September 04, 2006
And the winners will be...?

I never really venture guesses on something as far away as Oscar WINNERS until after Labor Day at the earliest. We're still trying to nail down predicted nominees, after all. But this year, a lot of the films are getting screened earlier than in years past. It seems precious few of the "players" have yet to cross critical eyes. And I get asked all the time "Who do you think will win?" Ah well, let's take a few stabs...

My first Oscar WINNER predictions (heaven help us all...):

Best Picture: "Dreamgirls"
Best Director: Bill Condon, "Dreamgirls"
Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Annette Bening, "Running With Scissors"
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Dreamgirls"
Best Original Screenplay: "Babel"
Best Art Direction: "Dreamgirls"
Best Cinematography: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Costume Design: "Marie Antoinette"
Best Film Editing: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Makeup: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
Best Music - Original Score: "The Good German"
Best Music - Original Song: "An Inconvenient Truth"
Best Sound: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Sound Editing: "Flags of Our Fathers"
Best Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

Boy are those crappy predictions. Ah well, at least I'm on the record now.


Heh... that would be funny; if Clint lost to ANOTHER musical.

Clint didn't lose to a musical. In his own words, he was "hobbitized".

Anyway, I think your predictions in the majors are as reasonable as any for the majors at this point, Kris. Apart from 5 wins for "Dreamgirls". That may be pushing it; I think they'll spread the wealth a least in Adapted Screenplay.

Tech-wise, I have no idea. Though if it's *that* big, I'd bet on Dreamgirls taking Editing and Sound.
I think I'd agree with you on Stern, Myrhe (again!) and the two PotC wins.
I have no idea about Score.

Though predicting winners from this vantage point is always terribly challenging.

I think Stephen Mirrione will take the prize for editing Babel. He's a proven contender and the structure of the film is difficult terrain for any editor.

I also think that Dreamgirls is going to have to really blow people's socks off to win in 5 categories. So many good films this year that the Academy may have to spread the wealth a little bit. And am I the only one that thinks Eastwood's films are totally overrated? I have Eastwood-lash.

No, you're not the only one on Eastwood. Mystic River was great, not the masterpiece it was touted to be and nothing more than what was offered in the novel. Million Dollar Baby was an outright laugh-fest if you ask me. You have to go back to A Perfect World and Unforgiven for a one-two punch I loved out of the guy, and in between, lots of uneven messes. His westerns will always be his most penetrating work. Give me Outlaw Josey Wales and Pale Rider over Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil any day.

ALL OF THAT SAID, I think these two Iwo Jima films look astounding and could have the goods.

Gerard: You're probably right, re: Adapted Screenplay.

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