I think it deserves main page attention, but Emily Blunt might be the sexiest actress on the screen this year.

Sure, I thought she was hot in that bitchy sort of way in last year's wretched "The Devil Wears Prada," but this year, in "Dan in Real Life" and, most especially, "Charlie Wilson's War" -- I've just never seen a girl set the screen on fire like that.

Alright, moving on to other matters...

A chart update. Finally.

Well, the absence of "Charlie Wilson's War" from all but two charts this week should give some indication as to my perception of its Oscar chances. I'm inclined to call it "Primary Colors"-lite, but regardless, at 97 minutes and feeling somewhat abridged, it's kind of turned out to be the race's ugly duckling. It's our own fault for elevating expectations, but Universal still has a very tight, easily marketable feature for the holiday season. "Hey, Merry Christmas. Remember when we fucked up in Afghanistan?? Haha." Etc.

Paramount Vantage is getting better Academy screening results for "The Kite Runner" than for "Into the Wild," which could be tricky territory for the studio to navigate. There has been no clear-cut decision from the studio to trumpet loudest for one and only one of it's trio of primed hopefuls. Some might hope for three berths, but the possibility is all too apparent for none.

"No Country for Old Men" is still an issue of discussion for those willing to discuss it, but I'm beginning to think the power of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" might be enough for Miramax to overcome the foreign factor with voters. It doesn't hurt having Max von Sydow weeping on screen and breaking hearts as a result.

The Cate Blanchett rumor-mill was shot down by Tom O'Neil initially yesterday, though others made calls (who didn't?). So no use bringing up the supporting vs. lead brou-ha-ha.

I'll let the charts speak. "Sweeney" comes Thursday, after which all cats are out of the bag.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive

I had to make Buzzmeter choices today for tomorrow's rankings, and as a result those will be all over the place following a weekend of transition in the Oscar race. I decided to hold off on updating the Oscar charts until late tonight or tomorrow morning due to this evening's screening of "Charlie Wilson's War," which could answer a lot of the race's questions. We'll see soon enough.

More to come...

Well, it's been showing here and there for a few weeks, actually. Another handful got a peek tonight, and while it isn't a reviewable product (Denzel Washington is still working on the film), there are some comments worth making.

Like pointing out a star-making turn from newcomer Nate Parker for starters. If any whispers carry on past the film itself (which will have its champions), it will be this actor's potential at the start of a new career. One fellow viewer tonight made a comparison to a young Paul Newman, and he isn't far off, I'd say.

Well, I think I'm actually going to hold off this week on updating the charts. Nothing much to go on right now. Screenings of "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd" are coming next week, so I may even give it another week after this one.

However, I will say that the perspective of my predictions are yet again becoming humorously skewed, this time as it pertains to "No Country for Old Men" (which, beyond the item I posted at Variety over the weekend, is stirring conversations in the negative regarding the film's Best Picture potential). Of course, everyone wants to paint my prediction biased because I'm not a fan of the film, but that's not the case when you don't see films I Iove in the top ten on the big chart. But that's the nature of things, people are selective about the rules they apply. So be it.

More next week. Gerard will have a column later in the week. Otherwise, enjoy the holiday.

Probably when I finally sit down to do my Buzzmeter rankings. FYI.

From today's Hollywood Reporter. It seems they are using "In Contention" as the title of a new awards analysis feature in the trade's struggling Oscar coverage department.

Now, I'm not TOO irritated, since that is a brand which will remain associated with my name in this funky corner of the web. But come on, did they have to go and use the same color scheme???

Shameless.

(Thanks to Sasha for the heads up.)

Almost no movement on the charts this week as we try to make sense of the upcoming slate of holiday product, other than pulling back on "No Country" once again. Hey, I was the only guy saying "Letters from Iwo Jima" would get nominated last year, so I don't have much issue being alone. And those detractors I said would be coming out of the wood-work are doing just that, in the form of Academy members that aren't as sold on the film as the critical community has been.

I'm beginning to think 2007 will be the year we all stop listening to critics so much when it comes to these things. Common sense tells us that critics don't vote for Oscars, but year in and year out, people start to think this critical darling or that will make it into play -- and invariably, they come up short in the big race. At the end of this year, when films like "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Michael Clayton" and, perhaps, "No Country for Old Men" fail to grab the Best Picture nominations many are predicting, maybe we'll all sit and finally take stock of that notion.

But I'm by no means foolish enough to think I could be out to lunch on this one. Lots of good films this year, lots of diversity, lots to choose from.

The charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
11/05/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive

After intense initial doubts on my part, I'm jumping onto that "No Country for Old Men" bandwagon that is galloping away at full speed. There are detractors, and they will come out of the woodwork soon enough when the film releases. But Miramax is also more and more placing a direct and concerted emphasis on this being their big hopeful, and that says a lot. Big things are going on here in town this week for the film's premiere and you can see all involved REALLY hoofing it. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" might be the more emotional film, but then again, when I spoke to Miramax president Daniel Battsek last week about "No Country," he made it a point of saying he "strongly believe[s] in the ability of this film to move people."

Sometimes it's simply about whether a studio is willing to go all out. Additionally, producer Scott Rudin (who again has a massive slate of product on display this year) probably senses "No Country" as his own best bet, expecially given that it looks like a Capra film next to "There Will Be Blood" (a contender still seen as a major possibility in the big category - usually by those who haven't seen it).

Elsewhere, "Into the Wild" is stirring the pot but somehow seems like it could still come up short. Will it hold the same majesty on the small screen as it does on the big screen? Eric Gautier's is some of the best work behind the camera this year, Sean Penn is working it, but that nasty feeling is floating around that parents in the Academy could lack the empathy for McCandless that is called for. We'll see.

Also in the animated field - the reaction that "Beowulf" was a solid gold possibility might have been a knee-jerk. Zemeckis doesn't consider motion-capture animation (it isn't) and the branch obviously felt the same way given the snub of "The Polar Express" in 2004. So maybe a true animation legend, Matt Groening, can slide in behind. Regardless, I think the phenomenal "Persepolis" may prove to be the frontrunner in due time.

Ah well, enough yapping. Here's the update:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive