The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) has announced nominees for its 27th annual awards honoring excellence in cinematography.

The big misses were “Django Unchained” (Robert Richardson has a spotty history with the Society but often turns lemons to lemonade with the Academy’s cinematography branch), “The Master” (further indication of the film just not being well-liked by the industry, but come on) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (a longshot hopeful all along).

I’m also a little bit surprised that industry favorite Rodrigo Prieto didn’t find a spot for his underrated work in “Argo.” I still think he could be someone to watch for at the Oscars.

After the internet virtually exploded yesterday when Tom Hooper was recognized by the DGA, it will be fun to see how “Les Misérables” detractors react to their other pet grievance about the film, the cinematography, being recognized by, well, cinematographers. The film joins “Anna Karenina” (fresh off a BAFTA nomination) and expected players “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln” (a bit of a surprise as Janusz Kaminski is no longer an ASC member) and “Skyfall.”

The 27th annual ASC Awards will be held on February 10. The race for the Oscar would appear to be between “Life of Pi” and “Skyfall,” with the former having the edge. But the guild could go a different way. They often have.

Once again, check out the full list of nominees below, and as always, keep up with the season via The Circuit.

“Anna Karenina” (Seamus McGarvey)
“Les Misérables” (Danny Cohen)
“Life of Pi” (Claudio Miranda)
“Lincoln” (Janusz Kaminski)
“Skyfall” (Roger Deakins)

This is part two of our pre-nominations wrap-up. We’ll be looking at Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing. Click here for part one.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (Tech Support Analysis)

Oy…what a stacked category! Claudio Miranda is the only mortal lock for the visually extraordinary “Life of Pi.” Everyone agreed that living legend Roger Deakins made “Skyfall” look gorgeous and if anyone can get nominated for a Bond movie, it”s him. I wouldn”t call him a lock given the genre but I”d say a nomination is more likely than not.

After that, I”m banking on Robert Richardson (“Django Unchained”), Greig Fraser (“Zero Dark Thirty”) and Janusz Kaminski (“Lincoln”), in ascending order of likelihood, to round out the category for these likely Best Picture nominees with important visual narratives. They have disadvantages – Fraser”s newness, Richardson”s film”s late arrival, Kaminski”s film”s relative lack of showiness. But I feel their advantages – Fraser”s critics” awards, Richardson”s and Kaminski”s reputations – are greater. The visual palette of each film draws attention to itself in unique but appropriate ways. Richardson”s film is not assured of a Best Picture nomination and I”d rank him fifth.

But this leaves Mihai Malaware Jr. on the outside looking in for the gorgeous 65mm “The Master,” which I”ll be the first to admit doesn”t seem right. It just seems to me to be the sort of achievement that the critics adore but comes up short with Oscar. Just a hunch.

And what of Danny Cohen”s BAFTA-nominated take on “Les Misérables” (musicals usually do well here), Rodrigo Prieto”s narratively-tailored photography of “Argo” (though it feels like more of an ASC nominee to me — we’ll find out shortly), Wally Pfister”s work with Christopher Nolan on “The Dark Knight Rises” (their last four collaborations have earned nominations here) and Seamus McGarvey”s gorgeous lensing of “Anna Karenina” (also a BAFTA nominee)? Well, this is, as usual, a really tight race.

(UPDATE: With the ASC nominations, I’m opting for “Les Mis” over “Django.”)

Final Predictions:
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “The Master”)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (Tech Support Analysis)

The Costume Designers Guild is not announcing its nominees until next week, leaving us at a disadvantage in this category. Even so, Jacqueline Durran is a mortal lock for a nomination for “Anna Karenina.” The combination of respected costume designers, period settings and likely Best Picture nominations leads me to predict Jacqueline West (“Argo”), Sharen Davis (“Django Unchained”), Paco Delgado (“Les Misérables”) and Joanna Johnston (“Lincoln”) to round out the top five.

Though as I noted in my column about this category two months ago, costumers don’t necessarily care for a film”s overall reputation, and there are frequently nominees that are sole representatives from their films. Indeed, five respected titles, and four Best Picture nominees, would be highly unusual – nothing remotely similar has happened since 2002/2003. So perhaps Kym Barrett and Pierre-Yves Gayraud will score for their very noticeable and plentiful work on “Cloud Atlas?” Or will Manon Rasmussen be the beneficiary of this branch”s love for royalty and foreign films with “A Royal Affair?” More likely, however, I”d look to the “Snow White” films of the late Oscar winner Eiko Ishioka (“Mirror Mirror”) and AMPAS favorite Colleen Atwood (“Snow White and the Huntsman”).

Final Predictions:
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
(alt. “Snow White and the Huntsman”)

BEST FILM EDITING (Tech Support Analysis)

Like Best Costume Design, this is an especially difficult category to predict as the American Cinema Editors are unapologetically announcing their nominees after the Academy. Even so, this category tends to line up to a great extent with Best Picture. As such, I fully expect Best Picture frontrunners “Argo” (William Goldenberg), “Lincoln” (Michael Kahn) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor) to end up in the final five.

A big musical like “Les Misérables” (Chris Dickens) has all the makings of a nominee. Some have quibbled with the editing but given how well the film seems to be doing with the guilds, I”ll predict Dickens”s second nomination.

I”ll round out the category with Tim Squyres (“Life of Pi”), who seems to have everything going for him as well – Best Picture contender, cutting incredibly important to the considerable success of the film. But he has been a notable omission before (“Gosford Park,” “Sense & Sensibility”) as have Lee”s films (“Brokeback Mountain,” “Sense & Sensibility”), so I wouldn”t bet the farm on him.

An action-oriented Tarantino film such as “Django Unchained” (Fred Raskin) is difficult to pass up on. Though the still uncertain status of Tarantino”s film overall with AMPAS, and Raskin”s newcomer status, may prove an obstacle. Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers did an outstanding job setting the crisp pace of “Silver Linings Playbook,” though this category hasn”t been terribly kind to comedies over the past decade.

So if there is a surprise, I can”t bring myself to rule out Stuart Baird for “Skyfall.” I”m predicting at least four nominations for this film (Song, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing). But it fits the mold of a prestigious action film that finds a home here, especially with a veteran such as Baird on board.

Final Predictions:
“Argo”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “Skyfall”)

BEST SOUND EDITING (Tech Support Analysis)

Major summer blockbusters like “The Dark Knight Rises” and “The Avengers” are the types of films that usually end up as nominees in this category. I don”t entirely expect both of them to cross the finish line but I can”t decide which one is likelier. I”ve predicted both all year so I”m not going to stop now, even if the lack of precursor citations gives me serious pause.

I also suspect that “Django Unchained” and especially “Skyfall” will tickle the fancy of the sound branch, resulting in nominations in both sound categories. In fact, “Skyfall” is the only nominee in this category in which I have reasonable confidence, being a prestigious blockbuster with many artificially created noises, and having consistently hit the sound precursors.

Philip Stockton”s creation of a plethora of animal sounds on “Life of Pi” could result in a second consecutive nomination. He already has a BAFTA nod. But he only earned his first nomination last year (which he won, for “Hugo”) despite a LONG career, so maybe this branch just isn”t that into him?

Instead, I”d look to Paul N.J. Ottosson”s superb sound effects on “Zero Dark Thirty.” This mixer/editor even received a main “sound designed by” title card in the film”s credits. Now with a CAS nomination also to his credit, I”d actually rank him second in the category behind “Skyfall,” even with the BAFTA snub.

“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” has all the makings of a typical nominee in this category. Though only one “Lord of the Rings” movie scored here and, well, something”s gotta give.

“Les Misérables” has war sounds in addition to music so it ought not to be ruled out either. While I”m not convinced “Brave” is respected enough to return Pixar to glory in this category, it is still a huge step-up from “Cars 2,” so I might be wrong about that. I also wouldn”t rule out “Looper” getting a solo nomination for a highly respected film that doesn”t score anywhere else. Think “Drive.” Finally, if “Lincoln” somehow shows up here, it may be tying the record of “All About Eve” and “Titanic” at 14 nominations.

Final Predictions:
“The Avengers”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“Django Unchained”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”)

BEST SOUND MIXING (Tech Support Analysis)

Here is another stacked category. A big musical like “Les Misérables” seems destined for a nomination, as does a hugely successful action film with the prestige and crew of “Skyfall.” Of those two I”m quite confident, despite the Bond movies” surprisingly abysmal track record in this category. (“Diamonds are Forever” is the only nominee.)

Paul N.J. Ottosson”s work on “Zero Dark Thirty” is not always noticeable but when it is, it is effective. I encourage everyone to try closing their eyes while watching the raid – as brilliant as the photography is, the sound builds the tension impeccably. After the CAS nod, I feel I have to predict him, BAFTA snub aside.

Westerns usually do well in this category, so a big violent one like “Django Unchained” strikes me as a solid bet. It missed with the guild but that”s not the be all and end all, especially with a BAFTA nomination.

I”ll round out the category with “Lincoln” – as I said before, this crew is incredibly respected. Now they have a CAS nomination to their credit, and the film is likely heading to a dozen other nominations. As I predict a baker”s dozen, this is the weakest link. But I”m still betting this nod pushes the film to setting the record for nominations for a Spielberg movie. It actually struck me as more of a typical AMPAS than CAS nominee so I find that guild citation hard to ignore.

Given the success of all three “Lord of the Rings” movies, as well as its CAS and BAFTA nods, it may seem foolish to omit “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.” But it also is the first title in this saga not to be getting a Best Picture nomination, and there are other far more respected action movies in contention, such as “The Dark Knight Rises” and “The Avengers,” both with very respected crews on board. A summer blockbuster is always nominated. But which one? I”m splitting the difference and predicting neither, guessing they may cancel each other out, especially with “Prometheus” floating around, to say nothing of the dearth of precursor citations.

The other Best Picture nominee that is a major possibility is BAFTA nominee “Life of Pi.” But I feel it is simply behind the other contenders mentioned above, as well as the respected action films.

Finally, the title my “gut” tells me might sneak in here? “Flight,” with its sound crew anchored by the legendary Randy Thom and featured sound work during its plane crash that was nothing short of extraordinary. It may be only one scene, but I can remember another Robert Zemeckis movie (his movies do very well here) featuring a prominent plane crash that landed nominations only for Best Actor and Best Sound (as the category was then known): “Cast Away.” Just sayin”…

Final Predictions:
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”)

And there you have it. Tune is tomorrow to find out the nominees and my reactions to them! And check out my predictions in ALL of Oscar’s categories here.

What are YOUR predictions throughout the crafts categories? Have your say in the comments section below!

With the Oscar nominations at the front of everyone’s mind, the honorees at the Academy’s separate Sci-Tech Awards ceremony — known to casual viewers only via a video clip, usually presented by a bright-eyed ingenue — tend to get short shrift. So let’s take a moment to applaud veteran visual effects supervisor Bill Taylor, who will be receiving the Academy’s John A. Bonner Medal of Commendation. A member of the Academy’s Board of Governor, Taylor’s career (and AMPAS membership) spans over 40 years, taking in such such films as the original “The Thing,” “Glory,” “Cape Fear,” “The Fast and the Furious” and, most recently, “Lawless.” It’s his second special award from the Academy: his first, in 1981, was in recognition of his innovations in the area of aerial image optical printing. [AMPAS]

Here’s one precursor Naomi Watts has that her Best Actress Oscar rivals don’t: a Goya nomination, as Spanish production “The Impossible” landed 14 nods for the local awards. [Hollywood Reporter]

Joe Reid is done with predicting the 2012 Oscar nominees, swiftly moving on to the contenders for next year’s awards. I feel faint. [Film.com]

Steve Pond notes the abundance of past winners in the Best Director lineup — and even Ben Affleck is a former Oscar champ in another category. [The Wrap]

Glenn Whipp considers yesterday’s unpopular DGA nomination for Tom Hooper, and suggests “Les Mis” left voters “weak in the knees, not to mention their heads.” [LA Times]

While detractors pile on, I’m reminded of David Chen’s recent argument in favor of Hooper’s directorial decisions. [/Film]

Larry Rohter talks to Pablo Larrain, the Chilean director of the Oscar-shortlisted “No,” about his accidental Pinochet trilogy (the first two instalments of which, by the way, are as terrific as the last). [The Carpetbagger]

BAFTA executives have hailed this morning’s nominations as “terrific” and “Diverse.” That is as may be, but it’d be surprising if they said otherwise. [Screen]

While many are cheering the mostly female lineup for BAFTA’s Rising Star Award, Katy Brand thinks it’s beside the point — she’s more concerned with there being more female writers and directors to give them roles. [The Telegraph]  

Editors Chris Dickens (a former Oscar winner for “Slumdog Millionaire”) and Melanie Oliver discuss the process of assembling “Les Mis.” Will they make the Oscar cut? (Sorry.) [Below the Line]

As usual, BAFTA delivered a few surprises this morning. While nothing in their nominee list is as far off the Oscar radar as, say, “Drive”‘s hefty haul last year, they’ve muddled up the hierarchy a little among the leading awards players, as two of the three leading nominees found their directors frozen out — and not even in favor of certain underperforming British hopefuls, as might have been expected.

Some of the inclusions and exclusions have more bearing on the Oscar race than others. For example, before you make too much of Denzel Washington’s omission from the Best Actor lineup — and yes, “Flight” was eligible — remember that Washington has never been nominated by BAFTA. Across the pond, some films and artists simply translate better than others. With that in mind, let’s run through the contenders that gained the most from today’s nominations, and those that have reason to be disappointed. 

Ben Affleck and “Argo”: If you’re merely totting up the numbers, “Argo” doesn’t look like one of the morning’s big winners — seven nominations is respectable, but still puts in fourth place among the Best Film nominees. But look closer, and consider that it’s not a lavish technical showcase, and it’s clear that Ben Affleck’s well-liked thriller actually over-performed — indeed, BAFTA’s sizeable actors’ branch liked it so much they handed Affleck his first major Best Actor nod of the season. Furthermore, along with “Zero Dark Thirty,” it’s the only Best Film nominee to score with the directing, writing, acting and technical branches. It could well be the one to beat. 

“Life of Pi”: Along with “Argo,” the film that arguably gained the most from this morning’s announcement was Ang Lee’s seafaring fantasy. It may have had a slow start to the season, with an oddly tentative campaign by Fox, but “Pi” has rallied impressively, scoring a DGA nod yesterday and now landing nine BAFTA nods, plus a Rising Star bid for Suraj Sharma. The film has been a big holiday hit with UK audiences, and unlike fellow nomination leaders “Lincoln” and “Les Mis,” it nabbed a nomination for its director too. Could it come from behind and take Best Film? Yes.

“Amour”: Perhaps more than any other film, Michael Haneke’s critically beloved French-language drama felt the benefits of the new BAFTA voting system, whereby nominees are determined by individual branches rather than the general membership — it seems less likely that BAFTA as a whole would have included Haneke in the Best Director category, where he edged out Steven Spielberg and/or Tom Hooper, while Emmanuelle Riva is a similarly discerning pick for Best Actress. With four top nominations, the arthouse underdog is in great shape to surprise a lot of people when the Academy announces its nominees tomorrow.

“Beasts of the Southern Wild”: Can you be a winner with just one nomination? In this case, yes. Benh Zeitlin’s rough-and-ready Southern tale was never likely to score in a big way with the British crowd, having generated little chatter when it opened here back in the autumn, so landing a writing nomination ahead of such big-ticket titles as “Skyfall,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” and “Les Mis,” is an encouraging indication of its crossover appeal — and seemingly firms up the film’s Oscar slot in that category after its WGA ineligibility. It’s a further indication of the new BAFTA voting system having its desired effect.

“Django Unchained”: A qualified win, this, since Quentin Tarantino’s bloody Sou’western earned five nominations, including Best Director, but not one for Best Film — “Inglourious Basterds” suffered a similar fate three years ago. But taking into account how late the film screened for most BAFTA members, it performed well above expectations — with a couple more weeks, it could even have wrangled a nod for the top prize. With more slots up for grabs, this could bode well for a place in Oscar’s Best Picture lineup.

Bradley Cooper: “Silver Linings Playbook” has been greeted with muted enthusiasm by British critics and audiences alike — even the UK marketing seemed unsure of what to do with the film’s US-centric title, burying the “playbook” in microscopic type — so its misses for Best Film and Best Director were easily seen coming. While Jennifer Lawrence always had enough heat to land a nomination, Robert De Niro did not — so the fact that Bradley Cooper managed to score in a competitive Best Actor lineup is notable, and suggests an Oscar nomination for the leading man is all but cemented. 

“Anna Karenina”: After underwhelming critics and fizzling at the box office way back in September, Joe Wright’s eccentric Tolstoy adaptation didn’t seem likely to be warmly embraced beyond BAFTA’s technical branches. Still, it exercised some damage control today with six nods. Five of them are in below-the-line categories, which isn’t particularly surprising, but nabbing that Best British Film nomination — ahead of far more broadly acclaimed independent care — counts as a significant coup. This will probably be the high point of the season for a film once fancied as a juggernaut, but it’ll take what it can get.  

Meanwhile, these are the films and individuals less likely to be smiling this morning: 

Tom Hooper: Hooper was flying high yesterday with a semi-surprising DGA nod, but as I anticipated, the Oscar-winning British director’s countrymen brought him crashing down to earth: his polarizing directorial choices may have brought “Les Misérables” nine nominations, but Best Director was not among them. (It may or may not be worth noting that, unlike the Academy, BAFTA didn’t hand him their award for “The King’s Speech.”) Put it down to a competitive category, peer skepticism over Hooper’s actual work or his slightly “difficult” reputation within the industry, but he remains a major question mark going into tomorrow’s Oscar nominations. 

Steven Spielberg: Hooper can at least take comfort in the fact that he’s in august company on the sidelines. While the Brit’s omission for the Best Director lineup could be seen coming, Spielberg’s is considerably more surprising — all the more so considering that “Lincoln” wound up as the morning’s top nominee, an anomaly that has never before occurred since the BAFTAs became an Oscar precursor. I had anticipated that one of the more American-flavored political dramas in the lineup could suffer a setback, and here it is: only one film (“Educating Rita” in 1983) has ever managed to take the top BAFTA without a nod for its director.  

“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”: Earlier in the year, this genteel Britcom looked a likely BAFTA favorite, given its gangbusters box office and lineup of beloved veteran faces. But while “Skyfall” had obviously stolen some of its home-crowd thunder, it still looked likely to receive a scattering of compensatory nods. It was not to be, as the film scored a single (virtually obligatory) nomination for Best British Film. Judi Dench, usually nominated by BAFTA for the mere feat of showing up in a film, had to be content with a supporting nod for “Skyfall” — but what’s really stunning is that SAG nominee (and five-time BAFTA winner) didn’t join her in that category. The odds now favor the Academy giving the film even fewer nominations tomorrow morning.

“Skyfall”: Okay, so I missed big on this one. I had thought the combination of critical acclaim and record-breaking box office (it’s now the all-time highest grosser in the UK) would be enough to secure James Bond his first Best Film BAFTA nod, and a leading tally overall. As it stands, Sam Mendes’s classy 007 outing secured eight nominations — a good showing for a franchise effort, but a disappointment considering the hype. It didn’t even register as strongly as 2006’s “Casino Royale,” which managed nine nominations including Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. This limited support from the British bloc puts a slight dampener on the film’s chances of a Best Picture nod tomorrow, though with more slots to play with, all is not lost.

British independents: The BAFTAs inevitably skew more mainstream than the British Independent Film Awards earlier in the season, but even so, the relative absence of acclaimed local independent fare on the nominee list is striking. A few years ago, left-field titles like “Berberian Sound Studio” and “Sightseers” would have featured at least in the Best British Film lineup, while BIFA winner Andrea Riseborough might have made the Best Actress cut for “Shadow Dancer” — here, they’re nowhere to be seen, ditched for the bigger but less beloved likes of “Anna Karenina” and “Seven Psychopaths.” Even the Carl Foreman Award (for first-time writers, directors and producers) was slightly less indie-friendly than usual, citing “The Muppets” director James Bobin over “Sightseers” scribes Alice Oram and Steve Lowe, and festival favorite Sally El Hosaini for “My Brother the Devil.” 

“Lincoln” led this morning’s BAFTA nominations with 10 mentions, followed closely by “Life of Pi” and “”Les Misérables” with nine each — but in something of twist, only one of those field-leading Best Film nominees managed an accompanying Best Director nomination, as Steven Spielberg and Tom Hooper, both nominated yesterday by the DGA, were frozen out by the British Academy. Less compromised success was enjoyed by “Argo,” with seven nominations — indeed, BAFTA took such a shine to Ben Affleck’s film that they became the first group to nominate him for Best Actor too.

“Skyfall,” the highest-grossing film in UK box-office history managed eight nominations, including ones for Judi Dench and Javier Bardem — but Best Film, perhaps surprisingly, was not among them. Meanwhile, the year’s other home-grown box office sensation, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” earned a solitary nomination in the Best British Film category, with even BAFTA darling Maggie Smith left on the sidelines. Ouch. Full list of nominees after the jump.   

Best Film
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best British Film
“Anna Karenina”
“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Les Misérables”
“Seven Psychopaths”
“Skyfall”

Best Director
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Quentin Tarantino, “Django Unchained”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actor
Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren, “Hitchcock”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Javier Bardem, “Skyfall”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Judi Dench, “Skyfall”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

Best Original Screenplay
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“The Master”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi” 
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour”
“Headhunters”
“The Hunt”
“The Intouchables”
“Rust and Bone”

Best Documentary
“The Imposter”
“Marley”
“McCullin”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
“West of Memphis”

Best Animated Film
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”

Best Cinematography
“Anna Karenina”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Costume Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Great Expectations”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

Best Film Editing
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Makeup & Hair
“Anna Karenina”
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”

Best Original Music
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”

Best Sound 
“Django Unchained”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Visual Effects
“The Avengers”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Prometheus”

Best Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Thina Garavi (writer/director), “I Am Nasrine”
Bart Layton (writer) and Dimitri Doganis (producer), “The Imposter”
David Morris (director) and Jacqui Morris (director/producer), “McCullin”
James Bobin (director), “The Muppets”
Dexter Fletcher (writer/director) and Danny King (writer), “Wild Bill”

Best Short Film
“The Curse”
“Good Night”
“Swimmer”
“Tumult”
“The Voorman Problem”

Best Short Animation
“Here to Fall”
“I’m Fine Thanks”
“The Making of Longbird”

Rising Star Award (previously announced)
Elizabeth Olsen
Andrea Riseborough
Suraj Sharma
Juno Temple
Alicia Vikander

When the Academy announced it was shifting its nomination date forward, nowhere else was the ‘Simon says’ effect more blatantly evident than in BAFTA’s decision to move theirs up a week or so — squeezing in just one day before the Oscar nominations call time on the first stage of the season. 

Since 2000, when the British Academy rearranged their calendar to precede their American counterpart, the BAFTAs have prided themselves on their status as the last major precursor before the Oscars — one that has, on several occasions, foretold late-breaking shifts in momentum.

Alan Arkin, Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton are among the come-from-behind victors who picked up the BAFTA en route to the Oscar. The nominations, even, can offer subtle clues to those willing to look for them: in 2008, for example, they foreshadowed the displacement of “The Dark Knight” by “The Reader,” while in 2004, eventual Oscar nominee Alan Alda han’t shown up anywhere for “The Aviator” until BAFTA gave him the nod.

Of course, the Brits can just as often be off on their own beam, sometimes with gratifyingly fresh results — “Drive” and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” were both Best Film nominees — and sometimes with dubiously parochial ones. (The less said about Judi Dench’s nomination for “My Week With Marilyn” last year, the better.) 

Tomorrow’s nominations look likely to feature a bit of both — expect a strong showing for many of the usual Oscar suspects, but don’t be too shocked if certain heavyweight contenders lose out to more left-field and/or home-grown favorites. (Remember that Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo” was among the films booted out of the top category by “Drive” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” last year.)

This year, the BAFTA nominations are a less predictable business than usual — not least because, in a major shake-up of the voting system, they’ve done away with those tell-tale category longlists they used to reveal beforehand. (The voting changes, incidentally, are another respect in which BAFTA has moved closer to the Oscar template: nominees are now branch-determined, with the entire membership voting on the winners, where it used to be the other way round.) Here are five possibilities to look out for tomorrow morning.

A strong showing for “Skyfall”: “Skyfall” may be a hit in the US, but in its home country, it’s something more than that — the 23rd James Bond adventure is the highest-grossing film of all time in the UK, recently becoming the first ever to pass the £100 million mark. Last week’s PGA nomination for the film raised the possibility of major-category Oscar contention, but a major BAFTA haul seems all but guaranteed for a local production that has won over critics and audiences. After all, if “Casino Royale” could get a healthy smattering of nominations six years ago, including Best Actor, Adapted Screenplay and British Film; “Skyfall” should easily go one better, with Best Film, multiple acting nods (including one for perennial BAFTA darling Judi Dench) and across-the-board tech citations all within reach. (It helps that BAFTA, despite their slightly genteel reputation, is more genre-friendly than the US Academy.) It could even wind up as the year’s most-nominated film. Ironically, one nod it can’t get is one of its strongest Oscar plays: the BAFTAs have no Best Original Song award. Anyway, watch it fly.

“Best Exotic” keeps smiling: Until “Skyfall” came along, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” was the biggest British success story of the year. Now, the crowd-pleasing achievements of the cheery geriatric comedy may pale slightly in comparison to James Bond’s record-busting run, but I don’t expect this profitable independent production to go unappreciated by BAFTA, which has a history of recognising upbeat Britcoms (“The Full Monty,” “Four Weddings and a Funeral”) and a sentimental attachment to the veteran-studded “Best Exotic” ensemble, who boast 18 BAFTAs and over 50 career nominations between them. A few months ago, when the film earned a surprising stack of British Independent Film Award nominations, I’d have put money on a Best Film nod. Now, it’s possible “Skyfall” has now stolen too much of its home-crowd thunder for that to happen, but I’m betting on ample compensation: performance nods for Judi Dench (again), Maggie Smith and even Tom Wilkinson, possibly an adapted screenplay nomination and certainly one for Best British Film.

“Les Mis” sings again: Our third major British contender doesn’t necessarily feel that British, given the French source material, the international cast and the global brand that the blockbuster musical has now become. But there’s a lot of potential BAFTA attachment to “Les Miserables,” and not just because of the nationality of its director and production company: the stage production, still going strong in London’s West End 27 years after making its English-translated debut there, feels very much a local cultural property, whatever its setting. Will that translate into frontrunner status? The film hasn’t opened in the UK yet, which means the heated critical conversation around it hasn’t sparked in quite the same way it has across the pond — though it doesn’t yet have any box-office momentum. Expect a strong haul of nominations — though I wouldn’t be shocked if Tom Hooper (who lost the BAFTA two years ago to David Fincher, and isn’t broadly loved in the local industry) misses the cut.

Uncertain prospects for US political dramas: As a rule, BAFTA voters generally tune into across-the-pond buzz, even with films that are bigger news in the US than in the UK. (Last year, “The Help” scored a Best Film nod, despite sneering reviews and underwhelming box office.) But they can let it be known when they aren’t as impressed as US voters by a major American contender: “Milk” and “The Descendants,” for example, missed Best Director nods, while “Hugo” and “Inglourious Basterds” scored in multiple categories — except Best Film. With that in mind, I wonder if “Lincoln” and/or “Zero Dark Thirty,” neither of which has opened in the UK yet, might receive fewer nominations than they will at the Oscars, given the comparative lack of media attention lavished on their political resonances. (The same could go for “Django Unchained,” though that’s in a similarly precarious spot with the Academy too.) That’s not to say they’ll be shut out of key BAFTA races, but don’t expect quite the same level of noise around them. 

Forging the French connection: BAFTA has long been receptive to the cinema of their over-the-Channel cousins, and that’s not counting “The Artist”: in recent years, “Amelie” was a Best Film nominee, “I’ve Loved You So Long” scored multiple nominations and “La Vie en Rose” four wins, while Audrey Tautou snagged an unlikely Best Actress nod three years ago for “Coco Before Chanel.” So it’ll be interesting to see how accommodating the Brits are in a year heavy on Gallic crossover fare. As in the US, “The Intouchables” (here more logically dubbed “Untouchable”) stands comfortably as the year’s top-grossing foreign-language film, so it could well feature outside the ghetto categories. “Rust and Bone,” meanwhile, has been a sizable arthouse hit in UK, so might find BAFTA more welcoming than the Academy — particularly given that Jacques Audiard is a two-time winner. The Brits haven’t been quite as keen on Michael Haneke over the years, but “Amour” is perhaps his most universally embraced work, so I’m curious to see how strongly it registers. Whatever the films’ major-category fortunes, expect a very French-flavored Best Foreign Language Film category.

With that, my predictions for BAFTA nominations:

Best Film
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best British Film
“Berberian Sound Studio”
“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“The Imposter”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Director
Ben Affleck, “Argo”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Sam Mendes, “Skyfall”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actor
Daniel Craig, “Skyfall”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”
Jean-Louis Trintignant, “Amour” 

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard, “Rust and Bone”
Judi Dench, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Javier Bardem, “Skyfall”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Eddie Redmayne, “Les Misérables”
Tom Wilkinson, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Master”
Judi Dench, “Skyfall”
Sally Field, “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”
Maggie Smith, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

Best Original Screenplay
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“The Intouchables”
“The Master”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Skyfall”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour”
“Headhunters”
“The Intouchables”
“The Kid With a Bike”
“Rust and Bone”

Best Documentary
“The Imposter”
“Marley”
“Searching for Sugar Man”

Best Animated Film
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“The Pirates! In an Adventure With Scientists!”

Best Cinematography
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“The Master”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Life of Pi”
“The Master”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Costume Design
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”

Best Film Editing
“Argo”
“The Imposter”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Makeup & Hair
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Lincoln”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Music
“Anna Karenina”
“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Life of Pi”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”

Best Sound 
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Les Misérables”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Les Misérables”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”

It’s been one of the most competitive Oscar seasons in recent history, and that competition has also spread to the Best Director category. Five lucky helmers made it through with the Directors Guild today, but left off the list were talented craftsmen like Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“The Master”), Wes Anderson (“Moonrise Kingdom”) and Michael Haneke (“Amour”), as well as shepherds of awards season successes such as David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) and Sam Mendes (“Skyfall”). A very good year indeed.

All of this morning’s nominees have released statements reacting to their good fortune today. The work ranges from CIA thrillers to journo-cinema, Presidential epics to bombastic musicals, and a little 3D razzle dazzle thrown in for good measure. Read what they all had to say below.

The 65th annual DGA Awards will be held in Hollywood on February 2, 2013.

Ben Affleck, “Argo”:

“I am extremely proud and humbled to receive my first DGA nomination for ‘Argo.’ On behalf of the entire directing team, I want to thank the Directors Guild for this tremendous honor. I also want to express my appreciation to all of my enormously talented colleagues on both sides of the camera. ‘Argo’ is the result of all our work.”

Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”:

“I couldn’t be more humbled to be recognized this way by my peers at the DGA. It’s so gratifying and encouraging to have the support from those who themselves know and experience the challenges as well as the triumphs of making films. I am so grateful to the members of the DGA and for the kind words and support from Taylor Hackford when I received the call.”

Tom Hooper, “Les Misérables”:

“I’m honored to be nominated by the Directors Guild and truly humbled to be in the company of Steven, Kathryn, Ang and Ben. It has been a truly extraordinary year for cinema, and it is encouraging that films like theirs have been met not only with acclaim but popular success. It was the dream of so many to bring ‘Les Misérables’ to the screen, and I am but one of those who shared in that. I am deeply appreciative, and share this recognition with my wonderful directorial team and the staggeringly talented group of filmmakers, craftspeople and actors who all gave their hearts and souls to this film.”

Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”:

“I am proud and humbled to be receiving this nomination from my guild. It means so much to be recognized by my peers and I am truly grateful for this honor. ‘Life of Pi’ was a true collaboration that involved gifted artists both in front of and behind the camera. I share this nomination with every  person that I had the good fortune to work with on this film.”

Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”:

“The privilege of making ‘Lincoln,’ combined with this absolutely tremendous recognition from my peers, is humbling.  I thank everyone for including me on this short list of extremely unique and gifted filmmakers.”

Back and forth between “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” as the former has claimed another Best Picture prize, this time from the Denver Film Critics Society. Ben Affleck also took Best Director, while the acting categories followed the template: Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Anne Hathaway. Check out the full list of winners below and keep track of it all via The Circuit.

Best Film
“Argo”

Best Director
Ben Affleck, “Argo”

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Original Screenplay
“Moonrise Kingdom”

Best Animated Feature
“ParaNorman”

Best Non-English Language Feature
“Amour”

Best Documentary Feature
“Jiro Dreams of Sushi”

Best Original Score
“The Dark Knight Rises”

Best Original Song
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”

With 10 nominations to date, Steven Spielberg came into today's Directors Guild of America (DGA) announcement as the most honored director in the guild's history. Well, make it 11, as the “Lincoln” director predictably made it one more with a notice for his $144 million-grossing (and climbing) epic.

Joining him on the list, and equally expected, were Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow for their dueling CIA thrillers “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” respectively, while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”) and Tom Hooper (“Les Misérables”) filled out the list.

Missing the cut were David O. Russell for “Silver Linings Playbook,” as well as Quentin Tarantino for “Django Unchained.” The latter only joined the guild this year, though that didn't stopped him from receiving DGA nominations for “Pulp Fiction” and “Inglourious Basterds” as a non-member in the past. His miss here could be reflective of the fact that many didn't see the film in time (screeners did not go to the guild, as I erroneously conveyed otherwise on last week's podcast).

This pretty much just tells us five of the six strongest contenders in the race (the sixth being “Silver Linings Playbook”), or in other words, nothing we don't already know. Do with it as you will for your Oscar predictions.

Check out the full list of feature nominees below. Documentary nominations will be announced January 14. The 65th annual DGA Awards will be held on February 2.

Ben Affleck, “Argo
Tom Hooper, “Les Misérables”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Remember to keep up with all of the 2012-2013 film awards season's ups and downs via The Circuit.

So here we go. After several months of previewing the contenders, it”s time to predict the nominees for the 85th Annual Academy Awards in the crafts categories.

Today, I’ll analyze Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Production Design and Best Visual Effects. Tomorrow, I’ll turn to Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing.

Let’s dig in…

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (Tech Support Analysis)

Soon-to-be Best Picture nominees “Les Misérables” and especially “Lincoln” had to meticulously recreate the 19th Century in painstaking detail. I expect them to be in the final three, especially given the aging in “Les Mis” and the transformative work in “Lincoln.”

The plentiful makeup in “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” would seem most likely to complete the trio, especially considering both “Lord of the Rings” movies to make the bake-off lists made the final cut. Creating dwarves, elves and hobbits, to say nothing of battle wounds, required considerable work. But there is a lot more CGI this time around, and this category normally has a notable omission.

Given the potential for surprises, none of the finalists making it would floor me, from “Hitchock””s recreation of Old Hollywood to “Looper””s transformation of one actor to another and “Snow White and the Huntsman””s beauty makeup and battle wounds.

Most likely, however, the giddily outlandish work of Rick Baker on “Men in Black 3” will find a home. That’s what I expect, anyway, so God dammit, I”ll predict it!

Final Predictions:
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Men in Black 3”
(alt. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”)

BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE (Tech Support Analysis)

A few weeks ago, I said I felt John Williams (“Lincoln”) was locked in this category with Alexandre Desplat (“Argo”), Mychael Danna (“Life of Pi”) and Dario Marianelli (“Anna Karenina”) looking good. I still feel that way. Williams is Williams, scoring the likely nominations leader. Enough said. While Desplat could suffer from drawing split attention, Danna could encounter some newbie shyness and Marianelli must battle the divisive nature of his film, I feel the three of them will each score a nomination due to some combination of support for their films. Each have noticeable scores with exotic elements, precursor attention and respect for the composers.

I”m guessing Desplat gets pulled along with “Zero Dark Thirty” to become a double-nominee for his subtle but suspense-building work on Kathryn Bigelow”s feature. Remember “The Hurt Locker””s somewhat surprising nomination here. I also feel a double nomination for Desplat is inevitable one of these years, so why not this one?

I”ll admit, however, that this prediction is somewhat of a cop-out given that I can”t decide which of the integral scores by yet-to-be-nominated composers such as Jonny Greenwood (“The Master”), Reinhold Heil & Johnny Klinek (“Cloud Atlas”) or Benh Zeitlin & Dan Romer (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) has the best chance. The precursors have sent very mixed messages on these films, and it”s difficult for newcomers to break into this category.

I should add that given Thomas Newman”s history in pulling some surprising nominations, I wouldn”t dismiss “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.”

Final Predictions:
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “The Master”)

BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG (Tech Support Analysis)

Always the most difficult category to predict, perhaps Best Original Song will be less so this year given the recent rule changes? Hard to say.

Adele”s haunting “Skyfall” should (not that that always matters) become the first Bond title since “For Your Eyes Only” to find a home here – both the film and tune are more AMPAS-friendly than the ditties that have been snubbed in the meantime. The narrative-friendly placement of “Suddenly” in “Les Misérables” results in it sitting pretty as well, especially as it is a way to acknowledge these giants of composing. And Pixar films have a good track record here, so I”d give the edge to “Learn Me Right” over “Touch the Sky” from “Brave” (though I wouldn”t rule out the latter).

After those three, I find the category becomes tricky, though the idea of giving Ennio Morricone & Elisa a nomination for “Ancora Qui” from “Django Unchained” strikes me as irresistible and I”m guessing AMPAS will feel the same way. But Morricone is not the only vet the branch has the opportunity to cite, as Paul Williams contributed “Still Alive” to the documentary “Paul Williams Still Alive.” It would seem a good way to round out the final five (assuming there is a final five), but Williams has had an even longer time away from a nomination than Morricone. And did the film resonate with anyone?

The chance to go for a reliable old star such as Dolly Parton (“From Here to the Moon and Back” from “Joyful Noise”) or a reliable modern star such as Keith Urban (“For You” from “Act of Valor”) could be AMPAS”s cup of tea. Most likely, however, is the prominent “Pi”s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi.” I do have reservations about its failure to garner precursor citations despite prominent placement in a very prominent film. Of course, I realize the same could be said about “Ancora Qui,” but “Pi”s Lullaby” doesn”t have Morricone on board.

Final Predictions:
“Learn Me Right” from “Brave”
“Ancora Qui” from “Django Unchained”
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
(alt. “Still Alive” from “Paul Williams Still Alive”)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (Tech Support Analysis)

The Art Directors Guild nominated 15 titles between period, fantasy and contemporary productions, so its omissions are more telling than its nominees. “Anna Karenina,” “Les Misérables” and to a lesser extent “Lincoln” all strike me as locks for nods. Given the film”s reception from critics and audiences, and the opportunity to honor the late J. Michael Riva, I”d bank on “Django Unchained” showing up here as well. That said, the reliance on exteriors, as well as the difficulties in handicapping Tarantino movies with Oscar (none have been nominated in this category) mean it is far from a lock. All four titles were among the guild nominees in the period category.

There is usually a fantasy title nominated so I”d look to “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” to complete the quintet. But it”s no lock, and I would say the fantastical (if not exactly “fantasy”) “Life of Pi” is breathing down its neck.

Sharon Seymour”s design of “Argo” was meticulous, but I can”t help but feel it”s too subtle to score with so much showiness around. The guild nomination is a boon, however. “Cloud Atlas” and “The Master” are sorely deserving of placements here but the former seems to be poised to survive in few categories and I”m doubtful this will be first among them, while Jack Fisk (behind the former) has only been nominated once in his career despite doing great work for decades. The lack of a guild nomination is especially troubling.

Final Predictions:
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
(alt. “Life of Pi”)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (Tech Support Analysis)

“Life of Pi,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” and “The Avengers” all have respected visual effects crews, prestige and/or box office, not to mention very noticeable effects. I”d be very surprised if any of the three, which led the way among the nominees of the Visual Effects Society, came up short.

“The Dark Knight Rises” has effects slightly more subtle but still very respectable, in a respected film, from a respected crew. I”d say it”s just behind the three leading titles. And I think “Cloud Atlas” which has the “most” visual effects of almost any film of 2012, is best poised to complete the quintet. Though the divisive nature of the film, and the quibbling with some of the work, could pose a problem.

“Prometheus” would be my alternate – the “Alien” series has done very well here and it was cited a few times by the Society. And anomination for Ridley Scott”s movie would result in a variance with the BFCA nominees. But I”m predicting a 5/5 matchup.

“Skyfall,” finally, may be respected but the effects seem too subtle, while “John Carter” has a plethora of effects but seems too floppy. “The Amazing Spider-Man” and “Snow White and the Huntsman” seem too…underwhelming.

Final Predictions:
“The Avengers”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
(alt. “Prometheus”)

That rounds us out today. Check back tomorrow for the conclusion and my full list of predictions in all categories!

No surprise here: “Zero Dark Thirty,” which led the nominations for the Alliance of Women Film Journalists Awards last month, cleaned up when it came to winners. With eight awards, it won almost every category in which it was cited, with Kathryn Bigelow taking prizes for both Best Director and, obviously enough, Best Woman Director. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” took a trio of prizes while, among the groups quirkier categories, the Adam Sandler vehicle “That’s My Boy” won the Hall of Shame award for misogynistic content. Full list of winners below, with everything else at The Circuit.

Best Picture: “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, “Lincoln”

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, “Argo”

Best Non-English-Language Film: “Amour”

Best Documentary: “Searching For Sugar Man”

Best Animated Film: “ParaNorman”

Best Ensemble Cast: “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, “Life of Pi”

Best Editing: William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Film Music or Score: Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Best Woman Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Woman Screenwriter: Lucy Alibar (with Benh Zeitlin), “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Best Breakthrough Performance: Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Kick-Ass Award For Best Female Action Star: Jennifer Lawrence, “The Hunger Games”

Best Animated Female: Merida (Kelly Macdonald), “Brave”

Actress Defying Age and Ageism: Judi Dench, “Skyfall”

AWFJ Award for Humanitarian Activism: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Outstanding Achievement By A Woman In The Film Industry: Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady (“Detropia”), Lauren Greenfield (“Queen of Versailles”), Alison Klayman (“Ai Weiwei Never Sorry”) and Sarah Burns (“The Central Park Five”)

AWFJ Hall Of Shame Award: Sean Anders, “That”s My Boy”

Actress Most in Need Of A New Agent: (tie) Katherine Heigl, “One For The Money”; Reese Witherspoon, “This Means War”

Movie You Wanted To Love But Just Couldn”t: “Anna Karenina”

Unforgettable Moment: (tie) Anne Hathaway singing “I Dreamed A Dream” in “Les Miserables”; Jessica Chastain saying, “I”m the mother…” in “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Depiction Of Nudity, Sexuality, or Seduction: Helen Hunt and John Hawkes, “The Sessions”

Sequel or Remake That Shouldn”t Have Been Made: (tie) ”Red Dawn” and “Total Recall”

Most Egregious Age Difference Between The Leading Man and The Love Interest: Denzel Washington and Kelly Reilly…and Nadine Velazquez – “Flight”

UPDATE (1/9 – 3:18am ET): Poor Matthew McConaughey looks so lonely over there now that there isn’t a prediction to go along with the photo. Alas, the BAFTA nominations tonight have steered me this way and that. Of course “Skyfall” was going to go over big there, but that along with the SAG nod for Javier Bardem give me enough to go ahead and spring for him instead. Sorry, Matty.

I do, however, think BAFTA may have gone for “Django Unchained” more than the Academy did, but we’ll see if that’s true. Nevertheless, I’ve gone ahead and added “Django” to my Best Picture predictions (it was already at #10), bringing it to a full set of 10. Screw it. I’ve been thinking there’s enough passion to go around to afford as much, but, well, we’ll see. A few other tweaks and whatnot throughout. All this will be more set in stone when our final predictions gallery goes up Wednesday morning. Look for that for the final word.

EARLIER: So, these are pretty much finalized. I don’t know that the DGA will add or subtract much, regardless of their choices. It’s a funky season.

First question sure to come: Why “The Intouchables?” When you’re the first screener out of the gate, you’re seen early and, sometimes, often. And the film has stuck with a lot of members. While others like “Django Unchained” and “The Impossible” and even, though I’m still sticking with it, “Amour,” are just hoping to be seen in the home stretch, films like “Skyfall” and “Flight” and, indeed, “The Intouchables” have built up some fans along with frontrunners like “Argo” and “Lincoln.” That will either translate or it won’t, but I don’t mind stepping out onto a few limbs this year. It’s a funky season.

That fifth slot in Best Supporting Actor? Yeah, it might just go to Javier Bardem, who managed the SAG nomination for a film that has the British voting block behind it (as does “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”) and is well-liked. It could go to one of the “Django Unchained” hopefuls, though they seem in danger of canceling each other out. So why not go on a wing and a prayer with Matthew McConaughey in “Magic Mike?” He picked up some key critics awards at the right time, just after hitting the press trail, rail thin, showing physical dedication to his next film. And he’s likable. Sure, I’ll make that bet. It’s a funky season.

Speaking of “The Impossible,” Naomi Watts has some wind in her sails with well-publicized endorsements and a movie in theaters, making them tear up. But some of those tears could well be of the “I really wish I had seen this before I voted” variety. So while two foreign actresses nominated feels like a stretch, I’ll put some faith in Emmanuelle Riva and respect for her work in “Amour.” She has actresses like Nicole Kidman halting their own Q&As to espouse the merits of the performance. It’s a funky season.

And not to bury the lead a bit, but if two foreign performances getting in is weird, then two foreign films getting in for Best Picture is REALLY weird. So if the “Amour”/”The Intouchables” thing pans out when no foreign film has yet capitalized on the expanded Best Picture category, that’s sure to be a story, if not THE story of the nominations. And it would instantly qualify the move to five-plus a success, if films like “Up,” “Toy Story 3” and “District 9,” among others, haven’t done that already. So I don’t mind making that reach. It’s a funky year.

Across the board, there could just be surprise after surprise. And not in a left field kind of way, but simply because this is a season like no other. A squeezed timeline, voting snafus that are repressing voter turnout, a competitive slate producing passion across a wide spectrum and studios dominating over indies and dependents for a change make it a perfect storm of…something. I don’t know what. It’s kind of exciting. So I don’t care how wrong I end up being at the end of the day because the simple fact that some of this is even on the table is pretty cool.

We’ll see what the DGA and ASC have to say over the next two days. ACE, CDG and MPSE will all wait until after the nominations. So if the directors and/or the cinematographers do anything to make me rethink this or that, I’ll make note of it in this space. But for now, I’m semi-finished with this craziness. Let the chips fall where they may.

We’ll have a predictions-related collective up some time Wednesday featuring all of our choices. In the meantime, what are YOU predicting? Have your say in the comments section below.

Check out my updated predictions HERE and, as always, see how Guy Lodge, Greg Ellwood and I collectively think the season will turn out at THE CONTENDERS.

Every year there are discrepancies between guild/industry nominations and their Academy counterparts. And the Cinema Audio Society is no exception. Just last year, “Hanna,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides” and “Super 8” all yielded to “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” and “War Horse” with the Academy. And only twice in the Society’s history have their nods and the sound branch’s nominees for Best Sound Mixing (or Best Sound, as the category used to be called) matched up.

This year? Well, this year, who knows? It’s a strange season in that a number of people have missed a number of movies. So something like “Django Unchained” misses here. Then again, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” did find a place. The two perceived frontrunners in the category, “Les Misérables” and “Skyfall,” are there, but missing are summer blockbusters like “The Avengers” (which seemed all systems go for Oscar), “The Dark Knight Rises” (no surprise given the criticisms) and “Prometheus” (which boasts a heck of a track).

Let’s just get the nominees out of the way first. Those competing in the live action category are:

“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

That’s right. “Live action,” because this year, the Society has opted to split off animated films for the first time ever. The nominees there are:

“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“The Lorax”
“Rise of the Guardians”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

I don’t know if any of those can get in with Oscar, but it would be great to see “Wreck-It Ralph” find some room.

So anyway, first off, “Zero Dark Thirty” placing here makes it the only film to have been recognized by each of the industry groups that have announced nominees so far: the Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild, Producers Guild, Visual Effects Society and Cinema Audio Society. We’ll see if that streak continues later this afternoon with the Directors Guild nominations.

As for Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars, just take a stab at picking which films you think will drop out. My guess is “The Hobbit” and maybe “Lincoln,” too. Replaced by “Django Unchained” and perhaps “The Avengers.” Or maybe “Argo” can make good and slide in, despite missing here. It’s happened for eventual Best Picture nominees “War Horse,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Gangs of New York” in recent years.

We’ll know in two days’ time. For now, keep track of all this craziness via The Circuit.

In these final heated days before the Oscar nominations, even the most minor kerfuffle can become a story, and so it’s been with the Academy’s supposedearly announcement a few days ago of one nominee: “Django Unchained” costume designer Sharen Davis. A test page announcing Davis’s third nomination was accidentally published on the Academy’s official site a few days ago. Scott Feinberg was among those pointing out that the “leak” can’t have been legit, given that votes were still being counted, and was indeed nothing more than a randomly chosen example to test the format, but that hasn’t stopped the story from spreading. In any case, Davis’s nod for “Django”‘s dynamic duds already looked a pretty sure thing, with or without the Academy’s “confirmation.” [Vanity Fair] 

This year’s Golden Globe awards have an official theme song by “the Bono of Asia,” Japanese rocker Yoshiki. It’s called, inventively enough, “Golden Globe Original Theme.” [LA Times]

The man who sold “The Deer Hunter”‘s Best Picture Oscar on eBay for $25,000 is, as you might imagine, not in the Academy’s good books. [Hollywood Reporter]

Moved to tears by “Les Mis?” There’s still hope for you, says David Denby. (One might say the same for us non-fans, who are apparently dead inside.) [New Yorker]

Three-time Oscar-winning DP Robert Richardson talks about his work on “Django Unchained.” [Below the Line]

Nathaniel Rogers gets his annual Film Bitch Awards under way with a roundup of the year’s best screenplays. [The Film Experience]

Another enjoyable annual feature kicks off: Slate’s year-in-review Movie Club, with Dana Stevens, Stephanie Zacharek, Keith Phipps and Pulitzer Prize winner Wesley Morris. [Slate]

Speaking of Morris, the soon-to-be-former Boston Globe writer is the latest critic defecting to online pastures. [The Wrap]

Katey Rich outlines five reasons she’s feeling pretty optimistic about this year’s Oscar race, regardless of the outcome. [Cinema Blend]

A zoo keeper’s view of “Life of Pi”: seems Ang Lee’s film has real-life tiger behavior more or less down pat. [The Guardian]

The North Texas Film Critics Association has thrown another log on the fire for Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln,” the film’s second critics Best Picture prize of the season. The film also won Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. Anne Hathaway (Best Supporting Actress) and Claudio Miranda (Best Cinematography) kept it from being a clean sweep. Check out the full list of winners below. As always, dig the season at The Circuit.

Best Picture
“Lincoln”

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

Best Cinematography
“Life of Pi”

Best Animated Film
“Wreck-It Ralph”

Best Foreign Language Film
“The Intouchables”

Best Documentary
“Bully”

Just as “Argo” had pulled it to a tie, “Zero Dark Thirty” takes another step out ahead of the critics awards haul with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Screenplay honors from the Vancouver Film Critics Circle. Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams won awards for their performances in “The Master.” Check out the full list below and, as always, you know: The Circuit.

Best Film
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Master”

Best Screenplay
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Holy Motors”

Best Documentary
“Searching for Sugar Man”

Best Canadian Film
“Rebelle” (a.k.a. “War Witch”)

Best Director of a Canadian Film
Panos Cosmatos, “Beyond the Black Rainbow”

Best Actor in a Canadian Film
Michael Rogers, “Beyond the Black Rainbow”

Best Actress in a Canadian Film
Rachel Mwanza, “Rebelle”

Best Supporting Actor in a Canadian Film
“Serge Kanyinda, “Rebelle”

Best Supporting Actress in a Canadian Film
Sarah Gadon, “Cosmopolis”

Best Canadian Documentary
“The World Before Her”

Best British Columbia Film
“Beyond the Black Rainbow”

Ian Caddell Award for Achievement
Alan Franey, Vancouver International Film Festival

Last week the visual effects branch of the Academy held its annual bake-off. The seven films in competition were “The Amazing Spider-Man,” “The Avengers,” “Cloud Atlas,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” “John Carter,” “Life of Pi,” “Prometheus,” “Skyfall” and “Snow White and the Huntsman.” Of those 10, “Cloud Atlas,” “John Carter,” “Skyfall” and “Snow White and the Huntsman” were shut out of today’s Visual Effects Society nominations. So take that as you will for Oscar prospects.

Leading the charge was “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” with seven nominations. Someone who attended the bake-off last week said he heard plenty of negative chatter about the work in the film that night, but that’s obviously not born out here. Not far behind was presumed frontrunner in the field, “Life of Pi,” and Marvel’s “The Avengers” with six apiece.

“The Amazing Spider-Man” and “The Dark Knight Rises” only pulled down one nod each, while “Prometheus” — a film I expect to be an Oscar nominee — picked up two. Ditto “Battleship,” though it didn’t make the list of Academy finalists.

On the animated side of things, “ParaNorman” led the way with five nods. “Brave” picked up 4.

I heard the “John Carter” reel wasn’t very impressive at the bake-off and that “Snow White and the Hunstman” looked surprisingly strong. “Skyfall” is heavy on special effects over visual effects, and since that only speaks to a minor slice of the branch, that could hold it back a bit. Nevertheless, I’ve been wondering if it could surprise with a nod anyway, given how popular the film is. “Cloud Atlas,” meanwhile, cut together an inherently confusing reel. “If you didn”t see the movie or trailer, watching this reel certainly won”t help you get a sense of this movie,” effects supervisor Dan Glass reportedly said, to many laughs.

So, again, take all of that as you will. I’m pretty close to settled on my picks but I could see a couple of surprises happening. In the meantime, check out the full list of nominees for the 11th annual Visual Effects Society awards below. Winners will be announced on February 5.

And, as always, keep track of all the ups and downs of the 2012-2013 film awards season via The Circuit.

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Feature Motion Picture
“The Avengers”
“Battleship”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Prometheus”

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
“Argo”
“Flight”
“The Impossible”
“Rust and Bone”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Outstanding Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Brave”
“Hotel Transylvania”
“ParaNorman”
“Rise of the Guardians”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“The Avengers” – The Hulk
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” – Goblin King
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” – Gollum
“Life of Pi” – Richard Parker

Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Brave” – Merida
“Hotel Transylvania” – Dracula
“The Pirates: Band of Misfits!”
“Wreck-It Ralph” – Vanellope

Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“The Avengers” – Midtown Manhattan
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” – Goblin Caverns
“Life of Pi” – Open Ocean
“Prometheus” – LV-233

Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Brave” – The Forest
“ParaNorman” – Main Street
“ParaNorman” – Graveyard”
“Rise of the Guardians” – The North Pole

Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“The Avengers” – Downtown Manhattan
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Total Recall: Hover Car Chase”

Outstanding Models in a Feature Motion Picture
“The Avengers” – Helicarrier
“The Dark Knight Rises” – Airplane Heist
“The Impossible” – Orchid Hotel
“Men in Black 3” – Cape Canaveral/Apollo Launch

Outstanding FX Simulation Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Brave”
“ParaNorman” – Angry Aggie Ink-Blot Electricity
“ParaNorman” – Practical Volumetrics”
“Rise of the Guardians” – Last Stand

Outstanding FX Simulation Animation in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“Battleship”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi” – Ocean
“Life of Pi” – Storm of God

Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture
“The Avengers” – Hulk Punch
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi” – Storm of God
“Prometheus” – Engineers & the Orrery

The Online Film Critics have jumped on the increasingly-strong “Argo” bandwagon and handed the film its Best Picture prize for 2012. Paul Thomas Anderson nabbed Best Director after his film, “The Master,” led the way with nominations. Philip Seymour Hoffman was also recognized for his work in the film. Daniel Day-Lewis and Jessica Chastain won top acting honors and Anne Hathaway picked up yet another prize for her performance in “Les Misérables.” Check out the full list of winners below and keep track of it all at The Circuit.

Best Picture
“Argo”

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “The Master”

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Argo”

Best Original Screenplay
“Moonrise Kingdom”

Best Cinematography
“Skyfall”

Best Animated Feature
“ParaNorman”

Best Film Not in the English Language
“Holy Motors”

Best Documentary
“This is Not a Film”