February 12, 2007
Out of a Hat

So I've gotten so bored with the suspense around this year's five-horse Best Picture race that today, in full and total lameness and boredom, I decided I'd pull from a hat, and whatever I pulled, I'd predict it.

I really wish it WASN'T "Letters from Iwo Jima" that I pulled, but there it is. I guess I'm sticking with it to the bitter end.

La dee da.


So which film do you actually think will win?

You mentioned bellow that many people you knew were voting for Letters. Do you still think it has a real chance to win?

I'm still predicting Letters, because like I've said, I think it has the esteemed position of beginning its buzz post-noms rather than peaking. But seriously, any one of these films can win Best Picture. Any one.

I replied to your message at my blog.

Happy Monday, indeed.

The problem with Letters from Iwo Jima winning Best Picture is not only that it won't win Directing and Screenplay, but that the post-noms buzz you are talking about just isn't happening. Nobody is talking about it, except from the few Academy members you've spoken to. But that's all I've heard about this film. The polls say The Departed will win, and others have said that most people in the Academy are saying The Departed, others say they will vote with their heart and go for Babel, others say they will follow the SAG and PGA and go with Little Miss Sunshine. You're right in saying it could go a number of ways, but the buzz just isn't in favor of The Queen or Letters from Iwo Jima at all. But if you really think it's going to win, predict it. But if you're just predicting it because you're bored, where's the fun in that? Cheer up, the race will get more interesting next week when the other tech guilds speak. Maybe it's time we focus on those more than the big categories. Loved your article on the short films today. It was much needed to bring more excitement.

I think Letters stands a better chance of winning than Departed simply because of this: Warner Brothers obviously doesn't want it to win. This entire season they seemed to do everything in their power to prevent the Departed victory that everybody seems to want from happening. The Print ad focus is obviously Letters. The commercial buzz is for Letters.

Notice that Letter's measly domestic Box office is bolstered by Warner Brothers and promoted, but the sucessful BO champion of Departed is given an uncerimonous second release a couple weeks before its DVD comes out. Eastwood is on all of the late shows and Scorsesce doesn't get a peep. Its obvious. Warner Brothers doesn't give jack shit about the first film of the year for them to make a pure profit on.
Maybe if Scorsesce changed his last name to Zwick..

Letters was good. But can someone please explain to me how Babel is worthy of 8 Oscars? I just saw it and its not even close to as good as Traffic or Syriana. It is a little better then Crash. How does Crash win best pic and Babel get 8 noms(and might win) where Syriana wasn't even nominated for best pic??

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