February 23, 2007
Gerard's Final Predictions

Yes, here we go. I'm sort of a coward and playing it safe for the most part. But maybe that's the denoument we'll receive to a wacky year?

I already put my thoughts on the tech categories on the table yesterday. I'll just add that I fully expect to get Original Score wrong. But no matter what I'd predict there, I'd expect to get it wrong.

Actress and Supporting Actress really aren't worth discussing as far as I'm concerned. Adapted Screenplay and Director seem to have been set for "The Departed" for quite some time. Original Screenplay is somewhat more open, I will concede, but it appears that "Little Miss Sunshine" inspires more passion, despite my preference for the critically acclaimed screenplay of "The Queen."

Truth be told, I'm getting a last minute O'Toole vibe but everytime I've had this hunch all season, nothing has come to fruition. And my instinct tells me Arkin will pull it off but given that Murphy has literally been my prediction for eleven months, I'm not going to backtrack now.

As for Best Picture, I've been toying with the possibilities for weeks. You don't need me to tell you that cases can be made for any of the nominees. But fundamentally "The Departed," though obviously not a typical Best Picture winner, has ultimately struck me as the one that makes the most sense as triumphing come the end of the night. It seems to have the package of mainstream appeal, cross-branch appeal, the right other nominations and the right other categories in which to emerge victorious.

Though it goes without saying that I could make equally plausible cases for victories by "Babel" or "Little Miss Sunshine." It'll be exciting; we won't know until the envelope is open.

"The Queen" is the sort of typical compromise choice but despite being my pick, I'm doubtful that many people feel passionately enough to vote for it. "Letters from Iwo Jima" would truly surprise me; I simply don't think it's had enough time to build. But hey...a win still wouldn't floor me.

So with 56 hours to go, here's where I place my bets...

Best Picture: "The Departed" (alt. "Babel")
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed" (alt. Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima")
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" (alt. Peter O'Toole, "Venus")
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen" (alt. Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"...as if)
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls" (alt. Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine")
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls" (alt. Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine")
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Departed" (alt. "Children of Men")
Best Original Screenplay: "Little Miss Sunshine" (alt. "The Queen")
Best Art Direction: "Pan's Labyrinth" (alt. "Dreamgirls")
Best Cinematography: "Children of Men" (alt. "Pan's Labyrinth")
Best Costume Design: "Dreamgirls" (alt. "Curse of the Golden Flower")
Best Film Editing: "The Departed" (alt. "Babel")
Best Makeup: "Pan's Labyrinth" (alt. "Apocalypto")
Best Music - Original Score: "The Queen" (alt. "Notes on a Scandal")
Best Music - Original Song: 'I Need to Wake Up' from "An Inconvenient Truth" (alt. 'Listen' from "Dreamgirls")
Best Sound Editing: "Letters from Iwo Jima" (alt. "Flags of Our Fathers")
Best Sound Mixing: "Dreamgirls" (alt. "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"...but really, the difference between #2 and #5 is very small in my opinon)
Best Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (alt. "Superman Returns")
Best Animated Feature: "Cars" (alt. "Happy Feet")
Best Foreign-Language Feature: "Pan's Labyrinth" (alt. "The Lives of Others")
Best Documentary Feature: "An Inconvenient Truth" (alt. "Deliver Us from Evil")
Best Documentary, Short Subject: "The Blood of Yingzhou District" (alt. ""Recycled Life")
Best Short Film, Animated: "The Little Matchgirl" (alt. "Lifted")
Best Short Film, Live Action: "West Bank Story" (alt. "Helmer & Son")


You were predicting Notes for score yesterday, right?

The Departed for best picture? You ought to be kidding.

Little Miss Sunshine won SAG, PGA. This is the lethal combination.

Kris: No?

Numberina: No director nod is simultaneously a lethal death sentence. It's obvious no film has it in the bag.

My mistake. Could have sworn you were.

All in all, very good.
I think you will come out of this with more right than Tapley.

But why arent you and Tapley picking Listen for best original song? Beyonce has been singing that song at any occasion she can get.

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