Screenings of “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” and “Michael Clayton” are taking place on the Warner lot, though the studio has been adamant about embargoes (many of them crashing this weekend). The former is splitting a great number of critics, though it has been dubbed a masterpiece in some circles, while the latter is finding appreciation but little passion.

We can stick a wet finger to the win to discern some things in other quarters. For instance, there was one “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” pre-Toronto screening set (that I’m aware of), though Universal has already booked “American Gangster” all over the place post-fest and was even testing it as recently as two weeks ago. That might give an indication of Best Picture excitement, or it might not. The fact that no one seems willing to talk up “Charlie Wilson’s War” yet should be taken into account as well. It’s the closest thing to a frontrunner on paper, but no one wants that moniker the year after the most un-promoted film took the whole enchilada.

Meanwhile, I’ve heard varying things on varying films. “The Kite Runner” is apparently much better than the schmaltzy trailer would suggest, with lots of love at least from those with an interest. No one is beating down my doors about it, mind you, but it seems to be satisfying across the board. The film does seem like it could be a secret weapon for Paramount Vantage, even if they are already in the process of post-fest pushes for both “Into the Wild” and “Margot at the Wedding.”

I’ve already heard “it’s this year’s ‘All the King’s Men’” as it pertains to Gavin Hood’s “Rendition.” Apparently it might be a train wreck, though like any good journalist, I’ll suggest you take that with a grain of salt as we’ll all make up our own minds sooner or later. Keeping it in the New Line wheelhouse, some apparently felt the “Golden Compass” footage shown at Comic-Con was flat and left them unsatisfied (I missed the panel). Not good for something as epic as a “His Dark Materials” adaptation, but we’ll see how the whole picture plays out.

Oh, and last week someone told me “Lars and the Real Girl” boasts Ryan Gosling’s best performance to date, and that the film is a real winner. For what it’s worth.

Of the films already released, it seems “Hairspray” will find joy amongst the craft categories, especially in the design fields. “Once” has two original songs eligible for consideration, while “Waitress” has one, so Searchlight will be trying to get the word out on those. The summer blockbusters still look to dominate in the sound and visual effects fields, though potential sequel fatigue has Searchlight hopeful a film like “Sunshine” could penetrate for its exceptional visuals.

“3:10 to Yuma” has a week before release, but it already boasts a wealth of supporters that might just give Lionsgate the reason they need to launch a full scale attack, with merely “Trade” left to show. And, of course, the lead actress category was stacked before the Oscar season began to take shape, with Julie Christie (“Away from Her”), Marion Cotillard (”La Vie en Rose”) and Angelina Jolie (“A Mighty Heart”) already packing heat. Jodie Foster will add to that mix in two weeks with a good performance in a not-so-good film (“The Brave One”).

But for now, we wait until the dust settles in Toronto and Telluride. First looks at a number of films will tell the tale, leaving a few outlying big guns still to bow. Will upcoming efforts like “Charlie Wilson’s War” and “Sweeney Todd” still manage a foothold if the stacked festival line-up proves to be a solid one? Or could negative fallout from a variety of films leave holes in the season for such latter year entries to waltz right on through? We’ll know in two weeks time, and then it’ll be a whole new guessing game.

After all, there are only five slots to fill.

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Previous Oscar Columns:
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"

2006 Predictions Archive