January 03, 2007
PGA Misses

The following films received PGA nominations in their respective years, but failed to go on to Best Picture nominations from the Academy:

"Walk the Line"
"The Incredibles"
"Cold Mountain"
"The Last Samurai"
"My Big Fat Greek Wedding"
"Road to Perdition"
"Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone"
"Almost Famous"
"Billy Elliot"
"Being John Malkovich"
"The Hurricane"
"Gods and Monsters"
"Waking Ned Divine"
"Hamlet" (1996)
"The People Vs. Larry Flynt"
"The American President"
"The Bridges of Madison County"
"Dead Man Walking"

Now, which of today's line-up most fits the bill of those above (if there is a bill)? Keeping in mind, of course, the guild is a very different body than it was two years ago.


In the past five years, five of the misses were musicals or comedies. The other four had budgets of close to, if not, 100 Million.

Ultimately what does this mean?

"Little Miss Sunshine" is the most vulnerable followed by, probably, "Dreamgirls."

"Babel" is probably the most helped by this. If the DGA chimes in for Iñárritu, it'll be really hard to trump as far as I'm concerned ("The Queen" and "The Departed" were presumably in already).

Little Miss Sunshine is too weak in my opinion...too light... they will go with more important films and the 2 directing thing scares me... Babel & United 93 will be fighting for that fifth spot... at this point I think Babel has an advantage

Babel will not make it, and replaced by United93.

This has me starting to think: maybe this year we'll see two lone directors. I mean given the finality of Dreamgirls as a contender, but a real lack of interest in it as a directing piece, plus all the issues with LMS, I could easily see a 3-2 split of BP Dir's and LDs something like:
Martin Scorsesce
Clint Eastwood
Steven Frears
Paul Greengras
any one of the 4 Spanish Speaking directors still in contention.

That being said, I would be really happy if Babel could score a suprise BP nod.

My thoughts exactly on the two lone director nominations. I'm thinking...

Cuaron or Inaritu

I'm still hoping that U93 is not out of the race. Tuesday will tell the story because i doubt it gets ensemble at SAGS tomorrow (although wouldn't that be an interesting and lengthy list)

Felt, the last time that happened was 2002 (David Lynch and Ridley Scott replaced Baz Luhrmann and Todd Fields) so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

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