing to go at the WGA. Which brings me to “Thank You for Smoking” and Best Adapted Screenplay. I feel like Jason Reitman’s script is dancing on the edge, and that should not be the case. “The Devil Wears Prada” should be in the midst of a death fall, yet there it is, largely the #2 candidate behind “The Departed.” How…did…this…happen??

GK: It’s bizarre. And this category is all over the place when you think about it.

KT: I kind of thought “The Illusionist” could get in until I watched it again this week. Such a bad script.

GK: Yeah, it’s a really bad script.

KT: I’m sold on “Little Children” now, but “Notes on a Scandal” needs some help. “Children of Men” won the Scripter award, but that’s not saying a lot considering it missed out on a WGA nomination. I think “Dreamgirls” is hobbling, but it might just make it in.

GK: I feel like “The Last King of Scotland” could surprise.

KT: Me too, and talk about the one script that deserves to win the whole thing.

GK: “Notes” would be my #6, and it makes more sense on paper than “Last King,” but I think Whitaker and Peter Morgan love can push the script in there.

KT: Ballsy, kid.

Gerard's Final Predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay
"The Departed"
"The Devil Wears Prada"
"The Last King of Scotland"
"Little Children"
"Thank You for Smoking"
(alt: "Notes on a Scandal")

KT: Well this has been another refreshing bout of brain-spillage. Let’s revisit this post-nominations and see how we view the winners shaking down.

GK: Looking forward to it.

You can, as always, check out Gerard's thorough technical category analysis at "Tech Support" each and every week. And again, check back Monday for the final pre-nominations Oscar column and my personal rundown of final predictions.

Those who tuned into the Golden Globes telecast on Monday saw the usual pomp and circumstance of a Hollywood Foreign Press Association awards show. Save for that pesky clip of dramatic Best Picture nominee "Little Children" that failed to make an appearance alongside the other nominated films throughout the evening.

Yes, Jennifer Garner was supposed to waltz on stage and present the clip, but the moment was pulled from the rundown due to a bloated running time, according to a line of reasoning being fed to New Line Cinema and Bona Fide Productions.

No one at New Line went on the record here, but suffice it to say those behind the awards push for "Little Children" were upset at the decision. They did, in fact, provide Dick Clark Productions with a clip of the film, one especially chosen by director Todd Field. The excuse given to them by the production company for it's unceremonious withdrawal was that a decision had to be made as a result of the show running over schedule. One of the clips had to go.

"I was mindful of the fact that the show was running long and that our clip hadn't shown yet," said Albert Berger, one of the producers of the film with partner Ron Yerxa. "And in this case, the film hasn't gone wide yet and we were hopeful of the platform of an awards show like this to reach a larger audience. We were disappointed."

Of course, the question these circumstances begs is what criteria is used to decide which clip gets pulled? After all, the clips are shown in alphabetical order. So if it is discovered that the telecast is running over, the final clip ought to be the one to go, right? If such a course of action is indeed necessary, that is. In this case, that would have been the clip of "The Queen," which ended up taking two wins Monday night. "Little Children" took home none.

"Next year it could be my film," was the point made by an insider not connected with the film. "I just think everyone should be on a level playing film."

No one from Dick Clark Productions returned phone calls, but New Line is in a dialogue with the production company, Mr. Berger said. Perhaps something in the way of an apology is in the cards, perhaps not. But a side note of editorial, if I may:

I've worked in live television. I know these decisions are made on the fly in a tight control room by script supervisers and directors looking at a giant red clock ticking down and people scrambling to update the rundowns. I know. But there's a lot more to take into consideration in this scenario than the fact that a show is going to run over schedule, especially when the show went over schedule anyway. (Just ask the poor souls that failed to TiVo the evening news following the telecast and thereby missed the Governor hobbling out to say his catch phrase one...more...time.)

A lot of hard working people pour themselves into this job. They get to work early, they leave late and you don't know any of their names. Getting a film nominated for anything, let alone one of the most televised film awards shows in existence, is an exhausting marathon that deserves the breath of relief that is seeing that clip displayed alongside all the other nominees. To take that away from them and the filmmakers, whatever the eventual fate of their film at the awards show in question, is a bit cold-hearted - even by entertainment industry standards.

Not unexpectedly, the films topping the list of guild mentions in the pre-nominations days of this week are frontrunners for a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. Leading the way is "Babel," landing 8 mentions, missing only with the cinematographers (not the case with BAFTA) and the Visual Effects Society. Following close behind with seven guild nominations each is "Dreamgirls" and "The Queen," while "The Departed" and "Little Miss Sunshine" round up the line-up with six and five mentions respectively.

And that's the role the guilds play for prognosticators. Clearing the way and speaking up for the films that, in all likelihood, will show up at the Oscars. These are the groups that actually overlap with the AMPAS membership. They aren't critics with agendas and groupthink (though groupthink certainly comes into play). They are the people who will be voting for the big taco, and save for the Motion Picture Sound Editors, they have all spoken. (Strange that the MPSE won't be announcing until AFTER the Oscar nominations).

Gerard gave a nice rundown of what the guilds showed us the last two weeks in today's "Tech Support" column, but I'd also like to toss up a full guild list for your perusal. Check it out after the jump.

"Babel" - 8
PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG (3), ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG

"Dreamgirls" - 7
PGA, DGA, SAG (3), ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG

"The Queen" - 7
PGA, DGA, SAG (1), WGA, ACE, ADG, CDG

"The Departed" - 6
PGA, DGA, SAG (2), WGA, ACE, ADG

"Little Miss Sunshine" - 5
PGA, DGA, SAG (3), WGA, CDG

"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" - 5
ACE, ADG, CAS, CDG, VES (6)

"Casino Royale" - 4
ACE, ADG, CDG, VES (1)

"The Devil Wears Prada" - 4
WGA, SAG (1), ACE, CDG

"Blood Diamond" - 3
CAS, SAG (2), VES (1)

"Children of Men" - 3
ADG, ASC, VES (2)

"Flags of Our Fathers" - 3
ADG, CAS, VES (1)

"The Good Shepherd" - 3
ADG, ASC, VES (1)

"V for Vendetta" - 3
ADG, CDG, VES (1)

"Curse of the Golden Flower" - 2
ADG, CDG

"The Da Vinci Code" - 2
ADG, VES (2)

"The Fountain" - 2
CDG, VES (1)

"The Illusionist" - 2
ASC, CDG

"Little Children" - 2
SAG (2), WGA

"Pan's Labyrinth" - 2
ADG, CDG

"Superman Returns" - 2
ADG, VES (1)

"Thank You for Smoking" - 2
WGA, ACE

"United 93" - 2
WGA, ACE

"X-Men: The Last Stand" - 2
CDG, VES (1)

One Hit Wonders:
"Apocalypto" (ASC)
"The Black Dahlia" (ASC)
"Bobby" (SAG - 1)
"Borat" (WGA)
"Cars" (VES - 1)
"Charlotte's Web" (VES - 3)
"Eragon" (CDG)
"Happy Feet" (VES - 1)
"Marie Antoinette" (CDG)
"Mission: Impossible 3" (VES - 1)
"Monster House" (VES - 1)
"Poseidon" (VES - 1)
"The Prestige" (ADG)
"Stranger than Fiction" (WGA)

ACE = American Cinema Editors
ADG = Art Directors Guild
ASC = American Society of Cinematographers
CAS = Cinema Audio Society
CDG = Costume Desingers Guild
DGA = Directors Guild of America
PGA = Producers Guild of America
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
WGA = Writers Guild of America
VES = Visual Effects Society

Five days before the announcement of the nominees for the 79th Annual Academy Awards, the guilds have given us our clearest indications of what we can expect.

Since my last columns, the British Academy of Film and Television were joined by the chorus of the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), the Art Directors Guild (ADG), the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), the American Cinema Editors (ACE) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) in declaring lists of nominations. These guilds are, more than any other precursor event, the most important “clue” we prognosticators get.

The nominees:

Contemporary:
"Babel," Brigitte Broch
"Casino Royale," Peter Lamont
"The Da Vinci Code," Allan Cameron
"The Departed," Kristi Zea
"The Queen," Alan Macdonald

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Huo Tingxiao
"Dreamgirls," John Myhre
"Flags of Our Fathers," Henry Bumstead
"The Good Shepehrd," Jeannine Oppewall
"The Prestige," Nathan Crowley

Fantasy:
"Children of Men," Jim Clay, Geoffrey Kirkland
"Pan's Labyrinth," Eugenio Caballero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Rick Heinrichs
"Superman Returns," Guy Hendrix Dyas
"V for Vendetta," Owen Patterson

I was 8/15 in my predictions, and would've been 9/15 if not for the placement of "Pirates."

It's nice that the late Henry Bumstead received this recognition, and really, it might translate to an Oscar nomination for his swangsong efforts "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" (seriously - no guild love...no one has SEEN the damn thing).

The biggest omission is "Marie Antoinette," but I've suspected for a long time that it wasn't on steady ground. After all, you're gonna have pretty sets if you shoot in Versailles. How much actual DESIGN was involved?

The guild stampede continues for "Babel," with 8 mentions (to "Dreamgirls"'s 7), while "The Queen" also stays in the thick of the precursor hunt. I'm personally happy for Nathan Crowley and his wonderful work on "The Prestige," but to be honest, I have NO idea how this will shake down for Oscar.

CORRECTION: Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell were nominated for "Con Air" in 1997 without receiving a CAS nomiantion.

The nominees:

"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

I was 4/5 on my predictions. Of course, we all know "Dreamgirls" and "Pirates" were expected to show up here. I will say the inclusion of "Blood Diamond" is no shock, given the popularity of Anna Behlmer amongst her peers. I've been pointing to this film for some time as a tech-likely Oscar film, and though Eduardo Serra missed with the ASC, it looks like the "Bling BANG" of Edward Zwick's largely critically reviled effort spoke to the audio engineers enough.

"Flags of Our Fathers" finally gets some action - where expected, to be honest. I've heard from guild insiders (well - A guild insider) that the sound mixers had a lot of respect for the work on that film, and that despite great dual work, even the engineers of both "Flags" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" put their own eggs in the former basket. But it's nice that Clint Eastwood's efforts are starting to get just a little more traction (following Monday's Golden Globe win for "Letters").

Finally, yet another guild mention for "Babel" is great news for the film indeed, and well-deserved. But one might want to consider that, in the Society's 13 year history, their nominations have only lined-up 100% with the AMPAS twice. Four of the films that have been left off in the cross over were eventual Best Picture nominees, including last year's "Babel" comparison (though I still don't personally GET the comparison beyond sprawling ensemble), "Crash."

This year, if one of the Society's choices falls off, I expect it could be "Babel." Six times the replacement has been a Best Picture nominee, so there's hope for "The Departed" yet. Seven times the replacement has been an actioner with lots of noise, also boading well for "The Departed," but perhaps more so for "Apocalypto," mixed by veteran Oscar almost-champs Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell.

That is all, of course, assuming the Society didn't hit the nail on the head once again, which they may have. And seriously, given the guild approval across the board, "Babel" has slid into an interesting frontrunner position. It currently leads the field in precursor mentions that matter.

No alterations in the Oscar predictions until the final pre-nominations column on Monday, but these mentions and the rest of the week in guilds will certainly be taken into account.

(More commentary, plus the CAS press release, after the jump.)

"Tech Support" columnist Gerard Kennedy had the following to say about the announcement and how things might shake down with the Academy as a result:

It's usually 4/5, though 3/5 and 5/5 ocassionally happen. "Dreamgirls" is locked and "Flags" and "Pirates" are both looking very likely. Given the "Blood Diamond" love all around, it's probably in (I feel the mixing is the closest thing to being something exemplary about it) though Behlmer is more a guild than AMPAS fave ("X-Files," "Catch Me If You Can," "Shrek"). It's no lock.

So I think "Babel" is the more vulnerable one because it's not your stereotypically loud film and because the whole crew is unseasoned Oscar-wise. Yet it's doing so well.

But the alternates are also in trouble. It's worth noting that Millan ("World Trade Center") and O'Connell/Russell have only once been nominated for the Oscar after being snubbed here ("Con Air"). Other contenders - "Casino Royale," animated films, etc. - have obvious strikes against them, too.

I guess what I'm saying is that I ultimately expect a 4/5 lineup...though the 5/5 lineup is the safest bet because of the challenge in predicting if "Blood Diamond" or "Babel" will be snubbed and who would get in. Fleischman was admittedly at this point for "Gangs of New York" and got in over Behlmer/Nelson...so maybe "The Departed" (can get in), but it doesn't feel right to me.

And now, the full release and list of nominees from the Cinema Audio Society:

The Winners of the CAS Awards will be announced at the 43rd CAS Awards on February 17, 2007 at the Biltmore Bowl of the Millennium-Biltmore Hotel. Los Angeles. Additionally, Ed Greene, CAS will receive the CAS Career Achievement Award and Gilbert Cates will receive the CAS Filmmaker Award.

The Cinema Audio Society, a philanthropic, non-profit organization, was formed in 1964 for the purpose of sharing information with Sound Professionals in the Motion Picture and Television Industry.

CAS website: http://www.cinemaaudiosociety.org/

The Art Directors Guild and Cinema Audio Society are each dishing out nods on Thursday, and though I want to rattle off some predictions, I don't feel like going through the pomp and circumstance of last week to do so. SO, here's what I'm thinking, free of lengthy explanation:

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY (CAS) Predictions
"Apocalypto"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt: "Casino Royale")

ART DIRECTORS GUILD (ADG) Predictions

Contemporary:
"Babel"
"Casino Royale"
"Poseidon"
"Running with Scissors"
"World Trade Center"
(alt.: "Blood Diamond")

Period:
"The Black Dahlia"
"Curse of the Golden Flower"
"Dreamgirls"
"Marie Antoinette"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt.: "Flags of Our Fathers" or "Letters from Iwo Jima")

Fantasy:
"Children of Men"
"Eragon"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Superman Returns"
"V for Vendetta"
(alt.: "The Fountain")

Will they give Henry Bumstead a mention for his swansong efforts? I'm not too sure, but we'll see. And again, I'm refraining from classification o