Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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1/14 Chart Update

diving3.jpg


My apologies for the lateness of this column.


With a week’s worth of guilds behind us, the underlying picture of the industry’s favorites has taken on a certain shape that is difficult to ignore. Five films (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Into the Wild,” “Juno,” “Michael Clayton,” “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood”) have surfaced as definitive frontrunners for the five coveted Best Picture slots, and with a week to go before the nominations announcement (and ballots being submitted before the late Globes rush for “Atonement” and “Sweeney Todd”), the smart money would be on five of these contenders.


But there is no “smart money” in the Oscar game, is there? Why can’t I shake the feeling that, as so often is the case with the Academy, the group will go its own way and afford at least a shock or two? Can we really be so “locked in” to the line of logic that “Juno” is our Best Picture nominee sans director bid, while Julian Schnabel is tailor-made for a lone director nomination? Isn’t that, I don’t know…too easy? Yet that’s what I’m predicting still, as I have been for months upon months. It just seems too convenient a scenario.

I’m quite willing to offer up humble pie when I miss the boat, and so it is with much humility that I’m prepared to say “I was wrong” about “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood.” At the same time, guild support for those films was never something I was betting against. Perhaps “Blood” surprises me more than the Coens’ effort, but even that was assured many of the tips of the hat it received this week.


willbeblood10.jpg


Thankfully I see there actually are levelheaded readers out there, witnessed by a comment in the comments section below about how obviously un-Academy “Blood” is. But this is a world with more than its fair share of fanboys and biased bystanders, so it was kind of inevitable that I would take shots for leaving the film (one of my favorites of the year) off of the charts for so long.


“No Country” is a different story altogether. Again, it was destined for the guild nominations it received, but beyond that, actual Academy members are beginning to jump on the bandwagon as if they feel they NEED to do so. Where early reactions were quite deflated, recent chatter has been through the roof. Make of that what you will.


The one film I totally missed the boat on was “Michael Clayton,” a well made, craftily written, but painfully average lawyer drama that has just set this town ablaze. I chalk it up to the Clooney factor and the fact that heavy-hitters like Steven Soderbergh, Anthony Minghella and Sidney Pollock are on producing duties, but it certainly has been one hell of a reception for Tony Gilroy’s directorial debut. Couldn’t have happened to a cooler guy, however, so I can’t get all grumpy about it. I didn’t see it coming, regardless. So never underestimate the Academy’s attraction to “good enough.”


clayton1.jpg


“Juno” is the one film set to get a nod that has made considerable money going into announcement, and that might just be enough to sneak it through. The film didn’t have the guild showing it might have (missing a DGA nomination is telling, considering the group awards its Best Picture choices more so than its Best Director choices). But I suppose it has turned up in key areas nonetheless: ACE, PGA, WGA. I believe it to be a flip of the coin between “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” and Diablo Cody’s ditty for the last slot, but who knows what kind of goodwill Julian Schnabel’s film has earned behind the scenes.


Surprising PGA and DGA (given that the guild rarely goes “artsy”) nominations, as well as a showing on the makeup bake-off list, indicate that there is a real chance there -- and not exactly a totally surprising one either. The first week the film appeared on the charts was September 10, during the Toronto International Film Festival (and when it wasn’t really on anyone’s Best Picture radar). It experienced some slipping and sliding throughout October and November before making its top five debut on November 27. So, suffice it to say, I’ve considered it a contender – if they actually watched it. Apparently, “they” did.


And finally, the other “frontrunner” along with “No Country” has to be “Into the Wild,” a film clearly embraced across the board, with surprising showings with the CAS and SAG (the film led the field there). The only critics group worth noting for Oscar prognostication, the BFCA, nominated it more than any other effort (though gave it no trophies last week). Ultimately I think it may come down to this film or “Michael Clayton” for the win, to be quite honest, because “No Country” and “There Will Be Blood” seem destined to split the vote in some strange way, but we’ll see. “Clayton” has a lot of goodwill for the ailing Sidney Pollock on its side right now as well, which might be a morbid way of looking at things, but there we are.


wild2.jpg


All of this is fine and good, but I say again, it can’t be this sewn up, can it? Of course, there is no late entry the likes of “Letters from Iwo Jima” that couldn’t find guild viewership in time but had plenty of mojo left for Academy members to see it and like it. “Sweeney Todd” was, I believe, the last screener to arrive, so there might be a line of logic that the SAG didn’t see it in time. “There Will Be Blood” was late to doorsteps, but Paramount Vantage has screened it endlessly, so there have been opportunities.


And poor “Atonement” seems to be experiencing some homeland pride against the effort or something. Even “Cold Mountain,” a Best Picture miss chalked up in some circles to anti-runaway production philosophy, managed a strong guild showing. “Atonement” has popped up at the ASC and ADG and nowhere else, despite, ironically enough, winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture. Could that be the “surprise” waiting for those of us crunching the numbers for the “obvious” scenario? I can’t be sure.


For now, I’ll just go with a set of predictions, as always, and let the rest of it marinate as we lead up to next week’s announcement. Final predictions will be posted Monday.



Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts


Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
01/07/08 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/24/07 - "12/24 Chart Update"
12/12/07 - "12/12 Chart Update"
12/10/07 - "12/10 Chart Update"
12/03/07 - "12/3 Chart Update"
11/27/07 - "11/27 Chart Update"
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"


2006 Predictions Archive

Comments

Finally, you put TWBB on the charts. It's amazing how long it took you to realize it was a lock.

The big question is who will take that 5th spot - Diving Bell or Juno. I'm intrigued that you decided on Juno, because as we were discussing the other day, you were leaning toward Diving Bell.

With the PGA noms that came out today, I'm now leaning toward Diving Bell, but it really could go either way.

Spoken like a true amateur, Unison. Nothing is ever a lock.

John: Going with Juno was like a flip of the coin, honestly.

What strikes me as weird is that you had TWBB on your charts *until* you actually saw it, and then you lost all faith in it... Looking over your charts, it's tracked like this:

7, 4, 6, 4, 3, 2, off, off, off, off, off, 3, 9, 10, 4

It's taken the ratification of virtually every guild to make you set your personal gut feeling that it's not an "Oscar movie" aside.

Obviously nothing is a lock (see Dreamgirls), but you've been off-base here for a while, well behind the palpable buzz on the film.

Meanwhile, it's just as bizarre how much of a free ride you (and everyone) have given Atonement, despite seeing it back in September, and seeing that it was obviously not perfect, and despite early snubs from critics groups and SAGS. That movie's tracked like this:

4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 1, 5, 7

Again, you've finally come to your senses, realizing the film is not a likely BP nominee, but this notion that it's a lock because of its appropriateness as a nominee has been blinding a lot of people all year.

Just food for thought...

I really think that you are overestimating the chances of Into the Wild, particularly in the technical categories. I mean there is no way in my mind that Into the Wild gets a sound mixing nomination and No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood don't (I am not saying they are locks, but I would definitely see them getting nominated before Into the Wild).

Also, while I think Into the Wild will end up being nominated for Best Picture, I do think that NCFOM, Michael Clayton, Juno, and There Will Be Blood, are all more secure than Into the Wild. I think those four are pretty much locked up (I know there are no locks, but I have gone over it in my head and I can't see a list of nominations that doesn't include those four films) and Into the Wild, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and Atonement are all battling for that 5th slot.

If Juno doesen't get a nomination in the Best Director category (which it probably will not) it will only likely garner 2 other nominations (Best Actress, and Original Screenplay - 3, if it gets a Best Picture nom). Can a film with only three nominations land a Best Picture nomination??

I doubt it. More likely are Diving Bell or Atonement.

I agree Blood, No Country, Wild, and Clayton are probably in, even though if Clayton didn't make it, I wouldn't be too shocked.

Unison: I've never called anything a lock, just predicted on the basis of my own discernment as always. The same discernment that misses some things and catches others that many fail to see until it's "obvious." But it's too easy to Monday morning quarterback a situation.

chasgoose: Regarding your comment on the sound of Into the Wild, well, it takes the knowledge that sound legend Mike Minkler is more behind his work on that film than in a heavy0hitter like "American Gangster" (and certainly the more SOUND film of the two) to understand that you're wrong there. But, given that it clearly isn't information that you're privy to, it makes sense for you to say something like that.

Paddy: Simple equation of Oscar history. Go back and look at the tallies of Field of Dreams and Four Weddings and a Funeral. That said, as I indicated, it's a coin flip for me on the fifth film between Juno and Wild.

Also, Unison, since when are films that are "obviously not perfect" somehow unlikely for a Best Picture Oscar nomination? Seems to be the status quo year in and year out, actually, so there isn't a real line of logic against giving "Atonement" a "free ride" until the guilds knocked it heavily.

Kris,

Forget the Oscars, which director in your opinion crafted the best film this year??

P.T. Anderson??

Julian Schnabel??

Someone else??

If you could only pick one.

I know who Mike Minkler is thanks. Admittedly I didn't know that he is more behind Into the Wild than American Gangster (which I agree has better sound, regardless of the fact that it is an even worse movie than Into the Wild) but still, No Country For Old Men has such well-designed sound mixing that also draws attention to itself that IMHO there is no way Into the Wild gets nominated before it. Now that I know that Minkler is supporting Into the Wild, I am willing to give you that it would have a better chance than the superior sound design in There Will Be Blood, but still, not better than No Country For Old Men.

I'm not sure how one could screen There Will Be Blood and NOT consider it to be a hard sell for Oscar. I'm pretty shocked they're going for it myself.

Though if what everybody seems to think is going happen does happen (TWBB, No Country, Michael Clayton, and even Diving Bell for Best Pic), it seems that the critics will have retained their influence after all. I'm not slamming you for predicting the opposite, Kris (it was as valid a call as any), but it is worth noting.

You have six films listed as the five front-runners. I definitely understand your logic regarding using the guild nominations as a guide, but I simply cannot imagine Atonement not being nominated. I was never expecting a directing bid for Joe Wright but Picture and Adapted Screenplay just seemed like such common sense nods for so long... Maybe this is an instance of internet buzz not matching the minds of the voters? Reverse Dreamgirls effect?

I am also still holding out for some Laura Linney love. I think one of the biggest surprises of the season (aside from the complete lack of attention for Tommy Lee Jones) is that despite no clear fifth performance she has been ignored. Counting the following as most likely:

Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Ellen Page
Angelina Jolie

I would say the fifth slot is between Laura, Keira, and Cate. Knightley's performance really is supporting and with the general lack of enthusiasm for Atonement I don't see her getting in. And really? Elizabeth: The Golden Age? I know that it makes sense looking at the precursors but the Academy definitely likes Linney.

Let me just go to the heart of the matter. How many academy members are you actually talking to? What is this chatter? Is it online chatter? Becuase that would seem to skew far more to young voters. Are you talking to 5,50, or even 500 voters? That'd seem ridiculous, and yet if you were it'd still be less than 1% of the voting population. So, may I humbly suggest that, due to your constant naysaying of "No Country" despite its unparalelled consistancy at every precursor, that your sampling pool might be off.

And I like the CYA mention that academy voters feel like they "need" to vote for No Country. Oddly enough, no other voting pool has seemed to mind voting for it. You were and still are off on No Country, and when it wins I will gloat horribly.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon