This year has already seen a list of heavy dramatic hitters hoping (and likely) to make a play for the big race. The hard-boiled violence of “The Departed” looks ruthlessly charming enough to slide in at the end of the day, while the rugged and sometimes unflinching “Flags of Our Fathers” seems to have survived the critical assessment by old-timers lacking the heart to dig into Clint Eastwood too much.

On its way to release, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Babel” is set to potentially be the most dramatic film of the lot, very serious in its assessment of a world out of touch with itself. And Steven Soderbergh’s upcoming “The Good German” (looking a bit too stylized, in my view, to become Warner Bros.’ top priority over “The Departed”) tackles post-World War II Germany in a noir-ish vein. No laughs to be found.

Nearly every year, at least one film nominated for the Best Picture, Comedy/Musical award at the Golden Globes makes it into Oscar’s lineup. With that in mind, Bill Condon’s “Dreamgirls” is still considered the frontrunner, sight unseen. It is a musical, yes. But unlike past nominees “Moulin Rouge!” and “Chicago,” this film will represent a much more dramatic arc that certainly couldn’t be chalked up as light and fluffy. Interestingly, this will immediately make it unique in the current re-birth of the genre – a facet of the film most
seem to be missing.

So what are we left with as far as hopefuls in the light-hearted and/or funnybone arena are concerned? I personally think we’ve got two certain possibilities, each strikingly different from the other.

First, the already financially successful “Little Miss Sunshine” is one of the great stories of the year. Selling for a record amount at Sundance and going on to capture the hearts of critics and audiences alike, Fox Searchlight smells opportunity in the water. They have already claimed status as the first out of the gate with screeners, sending out some 6,000 to members of the Academy a few weeks ago.

The film is clearly looking at nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press, the Independent Spirit Awards, SAG ensemble and, if the money its making impresses the producers enough, the PGA. Beyond that, nods from the Academy for original screenplay, supporting actress (Abigail Breslin) and supporting actor (Alan Arkin) look to be in the cards as well. Arkin spent last week in Los Angeles, taking time out to promote the film on the awards circuit. The gears are in motion.

The other contender, much different in its apparent tone than “Little Miss Sunshine,” is “The Pursuit of Happyness.” Given the nature of the narrative (single father struggles to make ends meet, lands in the stock broking business, happy ever after) it would be folly to chalk the film up as a “comedy.” “Pursuit” certainly won’t be found in that category at the Golden Globes, but it still seems interestingly representative of films like “Finding Neverland” and “The Green Mile” that turned the corner on appealing to that spot inside everyone that avoids cynicism at all costs (a practice all too lost on the critical community).

Those involved with the film have already taken umbrage with the term “schmaltzy,” used elsewhere in characterization of “Pursuit,” so allow me to steer clear of such a label. “Sentimental” might be more applicable, if only it could dump the negative connotation that immediately arises when one breathes the word. Regardless, there was a curious whiff of something in the air on this film as far back as the summer. Sony had a certain confidence in it that allowed them to concentrate PR efforts on an inevitable travesty (“All the King’s Men”) and a commercial endeavor that may or may not translate to awards success (“Stranger Than Fiction”).

In the meantime, the crafts of “Marie Antoinette” and the performances of “Running with Scissors” may end up speaking for themselves, leaving “The Pursuit of Happyness” as the definitive Best Picture push from the studio. I’m just thinking out loud here, but it’s worth taking into account that Will Smith works like a racehorse for his films, even when he doesn’t have to. And that this particular film is inspired by a true story, well that’s just gravy, right? Throw in Smith working with his son on the picture (a PR dream) and a dash of the star’s likely Best Actor nomination (and potential win, mind you), and all the ingredients are there. It’s just that only recently have people elsewhere been tossing these ideas around in print.

“Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Pursuit of Happyness” have been taken seriously as Best Picture threats around these parts for a long, long time now. They’ve always been on the fringes of the predicted five, however, as they are now. Another shoe has to drop for these films to begin poking their way into the lineup, and as evidenced by the charts this week, I already think a few titles are slipping and sliding to make way for other placement. So I’ll close with a few notes on those.

The aforementioned “The Good German” seems like it might be a bit too much, to be quite honest. The chatter is heating up with the release of the trailer, but Warner Bros. isn’t going to land two spots in the lineup.

“Blood Diamond” is also on the way, mind you, but it’s likely a performance film. “The Departed,” meanwhile, is already shining bright and high and – ironically enough – was never positioned as an “awards film” by the studio. I personally think that might be the greatest lie ever told. The strategy on this thing has been either sheer genius or a happy accident.

“Flags of Our Fathers” is on its merry way, despite artistic missteps. Again, Clint has a golden “Get out of Jail Free” card. But screw it, he’s earned it. He also had an interesting exchange with the Peters on “Sunday Morning Shootout” yesterday (with Paul Haggis in tow).

“Babel,” though I love it so, might be the weak link in the lineup after all. I can see the international appeal landing it safely in the HFPA lineup, but the Academy is a different sell. We’ll see how industry screenings go over the next few weeks.

And “The Queen” is just cruising.

A somewhat scattered column this time around, I know. Clearing up the charts and such and brain-vomiting as
tends to happen every once in a while. Next week we’ll dig back into the categories again with a look at the congested Best Actress lineup.

Oscar Predictions Archive
"The Contenders"

Previous Oscar Columns:
10/16/06 - "Starting to Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"