October 06, 2006
October Winner Predictions

I think I'll give this a shot on a monthly basis. Here are September's predictions. This time I'm thinking:

Best Picture: "Dreamgirls"
Best Director: Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Good German"
Best Original Screenplay: "Babel"
Best Art Direction: "Dreamgirls"
Best Cinematography: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Costume Design: "Marie Antoinette"
Best Film Editing: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Makeup: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Best Music - Original Score: "The Good German"
Best Music - Original Song: "Dreamgirls"
Best Sound: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Sound Editing: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

Terrible, I know...




My biggest problem would be seeing "Dreamgirls" winning Picture without either Film Editing or Sound Mixing.
It would be very very odd to see a musical take BP without either of those awards (if Flags is admittedly also exactly what they go for there).

Though I'd say your acting predix seem like solid bets. Picture and Director also also likely for "Dreamgirls" to lose (ditto for PotC in Makeup/Visual FX).

Adapted Screenplay is the category that is giving me the most trouble right now. I'm not really feeling "The Good German" though I doubt "Dreamgirls" (words won't be the seeling point) or "Little Children" (just not an Oscar film) will take it either.

Nicole Kidman should be nominated for her work in Fur.

Dreamgirls is going to have to be awfully good to survive this hype. I mean OFF THE CHARTS. And I have a feeling that picture and director will split again this year.

Rotten Tomatoes can be helpful in predicting the oscars up to a point.
It is worth noting that neither Flags of Our Fathers nor Babel are currently posting numbers that suggest a Best Picture nomination is in the works. Flags would be one the lowest rated movies ever to be nominated as its rating is only 6.8.

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