I’ve heard the opinion put forward recently that the press is the Dr. Frankenstein to the monster that has been the “Dreamgirls” frontrunner momentum, and to that I say bullshit. It wasn’t the press that positioned the film as an awards event as far back as February 2006, with press visits, Cannes footage and Jennifer Hudson meet-and-greets. Those events (well, the one I personally attended) were wonderful and exactly the right kind of face time needed for a thorough Oscar campaign. But there is obvious risk in putting yourself out there so soon.

Having said that, I feel the dawning “Dreamgirls” dog pile is incredibly unfair. When the media drinks the kool aid on something, the publicity machine is fed in earnest by the press, and some responsibility should be taken by those with the power of coverage. That is speaking merely to awards status, not opinion of the film; everyone has a right to like or dislike something with whatever passion they wish. But if the awards surge of “Dreamgirls” really is on the ebb, I think it would be a tad arrogant for the media to switch gears and begin playing another drumbeat with the same fervor it did on the first tune.

And now, a film could conceivably be the victim of “falling from grace,” when truthfully, even following months of hype, “grace” should have been taken out of the equation when the film screened to the media on November 15. And that’s really sad.

I basically feel the same way I did when I wrote my review two months ago:

But even still, the talk on “Dreamgirls” will continue to be the awards season. It almost seems unfortunate that there has not, and seemingly never will be, a way to distinguish the film’s personal merits (or lack thereof) from the expectations it set for itself all year long as the prohibitive awards frontrunner. Perhaps a culture of film awards discussion is to blame for that.

But I guess people like a steamroller story as much as they like an underdog story. So the beast gets fed…regardless.

Of course, all of this could be beside the point, because a “Dreamgirls” when tonight – all too possible – keeps the film right in the stream of Best Picture contention at the Oscars. And the media will, again, be forced to turn on a dime. “Wait, what had happened was.”

It’s a disease, the need to chalk up an Oscar race, to write the ending, to consider anything foregone. And it’s as detrimental to a film’s publicity as any screw-up coming out of a studio’s marketing division could ever be. That’s why “will win” is always a poor route of travel. And that’s why “frontrunner” is a status worthy of evasion when ballots haven’t even been mailed out, let alone nominees announced. I can be as guilty as the next, but predicting and proclaiming are two different things. Reporting and covering are on a whole different, higher plain of existence. Relaxing and seeing what happens? Lending due credence to any given scenario? Keeping your nose out of it? Priceless.

As we push through one more week of Phase One, we’ve got a couple more guilds set to announce. We’ll spotlight those later in the week. For now, enjoy the Globes. I’ll be somewhere in the vicinity of the Hilton, probably intoxicated, hopefully having a blast.

The updated Oscar charts:

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
01/08/07 - "Making It Count"
12/18/06 - "Winding Down, Sorting It Out"
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"