1/21 Chart Update -- FINAL PREDICTIONS
You ever just want it all to stop?
This year is officially the hardest year to do this thing we do, and I am quite comfortable in saying that I've been around the block. Scott Bowles of USA Today called me up this afternoon, as is tradition these last few years it seems, to bandy about this notion of no clear frontrunners. I ultimately chalked it up to the sheer glut of quality product 2007 saw at the multi-plexes. Deeper even than that, it may be due to the apparent fact that one would be hard pressed to disagree with a lot of the effort on display, that blanketing of acceptibility I've talked about more than a few times in this space.
Maybe, then, that aura carries itself over to the balloting phase of Oscar voting, where we are likely to see the closest race yet. Or, maybe it's all a smokescreen and what was going to be, as always, is going to be.
With that, I'm following my inner muse. I can't bank on a five-for-five match-up with the PGA, as that is a group, even in the years since a vast inner shake-up within the membership, never predicts the ultimate five with such clarity. In years when the guild nominated six or more films, it still wasn't privy to one of the eventual AMPAS faves. Regardless of that, the conventional wisdom is "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood."
I can't do it. I just can't.
Equally, I find it difficult to bank on the DGA, that most accurate of bellweathers, because, well, it just feels off base. However, a glance at the sidebar will indicate that I've done just that, opting for the "surprising" snub of passionate (and personal) favorite, "Juno." Reasons are both abstract and meaningful, but i've got to say, an ultimate Oscar tally of three just doesn't compute for a film with so much "passion." A lack of a DGA nomination feels indicative of...something. Maybe not. I guess if Jennifer Garner hears her name tomorrow, I'll have been proven quite wrong indeed. Sad, considering how long it has been at the top of my radar.
Elsewhere, I feel "Atonement" is lurking, waiting to pounce. The biggest reason I have held on to this column all day long is because I couldn't square myself with the film NOT getting a Best Picture nod. The lack of guild representation doesn't compute. The WGA didn't even receive screeners. The BAFTA cross-over voters are sure to make a difference in some way, but, alas, I find myself far too chicken to go there. Thankfully that rogue sentiment isn't mirrored in at least one of my colleagues' assessments, as Brian Kinsely said damn the "Blood" praise to hell...he's sticking with the Brits.
In my many chats with cinematographers this year, a couple of films popped up over and over again. They were the Roger Deakins efforts and Janusz Kaminski's celebrated work on "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." But something that garnered a more impressive showing from the collective than I might have imagined was industry (and branch) favorite Harris Savides, mostly for his lensing of "Zodiac." I've gone out on that limb as a result, knocking ASC nominee Seamus McGarvey in the process. Normally I wouldn't bother with the explanation, but I felt it was best to clarify that in this space before reading through a ton of comments and emails asking for as much.
My vote tally isn't necessarily indicative of much beyond the fact that, clearly, I expect a big showing for "Into the Wild." This flies in the face of everything you'll read on the net this week, but things are never as they seem. And a whisper campaign against this film has been afoot in at least two quarters for most of the season, so you eventually have to drown out the voices and look at the stats. The industry, apparently, likes the film. Sean Penn's personal life may or may not have an impact here, but whatever the case, one has to presume that a healthy number of significant supporters will be behind this, his most accessible film to date.
But I'm more than prepared to be wrong. I've been wrong so much this season I've gotten kind of used to it. Even here as I sit, "No Country for Old men" and "There Will Be Blood" seem like such...anti-Academy efforts. Yet there they are, #1 and #2 respectively. "Michael Clayton" feels too pedestrian (even though the first place you likely saw it predicted was here...11 months ago), but there it is, at #3.
I don't know, it's going to be an interesting morning, to say the least. When the dust settles, hindsight will, as always, be 20/20, and the two words of the day will undoubtedly be "OF COURSE!"
We'll see. We'll see.
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Previous Oscar Columns:
01/14/08 - "1/14 Chart Update"
01/07/08 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/24/07 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/12/07 - "12/12 Chart Update"
12/10/07 - "12/10 Chart Update"
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"
Comments
Frank Langella and Emile Hirsch over Johnny Depp? Any particular rationale behind that choice?
Posted by: Jamie![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 21, 2008 07:58 PM
Not really. I get the feeling the Academy didn't really see the depth in that performance, and, really, I'm betting the group wasn't high on the film beyond techs. Kind of what one might expect, I suppose.
Langella is a gut thing. Might be totally wrong, but it is just the kind of older-bloke perf that could move into contention. With a better studio push, he would have been assured the spot. We'll see if the Academy put in the DVD.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 21, 2008 08:30 PM
I guess I am guilty of not seeing the depth in Depp's performance either. Recently, all of his work has simply blended together.
Posted by: Mario Borroto![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 21, 2008 08:41 PM
My predicted line-up
Atonement
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
I cannot imagine the Brit bloc and the techs not voting for Atonement. Schnabel gets the lone director slot (Wright gets bumped out)
Posted by: sid![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.incontention.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 22, 2008 12:28 AM