November 17, 2006
One on One Battles

With the exception of "The Good Shepherd", every upcoming title has now been seen. While I personally always find the race for nominations more exciting than the race for wins, I'll nevertheless toss out what I'm expecting to be perceived as the real battles for the statuettes (barring "The Good Shepherd" coming up and surprising everyone).

Obviously everything is wide open at this time but some categories already have races seeming to develop. Though the two ladies categories need some excitement assuming categorizations don't change.

"The Departed" vs. "Dreamgirls"

Martin Scorsese vs. Bill Condon

Peter O'Toole vs. Will Smith

Helen Mirren vs. Meryl Streep

Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy vs. Jack Nicholson

Supporting Actress
Abigail Breslin vs. Jennifer Hudson

Original Screenplay
"Little Miss Sunshine" vs. "The Queen"

Adapted Screenplay
"The Departed" vs. "Dreamgirls"

Art Direction
"Dreamgirls" vs. "Marie Antoinette"

"Dreamgirls" vs. "Flags of Our Fathers"
Though I think this race is very very wide open

Costume Design
"Dreamgirls" vs. "Marie Antoinette"

Film Editing
"The Departed" vs. "Dreamgirls"
An enlightening race indeed

"Apocalypto" vs. "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

Music - Original Score
"The Good German" vs. "Notes on a Scandal"

Music - Original Song
"Dreamgirls" vs. "An Inconvenient Truth"

Sound Editing
"Cars" vs. "Flags of Our Fathers"

Sound Mixing
"Dreamgirls" vs. "Flags of Our Fathers"

Visual Effects
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" vs. "Superman Returns"

Foreign-Language Film
"Pan's Labyrinth" vs. "Volver"

Animated Feature
"Cars" vs. "Happy Feet"

Documentary Feature
"An Inconvenient Truth" vs. "Shut Up and Sing"


I'd pit costumes as Dreamgirls vs. Golden Flower. I don't think Marie will go anywhere toward a win. Might be a different story if costume designers were the only ones voting for the win.

I expect Golden Flower to take it, actually. But we'll see.

Oh, and I feel like the only buzz on a Streep win is coming out of the Poland camp. But he's finally seen Notes on a Scandal now, and so maybe that tune will change. I think it's going to be Dame vs. Dame in the end (with Dench deserving it all over the place).

I think Mirren will win every. single. precursor.

So I went with Streep as an alternate only because she can win the Globe.

I get what you're saying on Marie Antoinette. But the costumes are the sort which garner "wows" from everyone who sees the film.

We'll see what happens on "Curse of the Golden Flower"; Sony has a pretty stacked plate.

Never underestimate Renee Zellweger for Miss Potter. I think she is a shoe in for Best Actress.

I think Golden Flower could beat out Antoinette as well. I wonder how Sony hard Sony will push the film.

Sony and Sony Classics handle Oscar campaigns in entirely different ways and through entirely different PR firms. And frankly, SPC is the studio that does better with the awards season each time out. They spent more money last year than they ever have, and they're PR firm isn't spread all over various studios like Sony is via 42 West, among others. It's all Block-Korenbrot, and they've been doing a damn fine job every year.

I think you're way off on original screenplay. That battle is Babel vs Little Miss Sunshine.

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