Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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Around the Bend

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Ballots went out last week. The nominees luncheon is today. You’d be hard pressed to find many in the industry to disagree with the fact that this is the week that counts. This is the week that matters. But with a lot of things settling into “truth,” perhaps a bit too soon for this prognosticator’s tastes, I think I’m allowed one more week of pure speculation and instinctual discussion. So I’ll take it.


Since the announcement of the Oscar nominees two weeks ago, I’ve had the opportunity to talk with a number of the lucky individuals who get to step up to bat in the extra innings phase of the season – some twenty individuals, give or take. More will come this week, but what seems to be the tone of the conversation recently has been how incredibly open the field is, pretty much across the board. And rarely does a conversation go by without one of these folks mentioning the fate of “Dreamgirls” in the face of greater awards prognostication.


One nominee even continued the old adage verbatim: “Nobody knows anything.”

The buzz hound of the moment remains “Little Miss Sunshine,” with its gallant showing at the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. However, what many forget to consider is how those groups voted in a different spectrum, and how those wins, indeed, any wins prior to the nominations announcement, are reflective of the buzz of another time frame. The campaign that matters is the post-nominations push.


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So who is stepping up to the plate?


The biggest surge in the print arena is Cynthia Swartz, Miramax marketing and the sudden intense shove for “The Queen,” which landed a number of ads in recent trades, printed on sturdy paper and featuring a broader strategy. We see less in the way of the film being a Helen Mirren vehicle than we do allowances for other contenders to share her space. A number of ads feature Michael Sheen in tow as Prime Minister Tony Blair, or helmer Stephen Frears directing the Best Actress contender in a variety of settings.


The color scheme on this campaign has also been amped up slightly, with what could be described as a regal red catching the eye. Additionally, I’ve noticed some images of Princess Diana (taken from the footage used in the film) hovering like a specter on more than a few ads, an indication of the film’s greater importance and broader themes.


On television, high profile interviews have included Forest Whitaker, Abigail Breslin, Jennifer Hudson, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren and Judi Dench (Oprah’s show was stacked, as usual). Speaking of television, the DVD campaign for “Flags of Our Fathers” might draw consideration toward Clint Eastwood’s efforts this year, as “Letters from Iwo Jima” still remains in the interesting position of actually beginning its buzz rather than coming around the forth turn like the majority of the field. But truthfully, I’m giving that film and that campaign one more week to really keep me on board. “Letters” has and has had AMPAS written all over it from day one, but it hasn’t had the right amount of willful aggression yet. It’s now or never…looking like never.


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Gauging from internet ad purchases, it becomes kind of clear which studios really want it. And frankly, Miramax has been consistent all year long. While I’m still banking on “Letters” making something of itself in this crucial stretch (and Warners has put their money where their mouth is at times), I begin to sense “The Queen” as positioning itself quite well for the Best Picture upset. The same minds are behind this push, remember, that ushered “Crash” to the finish line last season.


“Little Miss Sunshine” is approaching that sticky backlash stage. “Liked it, didn’t love it,” the most pathetically apologetic of “buts” when it comes to that deserving film’s buzz, could manage to keep the achievement muffled. But from what I’ve heard, it is the talk of the actors’ branch.


Adore “Babel” though I may (and admittedly, I have a hard time arguing against it outside of gut instinct), I still feel like this valiant film and this rigorous campaign will have a hard time making it over the hump of that “hated it” faction than they did in the nominations stage. I would love for them to prove me wrong…again.


“The Departed,” meanwhile, remains the most wishful thinking bet of them all. And yes, even considering Martin Scorsese’s DGA win Saturday night – an award telegraphed and bound for the esteemed veteran. This is my favorite film of the nominated five, but it so clearly appeals to too specific a spectrum. I would have to consider it at the bottom of the pile, fair or not, and really, it has been a Marty awards vehicle above and beyond a broader hopeful from…the…start.


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That’s simply how the field seems to be shaking down for me. We’re still in that “anything can happen” stage, though that window is closing rapidly. Any one of the five could win, and none should be considered a surprise. How the guilds end up voting their winners could be an indication. Then again, it could simply be the parts reflective of the parts, rather than the sum. Something largely agreeable tends to be the last film standing, and if you can make a statement in so voting, it’s even better. To me, there are only two films this year that have that distinction, and so they top my chart this week.


Oh yeah, and nobody knows anything.


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
01/22/07 - "No More Bets"
01/15/07 - "Building the Perfect Beast"
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"

Comments

I think you may be on to something with Letters/Queen. Your analysis here seems spot on and very thoughtful. People so quickly write off Letters and jump on the The Departed bandwagon, but I agree that TD could end up very near the bottom when all is said and done.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon