Given that most of the tech races aren’t extensively covered by the precursor season, the best tea leaves we have for judgment are the guilds. It’s all for the best, really, as the guild memberships contain many of the Academy members who eventually nominate for Oscar.

The Visual Effects Society, Motion Picture Sound Editors Association and Makeup and Hairstylists Guild certainly can provide insight in their fields. However, these organizations each have many categories that do not precisely overlap with the corresponding Oscar races.

So in the interest of time and focus, I’ll concentrate on the five guilds which essentially award on the same criteria the Academy does. We’ll start with the costumers, editors and sound mixers today.

Costume Designers Guild (CDG) (nominees announced January 11, 2007)

Last year, the Costume Designers Guild split the period/fantasy category leaving three arenas for recognition along with the contemporary field. The guild seems to take the latter to mean very recently indeed, even categorizing “Rent” in the period category last year. But that does not mean there is not grey area out there. Do, for example, “The Prestige” and “The Illusionist” fit into the fantasy or period classification?

The guild also seems to be one not overly preoccupied with predicting the Oscar nods. Despite having multiple categories, there almost always seem to be at least two, often more, of the eventual AMPAS nominees missing from the list.

I think it’s extremely safe to say we’ll be seeing Milena Canonero (“Marie Antoinette”) and Sharen Davis (“Dreamgirls”) in the mix in the period category this year. But beyond that it becomes more difficult.

I somehow suspect we’ll be seeing Julie Weiss among the nominees for “Bobby” as she designed threads for a plethora of big stars and seems to be the sort of designer who’d be well-loved in the industry.

“The Painted Veil” (Ruth Myers) and “Miss Potter” (Anthony Powell) might seem to be easy gets. However, despite Myers and Powell being highly respected designers, neither has experienced a lot of love from the guild.

Chung Man Yee, meanwhile, was assigned a costume showcase on “Curse of the Golden Flower.” But that’s a very foreign effort for an American guild to embrace. And could one of the critically maligned films – “The Black Dahlia,” “The Good German” or “The Good Shepherd” – get a nomination for Jenny Beavan, Louise Frogley or Ann Roth, respectively? It’s very possible.

On the fantasy side of things, we’re probably looking at the aforementioned “The Prestige” (threads courtesy of Joan Bergin) and “The Illusionist” (with Ngila Dickson doing the duty) scoring here – IF they are classified as fantasy. Penny Rose’s work on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” would appear a lock.

My suspicion is that the category will be rounded up with one of Renée April for “The Fountain” or Kym Barrett and Carlo Pogliotti for “Eragon” (recall there were only four nominees last year), but those films are not terribly respected so we could be in for a surprise. “Pan’s Labyrinth?” “V for Vendetta?” “Children of Men?”

The contemporary race tends to have little affect on the Oscar race, but it is fun to predict nonetheless. I have little doubt Patricia Field will take the award for “The Devil Wears Prada,” but who will join her as fellow nominees?

I’d bet on Dorinda Wood for “For Your Consideration” and, considering the range in the threads, Michael Wilkinson makes sense for “Babel” as well. Consolata Boyle would also appear in great shape for “The Queen” assuming the film is deemed contemporary. Sandy Powell might appear a shoo-in for “The Departed,” but I’d urge caution there. The guild seems to have a strange aversion to her. Despite a phenomenal filmography, including seven Oscar nominations and two wins, she’s only ever been cited by the guild ONCE (an obvious nod for “The Aviator”).

American Cinema Editors (ACE) (nominees announced January 12, 2007)

If the Costume Designers Guild doesn’t seem to be much of an Oscar oracle, the American Cinema Editors are the opposite. At least four, often five, of the Oscar nominees for editing are part of this slate of ten nominees (distinguished in the fields of drama and comedy/musical). In fact, at least four – often five – of the ultimate Best Picture nominees tend to show up here as well.

A mortal lock for a nomination on the drama side of things would be Thelma Schoonmaker for “The Departed.” A legendary talent with an editing showcase that’s a Best Picture contender is a solid gold combination.

Speaking of editing showcases, I’d be quite surprised if the critical favorite “United 93” missed out here, despite Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson being unseasoned on the awards circuit. The work from Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione on “Babel,” another Best Picture contender with showy editing, also strikes me as a very likely nominee.

Then we come to Joel Cox’s collaborations with Clint Eastwood on his Iwo Jima films. I have little doubt Cox will be nominated (along with Gary Roach) for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” The real question, as far as I’m concerned, is whether he’ll be able to double dip with an accompanying nod for “Flags of Our Fathers.” My suspicion is no, because Lucia Zucchetti is also floating around with her concise, archival-integrating work on “The Queen.” But a double nod for Cox is possible nonetheless, and I’m reasonably confident in saying the five Drama nominees will come from these six titles.

As for the comedy/musical category, Virgina Katz is clearly leading the way for “Dreamgirls.” Pamela Martin’s cutting of the extremely popular “Little Miss Sunshine” is right behind her.

Piecing together the right takes from a wealth of footage on “Borat” must have been a challenge, so I think Chris Alpert, Peter Teschner and James Thomas can probably count on a mention. Matt Cheese’s work on “Stranger than Fiction” was also showier than your typical comedy, so I think he’ll show up as well.

My suspicion is that Mark Livolsi, who was nominated last year for “Wedding Crashers,” will round up the nominees with a follow-up nod for “The Devil Wears Prada.”

The main challenger, in my opinion, is “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.” Stephen E. Rivkin and Craig Wood won this award, after all, for the original. Dana E. Glauberman is also a possibility, depending on how deep the support for “Thank You for Smoking” runs.

Cinema Audio Society (CAS) (nominees announced January 18, 2007)

Lastly we come to the Cinema Audio Society, which recognizes achievement in Sound Mixing. Of the 30 Oscar nominees for Best Sound Mixing this decade, 25 have been nominated by the CAS – a very important precursor for the category, indeed.

Of the five recent CAS nominees who have missed come Oscar time, three (“Shrek,” “Catch Me If You Can,” “The Bourne Supremacy”) were what I’d describe as fun and light films, while the other two (“Crash,” “Finding Neverland”) were Best Picture nominees in the midst of receiving A LOT of love from the guilds.

The big musical, “Dreamgirls,” is practically assured of getting a nomination for favorites Michael Minkler and Bob Beemer. And speaking of favorites, Kevin O’Connell and Greg Russell have gotten five nominations this decade en route to Oscar nods. I doubt they’ll miss out on a tip of the hat for a sound spectacle like “Apocalypto.”

But what I’m most curious to see with regards to the CAS is how they treat the Clint Eastwood’s efforts. Both “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” have the same crew: Gregg Rudloff, John Reitz, Dave Campbell and Walt Martin. So will they go for the surefire Best Picture nominee (“Letters”) or the more traditional sound nominee (“Flags”)? Can they both make it, or will they cancel each other out? How these films affect each other in the crafts races is something that remains to be seen.

The CAS might also be the first place to show some love for “World Trade Center,” which has been M.I.A. this awards season. Mixer Scott Millan is a favorite, after all.

Bruckheimer efforts are also frequent nominees in this field, and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” was not only a hit of colossal proportions but also a sound spectacle. My hesitation comes from a possible “been there, done that” syndrome, but it probably has the advantage over other popcorn titles such as “Casino Royale” and “Superman Returns.”

Two animated features this year – “Cars” and “Happy Feet” – proved themselves to be sound showcases. But “Shrek” remains the only animated film to ever be nominated by the CAS, so I doubt they’ll get citations here, even if they sneak in come Oscar time.

Lastly we have Tom Fleischman and company’s work on Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed.” The film may not be stereotypically bombastic in its sound design, but you can do “loud” a number of different ways. “The Departed” carved its own niche in that regard.

That’s all for today. We’ll finish up tomorrow with The Art Directors Guild and the American Society of Cinematographers.