Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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« Mark Isham and Dario Mari… | Main | "No Country" wins NYFCC..… »

Psyche! -- 12/10 Chart Update

divingbelledit.jpg


I was going to leave the charts alone for another week, but with the top ten column coming in seven days, I figured I'd get something out there. And what I've decided to do is let the charts reflect what the race looks like NOW, with only critics groups and the NBR having spoken (none of which vote for Oscars), prior to the NYFCC's announcement later today, the BFCA tomorrow and the HFPA on Thursday.


What I've come up with here I frankly am not happy with. There are a few things kept afloat here and there at my own prognosticative behest. There are other factors afoot, things that those given to coverage with perspective take into account. It isn't just a precursor map painted for perfect predicting, but for some reason, a lot of people out there want to think that's the case. I'm not sure where that disconnect in logic happened along the way the last few years, but it has happened regardless.


I'm in line with what David Poland said in his blog yesterday, that this year the critics will be less influential than in any other year. It's something I said way back when, that the critical consensus will marginalize itself consideraby this season, and I think that's what we're seeing. But, to steer clear of empty proclamations that I'm "attempting to affect the race," I figured I'd lay out this set of predictions this week and then take my own council in seven days' time.


Enjoy:


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"


2006 Predictions Archive

Comments

Kris, if Blood sweeping the LAFCC means nothing, what do you make of these statistic, according to Sasha Stone:

Almost every film that won Picture, Actor, and Director would go on to be nominated for Best Picture for the Oscars, and all of these films are important ones.

The only two that didn't get Best Pic nods got other Oscar noms:

Sideways
Saving Private Ryan
LA Confidential
Secrets and Lies
Leaving Las Vegas [won Best Actor, nominated for three others]
Pulp Fiction
Unforgiven (won best pic)
Bugsy
Goodfellas
Do the Right Thing [nominated for two Oscars]
E.T.
Terms of Endearment [won]
Kramer vs. Kramer [won]
Network


Phreelee, the list is not fully accurate in that she missed Brazil, which wasn't nominated, and Brokeback Mountain, which was.

Nevertheless, I think that the LAFCA IS important. I'm just surprised Kris. You were so insistent There Will Be Blood was no Oscar film. And now it's number 3 on your list. It's time you go with the general concensus (which you finally are doing).

Hahaha. Going with the generaly consensus is not the best plan. Like I said, to steer clear of comments saying I'm trying to sway the race by predicting outside the box, I'm just offering a list of charts that reflect the "consensus" as of now. But like I said, I'm not happy with any of them and rest assured, unless Blood wins the NYFCC in a short while, they'll be drastically different next week. The waters are just oo muddy right now for me to predict soundly, I feel.

General consensus wouldn't have allowed a Letters from Iwo Jima prediction last year. Guess I was out to lunch on that one, too...

Yes, the general consensus was wrong about the Dreamgirls/Letters from Iwo Jima thing, but you dropped Letters from your Best Picture predictions as well. There are always surprises. Either way, you were predicting outside the box by saying No Country for Old Men was not a shoo in for Best Picture. I'm starting to think you were wrong about that. But There Will Be Blood, having won the LAFCA, will at least remain in the top 7. It never should have been taken off the charts.

I dropped it because of "general consensus." More and more, I feel like i need to stop listening to the "voices," so to speak.

And yes, blas, it should have been taken off the charts. Have you even seen it? People who were doing cartwheels over the film even thought it had no shot. And LA means something, but it's still possible it'll get the lone director not (the directors WILL get behind it). Nothing is in stone, so don't come around here telling me that I should have done this or I should have done that. Get your own website and pontificate away if that's your desire.

As for No Country, I've conceded all along that the critics groups would rise up in support of this film. Who figured they wouldn't? It would be foolish to think otherwise. But the Academy does what they want to do when they want to do it.

This isn't my first BBQ.

Also, when "American Splendor" won best pic rom LA in 2003, would it have "at least remained int he top 7?" Ditto "Brazil" in 1985? Please. Just because a critics group speaks, doesn't mean you have to jump...common mistake that's being AMPLIFIED this season, largely because there are so many newbie prognosticators on board.

Still no Jennifer Garner in the top 10 of supporting actress? She's looking pretty good right now.

I recall you were the first to say There Will Be Blood had no best picture chances, and everyone followed your lead, but that's just what I remember.

I could start a blog but it'd maybe do me little good because I do not have the reputation that you have. You've spent a lot of time building to get to where you are, and in my opinion, you are one of the most important Oscar bloggers out there. I wouldn't be visiting both your sites if that weren't the case.

And American Splendor only won two awards from LAFCA, as for There Will Be Blood took home 4 and nearly 3 others. Has there been that large of a sweep at LAFCA? That speaks a lot. As does it's 6 nominations from Chicago and the win from NYFCO. Brazil, well we all know the story about that one. The original release bombed and the director's cut was lucky enough to get a release, let alone get nominations.

And I'm not jumping just because LAFCA spoke up. I've been thinking There Will Be Blood would get a BP Oscar nomination since April. I still feel you shouldn't have dropped it from #3 or #4 or w/e it was originally at to number #11 or #12, and then just push it all the way back up to #3 like that. But that's just my opinion, and I'm just a reader. Take it with a grain of salt if you still feel differently.

Alright, blas, your opinion has been taken into account. I still think the film will turn voters off -- considerably more so than No Country. See it, then let's talk.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon