December 02, 2006
Watch for Poland to predict "Letters" next week for Best Pic...

He drops one of the usual "hints" today at The Hot Blog:

I am under embargo... but I just thought I'd offer anyone who gives a damn about the Oscars this thought...

As of this week, there is a very real chance that one of the "new" movies will grab one of the five Best Picture slots, kill off Babel, Little Children, and World Trade Center once and for all, and create a major dogfight between Little Miss Sunshine and The Pursuit of Happyness for the five slot.

So as much as I rail against lust for change for the sake of change... change still happens.

I could be wrong. A second viewing will answer that question more clearly. But as with Dreamgirls, if you feed The Academy a movie that allows them to do what they really want to do, most of the time, they will do it.

"Letters from Iwo Jima" screened last night for the BFCA and LAFCA, with Clint Eastwood there to play it up for all it's worth. So when David's Thursday column lands next week, watch for "Dreamgirls," "The Departed," "The Queen" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" to fill out his top four slots, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking down #5. Basically -- the exact same chart I went with last Monday when I went out on a limb by placing "Letters" all over the place in my updated predictions.

I had a feeling this thing would come around and be a late entry powerhouse. The first word I heard on it was from Pete Hammond last week, who sang its praises and claimed "you might be right" of my expectations for the film's Oscar prospects. Now we get this and, with a ton of critics already tripping over themselves for "Flags of Our Fathers," expect even more to step up to bat for this, a likely critical darling this season.

Just sayin'...


The only other remote possibility I see is "The Good Shepherd". And I sort of doubt it.

Those I've heard from say it's very good but "small" and "foreign". I still think (as we discussed on the phone) that it needs more time to rally before it is given the best pic nod - there's also the cancelling the two films out thing and what you suggested, both getting nominated. Either way, interesting. It could also be The Good Shepard.

I'm excited about Letters but I wouldn't be surprised if Poland's is really talking about The Good Shepherd.

Pete Hammond liked a movie? Astounding.

Could it be Apocalypto?

Apocalypto isn't getting anywhere near Best Picture, hopefully.

Kris said that Apocalypto is "not Oscar material. Not even (and never would have been) Best Director material."

My prediction is THE PAINTED VEIL.

Guys, it's definitely Letters.

No one will see Good Shepherd until tomorrow afternoon.

I know for a fact Dave's not talking about Painted Veil.

Apocalypto isn't under embargo.

Letters screened for the BFCA Friday night. That's what he's going on about, it really can't be anything else.

Devin: No doubt. Pete's not the hardest guy to win over.

have YOU seen Letters??

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