Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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No More Bets: In Contention's Final Oscar Predictions

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LAST MINUTE CHANGE!! - Nerves always get the better of me, and I invariably change a prediction at the last minute. This year, it's in the Best Original Screenplay category, where I've decided to go with Guillermo del Toro's "Pan's Labyrinth" over Paul Greengrass's "United 93," the battle of the critical darlings.


Tomorrow’s the big day. Today’s the last crunch. And with the AMPAS announcement less than 24 hours away, I’m not sure we’ve had such a clear portrait of the Best Picture line-up in quite some time.


2004 seemed pretty cut and dry, but there were still those expecting “Hotel Rwanda” to show up. 2003 also seems like it was an obvious fiver in hindsight, if not for the feeling that Miramax just had to continue that 10 year streak with a “Cold Mountain” mention. Every year, really, it seems that there is at least one film that could surprise and push its way into the fray. This season, however, you’d really have to be reckless to stray outside of the agreed upon “five.”


But hey, that doesn’t mean there aren’t 23 other categories up for grabs!


Gerard placed his chips over the weekend, and I’ve finally run a comb through my predictions to come up with what follows. In many cases, I’ve gone the safe route. I get the feeling trusting the guilds might be the best course of action this year, more so than any other year. At the same time, I have some gut instincts I’m going with here and there, mostly in the technical categories, which may or may not pan out. I long for something to turn my head, but to be quite honest, I expect to be nodding it with the fulfillment of expectation for much of tomorrow morning.


But enough talking – time to put my money where my mouth is. Below you’ll find brief analysis of each category. Full predictions are listed (and can also be found in the sidebar), while each section is accompanied by an alternate and a stab at a potential shocker. I’m labeling the latter my “Left Field” predictions. You can also find the Oscar charts, updated in full, linked at the bottom of the page.

Enjoy the predictions, and here’s to an exciting morning tomorrow.

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Best Visual Effects: The bake-off list narrowed this category down for us somewhat, leaving the two locks present and accounted for: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns.” Beyond that, you can really expect pretty much any of the contenders to show up. Despite a weak box office showing and a critical thrashing, I’m going to go with “Poseidon” in the final position.
Also Watch Out For: “X-Men: The Last Stand”
Left Field: “Casino Royale”


Best Sound Editing: The Motion Picture Sound Editors sadly will be revealing their nominees after the Academy’s announcement, so we really have no precursor to look to in this category. I’m still pretty solid on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Cars,” and I figure “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Superman Returns” can slide into position easily enough. Given that the fifth slot seems so up in the air (and this is the first year the category has widened to five nominees), I’m thinking something like “Poseidon” can actually show up. They love their water movies.
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Happy Feet”


Best Sound Mixing: The Cinema Audio Society really cleared things up in this category last week, and their list of nominees seems safe enough to me. The Society doesn’t often line up 100% with the Academy, but I honestly don’t know what film(s) to count out and what the replacement(s) would be. So I’ll side with the CAS and stick with “Babel,” “Blood Diamond,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Departed”
Left Field: “Children of Men”


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Best Music – Original Song: Everything from “Charlotte’s Web” to “Home of the Brave” could show up in this category. Additionally, the amount of nominees could round out to a shabby three like last year. “Dreamgirls” could even command 60% of the field, but I’ll stick with one “Dreamgirls” tune joining “Bobby,” “Cars,” “Happy Feet” and “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Also Watch Out For: “Borat”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”


Best Music – Original Score: Talk about a category that is creating mass confusion. With no precursor of note to guide prognostication, we’re pretty much left with history and gut instinct as to which composers will get in year after year – and typically, this in an insular bunch. I don’t expect Alexandre Desplat and Philip Glass can achieve double nominations in the fashion of vets like John Williams and James Horner in the past, but their work on “The Painted Veil” and “The Illusionist,” respectively, seem to be neck and neck for the ultimate win. In a bind, they’ve got “The Queen” and “Notes on a Scandal” to fall back on. Beyond that duo, last year’s victor, Gustavo Santaolalla, has had a decent run in the admittedly beside-the-point precursor circuit for “Babel.” It’s not a traditional score, but neither was Alberto Iglesias’s work on “The Constant Gardener” last year. To round it out, I am going to go with the feeling that, in a year full of great scores like “Brick,” “The Fountain” and “The Lives of Others,” the branch will stick to their own and nominate Thomas Newman twice, for “The Good German” and “Little Children.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Fountain”
Left Field: “Pan’s Labyrinth”


Best Makeup: Another category where a bake-off list narrows it down, I really feel like we may be in for a surprise. This is a branch that tends to appreciate realistic artistry more often than creative ingenuity, and even with exceptions to that flimsy rule, I wonder if something like “Pan’s Labyrinth” will fall flatter than expected given that its hopes hinge on the work put into just two characters. Similar objections might be made against “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” but I somehow expect Ve Neill and company will still find some space to breath. Former nominee Keith Vanderlaan also feels like a solid bet for the tribal period work on “Apocalypto.” For the last spot, I’ve suspected for a while (and a reader posted similar thoughts in the comments section yesterday) that Rick Baker could slide in for one of his two efforts, and in a category that never fails to surprise, I somehow think a nomination for the aging work in “Click” isn’t so far-fetched.
Also Watch Out For: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Left Field: “The Santa Claus 3: The Escape Clause”


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Best Film Editing: The American Cinema Editors tossed an interesting log onto the fire in the form of Stuart Baird and “Casino Royale” grabbing a mention, but I expect the surprises will stop there and we’ll see a line-up largely reflective of the Best Picture category. I’m banking on “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Queen” and “United 93.”
Also Watch Out For: “Casino Royale”
Left Field: “Little Miss Sunshine”


Best Costume Design: The Costume Designers Guild seems to disagree with the Academy more often than not, but I get the feeling that fifteen nominees make the field wide enough to land at least the bulk of the eventual nominees. I’m not buying the expectations for “The Devil Wears Prada,” considering this is a branch that avoids contemporary product like the plague, no matter how integral to the film’s plot. So I’m sticking with “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “The Illusionist,” “Marie Antoinette” and, in a slight surprise, Oscar favorite Jenny Beaven showing up for “The Black Dahlia.”
Also Watch Out For: “The Devil Wears Prada”
Left Field: “Infamous”


Best Cinematography: The American Society of Cinematographers really threw a wrench into the works when they announced their nominees a few weeks back. In fact, they kept the Best Picture mix clouded for a short time, leaving all frontrunners off their short list. Usually the group misses one, and though I feel like Vilmos Zsigmond could surprisingly translate his guild nod for “The Black Dahlia” to an Oscar nomination, I’m joining the crow and leaving him off here. “Apocalypto” could also be left off the list, considering the guild digs on digital more so than the Academy, but I’ll stick with Dean Semler. I expect him to join Emmanuel Lubezki (“Children of Men”), Robert Richardson (“The Good Shepherd”) and Dick Pope (“The Illusionist”) in the eventual line-up. That leaves Tobias A. Schliessler and his vibrant work on “Dreamgirls” standing out as the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch.
Also Watch Out For: “Babel”
Left Field: “Flags of Our Fathers”


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Best Art Direction: With the splitting off of the fantasy and period categories at the Art Directors Guild this year, we’re left with fifteen nominees to peruse for ultimate Oscar consideration. I think period nominees “Curse of the Golden Flower,” “Dreamgirls,” “Flags of Our Fathers” and “The Prestige” will join fantasy nominee “Pan’s Labyrinth” a the big dance, with “Children of Men” being a surprise omission.
Also Watch Out For: “Children of Men”
Left Field: “Superman Returns”


Best Animated Feature Film: Too bad for two unlucky films that this category was reduced down to a three-contender arena few weeks ago with the departure of one of the qualifying films, but I don’t think it made much of a difference for frontrunners “Cars” and “Happy Feet.” For the last slot, I’m sticking with what the Annies told us and what the box office reflected, giving the edge to Dreamworks and “Over the Hedge.”
Also Watch Out For: “Monster House”
Left Field: “Ice Age: The Meltdown”


Best Original Screenplay: I was personally quite appreciative of the Writers Guild’s choices for nominees in this category, and expect only “Stranger than Fiction” to fall by the wayside. This will be a brutal fight between “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” so fellow nominees “Babel,” “Volver” and (hanging it out there for this one) “Pan’s Labyrinth” will have to enjoy the spectacle…if, in fact, my predictions pan out.
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “The Lives of Others”


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Best Adapted Screenplay: The WGA and the USC Scripter are the best precursors to watch for in this category, but this year, it really seems like a number of scenarios could unfold. The frontrunners seem to remain “The Departed” and “The Devil Wears Prada,” with “Little Children” looking in pretty good condition. “Notes on a Scandal” was a surprising guild omission, but it may turn the right corner for Oscar. I’ll round it out with one of the most deserving candidates in the whole field, Jason Reitman and “Thank You for Smoking.”
Also Watch Out For: “Dreamgirls”
Left Field: “The Last King of Scotland”


Best Supporting Actress: It isn’t uncommon for two actresses to show up in this category for the same movie, so Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi have enough room to stretch for their work in “Babel.” But at the same time, it’s usually a comedy that lands two ladies, so perhaps “Little Miss Sunshine”’s Abigail Breslin and Toni Collette form the duo to watch. I’m banking on the former more so than the latter at this point, and though something seems vulnerable about Cate Blanchett in “Notes on a Scandal,” I’ll stick with her as well. But does any of this matter? Jennifer Hudson is on a direct trajectory to win this award for her performance in “Dreamgirls,” right?
Also Watch Out For: Toni Collette, “Little Miss Sunshine”
Left Field: Shareeka Epps, “Half Nelson”


Best Supporting Actor: This category remains the most up-in-the-air aspect of this year’s Oscar race. So many contenders have viable shots, and really only Eddie Murphy in “Dreamgirls” seems secure. I expect, however, that sentiment could propel Alan Arkin to a surprise win for his performance in “Little Miss Sunshine,” while likely Best Picture nominee “The Departed” will also surely contribute to the category – most likely in the form of Jack Nicholson. Jackie Earle Haley has maintained a solid precursor run for his comeback work in “Little Children,” and I expect Djimon Hounsou can round things out with his SAG nominated performance in “Blood Diamond.”
Also Watch Out For: Michael Sheen, “The Queen”
Left Field: Ben Affleck, “Hollywoodland”


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Best Actress: This category really needs no analysis. Penélope Cruz (“Volver), Judi Dench (“Notes on a Scandal”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Meryl Streep (“The Devil Wears Prada”) and Kate Winslet (“Little Children”) can pretty much be taken to the bank at this point.
Also Watch Out For: Annette Bening, “Running with Scissors”
Left Field: Naomi Watts, “The Painted Veil”


Best Actor: Sigh…I still fear for Leonardo DiCaprio that he may in fact split his votes and end up with nothing. But I’m holding out a sliver of hope that his campaign for “The Departed” didn’t rev up too late to pull the right amount of votes away from his “Blood Diamond” performance. Ryan Gosling seems a fair bet for an accomplished performance in “Half Nelson,” while the real locks in the category have been Peter O’Toole (“Venus”), Will Smith (“The Pursuit of Happyness”) and Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”) for some time.
Also Watch Out For: Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat”
Left Field: Daniel Craig, “Casino Royale”


Best Director: It isn’t often that the Best Picture lineup matches the Best Director lineup 5/5, but the safe bet this year is to predict as much. Something tells me that if a lone director slides into contention, it won’t be Paul Greengrass, but rather Clint Eastwood – and for “Flags of Our Fathers,” no less. That’s right; I’m predicting a stone cold shut-out for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” But in this category, sticking with the DGA nominees doesn’t feel like a terrible idea, so put me down for Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Babel”), Martin Scorsese (“The Departed”), Bill Condon (“Dreamgirls”), Stephen Frears (“The Queen”), and the dynamic duo, Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (“Little Miss Sunshine”).
Also Watch Out For: Clint Eastwood, “Flags of Our Fathers”
Left Field: Robert Altman, “A Prairie Home Companion”


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Best Picture: This race, once considered sewn up in some quarters, has turned into the most wide open race in Oscar history. I don’t think that’s an overstatement. A solid case can be made for each of the five likely nominees, which I, like the rest of the chorus, expect to be “Babel,” “The Departed,” “Dreamgirls,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen.”
Also Watch Out For: “United 93”
Left Field: “Bobby”


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Comments

With Desplat and Glass touting the high profile work, it's definitely ballsy to predict dual nominations for Newman.

Click though? I know these are the people who nominated The Time Machine, but there are three legitimate contenders shortlisted so Oscar completists won't have to sit through Click.

As for Poseidon, I still think they're way too driven by box office performance to nominate it.

A shutout for Letters isn't too unlikely, but I hope to God it doesn't happen.

I'm impressed by your multiple risky picks.

It's not impossible (although I admit not extremely likely either) that Chris Cornell will get a nod for Best Original Song for Casion Royale, is it? He qualifies... the song is featured in the movie clearly.

I know the new system has the songs rated out of a 10 point system and only the highest get nominations, but there might be some unrealized love for the movie and the song.

Also, I think Glass will be the one to get two nominations if anyone does.

No more Wahlberg Kris? If Vera Varmiga gets in, then not only will Wahlberg get in, but I think it means The Departed will win everything.

The "surprise supporting nominations" theory doesn't always hold true. Alan Alda got a surprise nomination in 2004 for The Aviator (some were expecting Freddie Highmore, if I remember correctly) and some mistakenly interpreted his inclusion as strength for The Aviator, which went on to win none of the major categories.

I don't think Farmiga gets in either way, though. A more likely application of the theory would come if, say, Toni Collette was nominated for LMS, or if Babel got three supporting noms for Pitt, Barazza and Kikuchi, or if BOTH Nicholson and Wahlberg get nods along with Leo.

I'd be so thrilled if Queen gets in for Editing, but I think the editors are going to go for Little Miss Sunshine instead. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Devil Wears Prada sneak a nom here.

I could see Renee April scoring a costume nomination for Fountain. I'd be surprised if none of the films from the guild's fantasy noms get in. And Fountain required three distinct time periods be designed one entirely invented.

I think Michael Ballhaus will pick up a nomination from the academy, he was hurt by getting a career achievement from the ASC, but I fully expect to see him show up here.

In terms of audiences, Over the Hedge was the definite success, but animators have a soft spot for Aardman, and Flushed Away was a better movie than Wallace and Gromit, I'd give it an edge over Over the Hedge. Personally my preference is for Monster House, but I don't see it getting in unless something crazy happens and Cars or Happy Feet misses.

great predictions, looking forward to tomorrow morning.

Nice pics.

Reposting this on the more recent thread:

Interesting thought occurred to me before: of the current five Best Picture front runners, wouldn't Dreamgirls be seen as the most vulnerable? I know it will have a lot of support from the tech branches, but isn't it the most comparable to the Walk the Line situation last year. I've heard of almost no one listing it as their favorite picture of the year, and the preferential ballot could make that an important factor. I still fimrly believe it will be nominated, but wouldn't that be the best possible surprise come Tuesday?

Can't blame ya on the Labyrinth/United swap. Of its strengths, I can't honestly say that U93's screenplay is among them.

More proof that it's the most underrated script of the year. Sigh...

Holding out for a Letters Original Screenplay nod

I still hold out hope for Paul Greengrass--at least in Screenplay. I haven't even seen the film, but he deserves at least one ode to his achievement. I think it'll be a consolation nomination.

Strangely, we're on par for ALMOST everything. I also like that you, like I, believe Arkin could be a surprise winner =). He reminds me of a Jack Palance/Marisa Tomei type of nominee...sometimes those comic comebacks by established veterans or just a wonderfully entertaining performance steal the show. He might win the SAG too, but I think DiCaprio picks it up there.

I wonder about Emily Blunt though. Many adored her comic portrayal and she could easily ride Streep's heels. Think it'll happen?

I do think you're a little crazy in one respect. I don't think Over the Hedge will get in over more esteemed contender Monster House (not to mention, it's a Spielberg production).

http://imdb.com/board/bd0000005/nest/64735656

If you have an IMDb account anyone, take a look and comment please =).

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon