You really think the Diving Bell and the Butterfly is going to be more popular with the Academy voters then Michael Clayton AND Sweeney Todd??

For that matter, do you think it even has a better chance at getting selected then There Will Be Blood??

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Diving Bell make the final five (i'm not a fan of Into the Wild or No Country).

I just think the Academy may choose to reward it in other categories (like possibly director, and cinematography, etc..)and save that final spot for a more high profile film.

I think Sweeney might have a real good shot of getting selected if it does well at the box office, if for no other reason, then making the telecast for interesting to a larger audience base. They shouldn't, but I can't help but think that tv ratings do count for something. Besides, Sweeney is probably a good bet to land at least six or seven Oscar nominations in different categories. It's hard to believe it could conceivably land that many nominations, and NOT also get a Best Picture nod (especially if Burton gets a best director nom).

Anyway, I love your site Kris. Both Red Carpet, and In Contention. They make following the Oscar race alot of fun. I also appreciate the fact you take the time to respond to posts. That's way cool of you. Some of the people who post on this site can get a little testy with you sometimes, but it's only because they want to be you. Remember that.

I don't think seven nods without a Best Picture berth is out of the question for Sweeney. It's the kind of thing that a lot of the crafts people will appreciate on those fronts, but I don't see a large chunk of people calling it the best film of the year on their ballots (which is kinda what it takes to land the spot).

As for Diving Bell, yeah, I think it gets in over There Will Be Blood a hundred times over. The LA critics (despite Scott Foundas' tirade) wanted to distinguish themselves and they did. The critics groups showed they have an affinity for the film. But the more populist BFCA only gave it three nominations. Sure, one of them was Best Picture, but landing a spot out of ten isn't difficult in a year like this.

I still don't belileve in Clayton as a Best Picture possibility, so I need to see guild action before taking that step.

I generally like these charts. I'm still not convinced on Juno, but I do admit that it could catch fire and be undeniable.

My problem with Diving Bell is this: The last two foreign language films that were nominated for best picture were both huge cultural events that went on to gross over 200 million dollars worldwide. The last one before that was a very simple, pretty, unobjectionable film that had the added pathos of its star dying. The academy's aesthetic has changed, and they could break this trend, but that history has to be taken into account.

There's something funky with your Director chart, Kris. You're predicting six nominees and you have Joe Wright in there. But on your chart page you have Lumet as #6 and Wright as #7.

I think Diving Bell has an uphill climb to get into a Best Picture spot. The sheer Oscar-friendly star power behind Michael Clayton and Sweeney Todd as well as the sure-to-be-devoted following for There Will Be Blood will be tough to overcome.

Can't wait for your GG picks tonight, Kris!

Thanks BNick. Forgot to remove Wright from the sidebar.