Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation

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It’s that time of year: the annual “you must be insane” in-depth glance at the upcoming Oscar season – a full year in advance.


I stay away from year-in-advance prognosticating until the day after the Oscars largely because it is around this time of year that we really get something resembling a handle on such shenanigans. Entering the spring months, we can ascertain what films look likely to be finished in time, which have already gotten the bump to next year, which haven’t yet gone before cameras (and thusly, likely won’t release by year’s end), etc. Additionally, Sundance has clued us into a thing or two, and considering the success of “Little Miss Sunshine” in 2006, it would behoove us all to wait until that key week has come and gone before tossing ideas about.


So…let’s do it!


I’ve had the initial conversations with publicists regarding the awards product on the horizon, but even getting into what thick of it we can, I must say the 2007-2008 Oscar season looks miraculously ambiguous from afar (imagine that). After last year’s woeful showing in year in advance prognostication, I’m certainly not keen on taking an early look too seriously, but even for my tastes, the year ahead is a bit murky.

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The film on the tip of everyone’s tongues is Tim Burton’s “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” but I confess I feel the touch of “Dreamgirls” all over this film’s hype. Indeed, I was one of a very few individuals unwilling to give Bill Condon’s film the benefit of the doubt a year in advance, and I must say, I’m tempted to go the same route with Burton’s latest. Regardless, I think it might be premature to think that just because a film has so much multi-branch potential it is somehow in the golden position. This year’s crop of Best Picture nominees shared, after all, the lowest number of total nominations in decades.


So where are the heavy-hitters going to make their home? Warner Bros. had the lion’s share of nominations this year, but if I were a betting man, I’d say Paramount Vantage and the Perception PR team will capitalize on what is clearly the most stacked studio lineup of the 2007 lot. Marc Forster’s “The Kite Runner” seems to be in the poll position, with the latest efforts from Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”) and the Coen brothers (“No Country for Old Men”) not far behind.


Sean Penn will come to the dance with “Into the Wild,” looking like “Grizzly Man” meets “Cast Away,” while funny bones will be tickled by Noah Baumbach (“Margot at the Wedding”) and Mike White (“Year of the Dog”). Early word on the dailies for Michael Winterbottom’s “A Mighty Heart” seems to be positive enough, so perhaps Angelina Jolie is a lead actress frontrunner for now?


Coming in right behind Vantage might well be Time Warner’s umbrella of companies, starting at the foot of the mountain in Burbank with Warner Bros. and an interesting array of unique offerings.


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It seems one of my most anticipated films, Andrew Dominik’s “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” will finally make its way to screens. “Sweeney Todd” (a WB domestic excursion, mind you) will of course slash its way into the competition, while genre offerings will abound as well (“300,” “I Am Legend”). We’ll get another “Harry Potter” installment (“The Order of the Phoenix”), a Rob Reiner geriatric comedy that could be brilliant or terrible (“The Bucket List”), a great role for Jodie Foster in Neil Jordan’s return (“The Brave One”) and – of all things – a remake of “Mostly Martha” (“No Reservations”).


Picturehouse will try to build “Pan’s Labyrinth”-level steam with “Silk” and “La Môme,” among others, while New Line places its hopes on “Love in the Time of Cholera” and “His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass.” Chocked full of technical talent the latter is.


Paul Haggis haters might well explode if “In the Valley of Elah” hits the ground running for Warner Independent, or maybe the studio will find traction with Michael Haneke’s remake of his own film, “Funny Games.”


Of the entire Time Warner product, I expect WB’s “Michael Clayton” from director Tony Gilroy to be a big play, with George Clooney in the lead as a weathered veteran lawyer.


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Speaking of Hollywood’s favorite liberal, he sets up directorial shop at Universal with “Leatherheads,” joining a who’s who of helming talent on Lankershim Blvd. Ridley Scott (“American Gangster”), Paul Greengrass (“The Bourne Ultimatum”), Shekhar Kapur (“The Golden Age”) and Garry Marshall (“Georgia Rule”) will all be vying for the Oscar strategic wit of Tony Angellotti and Michael Moses, but I’m betting they’ll all have to take a back seat to Mike Nichols’s “Charlie Wilson’s War” in that regard.


Uni’s dependent arm, Focus Features, looks to actually have something for Oscar marketers to work with this year following a mere handful of potential in 2006. The big dog on campus (considering the favored release date) looks to be Terry George’s “Reservation Road,” which might well mean the Oscar for Joaquin Phoenix after having to bow out two years ago to make way for Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Joe Wright, meanwhile, will follow up “Pride & Prejudice” with the Ian McKewan adaptation, “Atonement,” a vehicle that could mean a lot for the awards careers of Keira Knightly and, especially, James McAvoy.


David Cronenberg is ready to party again with “Eastern Promises,” working from a script by the brilliant and underrated Steven Knight. Ang Lee shrugs off the “Brokeback Mountain” disappointment with “Lust, Caution,” while Michael Cunningham’s “Evening” will make its way to screens, bursting with prime female roles. Michel Gondry’s “Be Kind Rewind” could merely be more kookiness, or it could be something that rings “their” bell again, while Don Cheadle has a real opportunity in “Talk to Me,” Kasi Lemmons’s “The Caveman’s Valentine” follow-up.


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Finally, MGM and United Artists are leaping head-long into the fray, the former sharing duties with a number of Weinstein Company offerings, the latter heating up with Tom Cruise wielding the magic production wand. “Lions for Lambs” has everyone saying “hmmm,” while Robert Benton’s “The Feast of Love” could be a return to form – or not. Werner Herzog’s “Rescue Dawn” could be an opportunity for Christian Bale and especially Steve Zahn, and who’s not going to get a kick out of Ryan Gosling falling in love with a blow-up doll in “Lars and the Real Girl?” Academy Award nominee Ryan Gosling, that is.


Oh yeah, and Milos Forman’s “Goya’s Ghosts” finally has domestic distribution: Samuel Goldwyn Films.


Chirp. Chirp.


A few films still need a buyer. Francis Ford Coppola’s “Youth Without Youth,” should it hit screens, will do so on the tenth anniversary of “The Rainmaker.” Woody Allen’s “Cassandra’s Dream” is floating around. Alan Ball has an untitled “Towelhead” adaptation that could be huge. Richard Attenborough’s “Closing the Ring” might be more of the last gasp of Merchant-Ivory-ish fare in the spirit of “The White Countess” and “The Painted Veil,” and Sidney Lumet has “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” waiting for someone to take it seriously. Given the fate of the vastly underrated “Find Me Guilty,” should we hold our breath?


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As for trends, it might very well be the year of the long title. Here’s a sampling:


“And When Did You Last See Your Father?”
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”
“Dragonlance: Dragons of Autumn’s Twilight”
“Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer”
“Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix”
“His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass”
“Love in the Time of Cholera”
“Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End”
“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”


Here’s hoping we don’t run out of breath by season’s end.


In any case, we’re off. 2006 is a memory and 2007 is lurking, waiting for its moment to jump up and scream, “Didn’t think you’d get away that easy, did you?!” And so it goes.


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In the sidebar, you’ll find my eyes-closed, fingers-crossed stabs in the dark at where I think the individual races might go. I’ve also cooked up the year’s first charts (see below), a lengthy list of contenders (by category) and a films-by-studio rundown for your own researching pleasure.


Oh, and just to be as ridiculous as I can possibly be (I’m a completist, after all), I’ve gone ahead and made some winner predictions for the nutter in us all. Why the hell not?


And with that, I’m DONE. It’s time for an extended vacation. The Oscar season has officially exhausted me, and hopefully, after a couple of months’ rest, some relaxing travel, a few solid days on the shores of Kauai, maybe I’ll be ready to pick the boulder up again in July and start lugging it back up the mountain. Or maybe I’ll hold off until August. I don’t know yet. But in the meantime, enjoy the early look, and I’ll see you when I see you.


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
2007 Year in Advance Winner Predictions


2006 Predictions Archive

Comments

I'm curious as to why you're placing Helena Bonham Carter in the supporting category. Unless they've made some dramatic alterations to the story, it's a lead role.

Ok, that's courageous, predicting this far in advance! You're probably better off on vacation! :p

I for one will be rooting for Cate Blanchett to win (she was robbed for her previous turn as QEI, let's hope they rectify that this time!)

La Mome is out in my neck of the woods, I should be seeing it sometime this week or next. For the moment the European echoes are good!

Kris....
What are your thoughts on the Adrien Brody/Penelope Cruz Biopic about the famous bullfighter "Manolete"?
http://www.manolete-derfilm.de

It's on my radar, as indicated in the contenders section. That's...about it, for now.

Kris, assuming he can find distribution, Francis Ford Coppola just stinks to me of lone director status for some reason.

Indeed he does. I made the decision to leave all films lacking distribution as of now off of the predictions, given the fiasco of "Goya's Ghosts" last year and, well...it just cleans things up. But all films, including those without distribution, are indicated in the cotenders sections (by studio and by category).

Relatively certain Scarlett's role would be considered lead in The Other Boleyn Girl. Has there been any news regarding Bernard and Doris?

Love the Romola Garai prediction. I've been mulling that one over for a while.

Jamie: I've never read the book, but wouldn't she fit the evil bitch supporting role? Isn't the story more Anne-centric?

I've read the Boleyn Girl script, and depending on how they cut it, the roles are equal. So, all things being equal, it would be like choosing between Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed. Anyway, I don't think Scarlett J. is a good enough actress to pull this off, and I have serious doubts about Portman. I'm predicitng this will fall flat.
Sweeney Todd will likely be another Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Too Depp indulgent for it's own good.
Romola Garai seems a very choice from what I hear of Atonement and Abbie Cornish may ride Cate Blanchett's inevitable coattails to a nom as well.
Don't count out Evan Rachel Wood for Across The Universe, as this may be the musical to rise above the Hairspray as well as the demon barber of Fleet Street!

Oh, can I say one more thing? If Angelina Jolie gets a nom for doing black face I will be extremely upset!

Sam,
Please educate yourself about blackface before throwing out the term. Blackface originated in the mid 19th century Minstrel shows where white entertainers (and later black entertainers) caricatured slaves. Blackface was more than an actor painting his face darker than his natural skintone. It was about exploiting a racist stereotype. It was about acting as if one was uneducated, amoral, greedy, stingy, asexual and later hyper-sexual. That is not what they're doing with Angelina Jolie in this movie. A couple of years ago NPR had a brilliant piece on the history of minstrel shows and it's worth a second listen. Also if you haven't already, please read "A Mighty Heart" by Marianne Pearl to learn how she defines herself both ethnically and culturally, a daughter of an Afro-Cuban mother and a Dutch Jew, born and raised in France.

What about Fincher's Curious Case of Benjamin Button?

Considering how far out we are, these are about as sane as you can possibly get (Though I think Sweeney Todd will pull a Geisha and just get a lot of techs).

One thing to consider though: POTC3 for costumes. Not only are you having the usual English dresses and such, you're also going to have plenty of Asian costumes courtesy of Chow Yun-Fat's character and his crew. Could be too much for the Academy to resist.

Oh, ad 3:10 to Yuma moved back to 2007. Yet another film to consider.

I mentioned the move of 3:10 at the Blog, Jon, thanks. But I'll just wait until the summer to update that.

Gittes: Eric Roth tells me that Button will not be out until 2008...and that production is coming along swimingly. Looking forward to that one.

In the book at least Mary Boleyn, Scarlett's character, is the sympathetic one. So unless they try to bump Portman up to lead because her role is the more showy of the two, I think we're looking at two lead performances. I'm hoping for some attention for Kristin Scott Thomas in a supporting role.

You really should consider Samantha Morton as Mary, Queen of Scots in the Elizabeth sequel. It's great casting, and I could imagine her stealing scenes like a bandit.

Kris, I know this is way in advance, but I'm a big fan of Batman as well and I think Heath Ledger has a shot at a best supporting nom for Dark Night. He's slightly basing his Joker character after Alex Delarge in Clockwork Orange = possible amazing performance by Heath. In any case, 08 is in a long time from now, but...

No Oscar shall taint the Batman franchise. None!

To Cleopatra Jones
I am sorry if you were offended by my calling Angie's stint in A MIghty Heart blackface. I am well aware of what blackface is. I actually stole that quote from Thandie Newton when she was shown a photo of Miss Jolie made up to look like a woman of color. I believe she was rather shocked.
I have a large problem with this casting, as I would, in this day and age if a white actor were playing asian, or Native or hispanic for example. It wasn't so long ago that Marlon Brando was playing Japanese and Laurence Olivier played a Moor.
Marianne Pearl is of mixed race granted. But the fact that they had to darken Jolie's skin for the role, and gave her a curly wig and contact lenses puts it out of her league in my book.
After the diversity shown in this years movies and the strides that have been made...this offends me and seems like a step backward.

No mention of Michael Douglas in King of California. Deliberate?

I know I might be ridiculed for saying this but isn't Ben Affleck's movie getting some good vibes? Gone baby gone I think it's called. His directorial debut.

Adam, Gittes, is no one looking at that Contenders page?

http://incontention.com/predictions/contenders_categories.html

Douglas is mentioned clearly. Just BARELY missed the chart, actually. And Gone, Baby, Gone is all over the place (and might be Miramax's only play, from what I hear.)

Don't underestimate Away From Her, especially in the acting categories. If Peter OToole got a nomination, expect Julie Christie to get one as well. the film may even be strong enough for Lion's Gate to promote it for picture and director, though with the move of 3:10 to Yuma, they'll probably concentrate on that film.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon