November 25, 2006
Independent Spirit nods on Tuesday

The unveiling of the nominations of the so-called first precursor is in less than 72 hours.

So what will we see? I'm not altogether sure, primarily because I don't know if "Little Children," "Notes on a Scandal," "Venus," and "The Queen" are eligible. Moreover, the body does surprise us. Many eventual Oscar nominees who were eligible here failed to even garner nominations from this body last year (including the Best Picture winner!).

Nevertheless, I'll toss out thoughts on who I expect to show up.

"Half Nelson"
"The Last King of Scotland"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"The Queen"
"Thank You for Smoking"

Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris – "Little Miss Sunshine"
Stephen Frears – "The Queen"
Kevin Macdonald – "The Last King of Scotland"
John Cameron Mitchell – "Shortbus"
Jason Reitman – "Thank You for Smoking"

Gael Garcia Bernal – "The Science of Sleep"
Aaron Eckhart – "Thank You for Smoking"
Ryan Gosling – "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole – "Venus"
Forest Whitaker – "The Last King of Scotland"

Maggie Gyllenhaal – "Sherrybaby"
Sienna Miller – "Factory Girl"
Helen Mirren – "The Queen"
Gretchen Mol – "The Notorious Bettie Page"
Emily Rios – "Quinceanera"

Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck – "Hollywoodland"
Alan Arkin – "Little Miss Sunshine"
Steve Carrell – "Little Miss Sunshine"
James McAvoy – "The Last King of Scotland"
Michael Sheen – "The Queen"

Supporting Actress
Abigail Breslin – "Little Miss Sunshine"
Toni Collette – "Little Miss Sunshine"
Shareeka Epps – "Half Nelson"
Jodie Whitakker – "Venus"
Someone I'm totally overlooking (Phyllis Somerville if eligible)

"Half Nelson" – Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck
"The Last King of Scotland" – Peter Morgan, Jeremy Brock
"Little Miss Sunshine" – Michael Arndt
"The Queen" – Peter Morgan
"Thank You for Smoking" – Jason Reitman

"Hollywoodland" – Jonathan Freeman
"The Last King of Scotland" – Anthony Dod Mantle
"The Queen" – Alfonso Beato
"Science of Sleep" – Jean-Louis Bompoint
Someone I'm totally overlooking

Terrible, I know. I realize I'm overestimating virtually every major title. I have no confidence in anything apart from the fact that "Half Nelson" will get a good deal of love and "Little Miss Sunshine" will get nods up the wazoo (and I still feel I'm overestimating it). And I'm all off if "Little Children" is eligible (which it may very well be).

But we find out on Tuesday; and that's exciting.


What about The Painted Veil?
This film is released by Warner Independent. Surely this will qualify this film as an Indie film? If so, it will qualify for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography.

It only matters if the film cost $20mil or not (right?) so just being released by an indie label (of a major, natch) doesn't mean it's eligable.

Was Hollywoodland really that cheap to make?

IMDB lists the budget for "The Painted Veil" at $34 Million.

I thought "Hollywoodland" was shot for somewhere in the range of $13 Million.

Reitman is so winning Best First Feature.

"Someone I'm totally overlooking"

Someone crazy like Sandra Bullock (for Infamous) or Jessica Biel (The Illusionist) or, and I think this is a very possible nod, Sook-Yin Lee for Shortbus. Unless she's considered Lead.

But nevertheless, IMDb says Little Children's budget was $14mil, so...

Don't forget about Akeelah and the Bee, that certainly can get some nominations.

Good call on "Akeelah and the Bee".

"Little Children" may very well be eligible. But I'm not going to redo these now.

The more I think about it, the more it's clear "Little Children" is eligible and will be nominated. Oh well...

I told you my predictions would be terrible but this year I was even more terrible than usual.

Bring on the critics awards.

Yeah, The Painted Veil finally getting the nods that it deserved. I'm so happy with my prediction!

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