A few notes:

The directors’ category looks to be shaping up accordingly. As “Little Miss Sunshine” looks solid for a Best Picture berth, “Babel” and “United 93” are in direct competition to take that “critics’ darling” spot away from Fox Searchlight. As such, Paul Greengrass and Alejandro González Iñárritu seem to be head to head for the directing slot likely vacated by the Dayton/Faris duo behind “Sunshine.”

The lead actor category seems to be a mess yet again. Beyond a locked nomination for Forest Whitaker and a likely nomination for Will Smith, it really is a free-for-all. Ken Watanabe is hoping to leap into the fight at the last minute. If he manages placement, he can be a threat to win the award. But for now, missing out on BFCA and Golden Globe mentions, it’s a tough road to hoe. Peter O’Toole, meanwhile, isn’t nearly the sure thing he seemed to be out of Toronto, and Ryan Gosling is hoping that thick core of passionate support survives the next 30 days.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. has FINALLY amped up a campaign of note for Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Departed.” For weeks, trade FYC ads have included all peripheral actors under the label “Best Supporting Actor,” with DiCaprio’s name just floating there, category-less, for…SOME reason.

Maybe it had something to do with the “Blood Diamond” campaign, maybe not, but immediately following BFCA and Golden Globe nominations for this, his best performance to date, the studio finally bought a giant, full page ad proclaiming the actor’s category placement: Best Actor. Perhaps it was wise to hold off for so long, but the fact remains, both performances have established equal support and he is in danger of splitting his vote, allowing room for Ryan Gosling or, perhaps, Sacha Baron Cohen. Things are tight.

The supporting actor category has also been shaken up somewhat. The push for Ben Affleck in “Hollywoodland” has been substantial. He was first mentioned as an awards contender right here back in August and after some questions arose as the awards season pushed forward, the actor is getting another wave of support from awards-giving organizations.

Mark Wahlberg, meanwhile, has stepped up as a definite possibility to join “The Departed” co-star Jack Nicholson, pushing fellow pretty boy Brad Pitt down ever so slightly. There is plenty of studio support behind the performance and Wahlberg remains one of the more memorable aspects of the film for voters.

But in yet another questionable decision by Warner Bros. campaign strategists, no support of note has been shown for Kazunari Ninomiya in “Letters from Iwo Jima,” one of the best supporting performances of the year. It was really disheartening to come across ad after ad supporting Watanabe’s lead actor push with nothing, not even two lines of print calling for the consideration of Ninomiya.

Maybe this is because no organization has taken the time to recognize the performance so far and they aren’t willing to go out on a limb for the guy yet. This is only an assumption, given what happened with DiCaprio’s “Departed” push. But Ninomiya deserves better.

The supporting ladies have filtered down somewhat. Catherine O’Hara has inexplicably crow barred herself into this race for her performance in “For Your Consideration,” while Shareeka Epps and Emma Thompson threaten to steal her thunder in “Half Nelson” and “Stranger than Fiction” respectively. “Little Miss Sunshine”’s Abigail Breslin has sadly been left out of the precursor season so far, but she’s not dead yet. I’m sure an Academy willing to vote her film into Best Picture contention would love to see her name in the mix as well.

That’s pretty much all the news that’s out there for consumption until the New Year rears its ugly head. I’m hoping Clint Mansell can sustain current momentum and secure a nomination for his beautiful “The Fountain” score. I’m also holding out hope that “Children of Men” can find support as the precursors march on. Surprisingly, the critics have been kind of chilly toward it in their awards, opting mostly for recognition for Emmanuel Lubezki’s phenomenal cinematography. The guilds will unleash soon enough, the real precursors of note. Perhaps the film can sustain more support in their ranks, but time will tell.

So, that looks to be all she wrote for this year of Oscar columns. We’ll pick it up on the other side in 2007 when the guilds and other various precursors join the party. Enjoy the charts. Please note predictions for Best Documentary – Feature have been added to the sidebar. And stay tuned later this afternoon as we begin the year in review with “’A Good Year’ Indeed: The Best Films of 2006.”

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

Previous Oscar Columns:
11/27/06 - "Switching Gears"
10/23/06 - "Lighten Up"
10/16/06 - "Starting To Get Serious"
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"