January 13, 2007
Interesting BFCA/AMPAS Actor Comparison

The only time the BFCA has correctly predicted the Academy's acting line-up was in 2003, a year in which all eventual winners were largely seen as the frontrunners (save for Best Actor, in which Bill Murray had a clear outside shot).

Every other year, save for 1996, the group has missed at least two of the eventual winners. In '96, they only missed one.

This year, it's fair to say Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren and Jennifer Hudson are the clear favorites to win in their categories, but is Eddie Murphy really so far out fron tthat it's a foregone conclusion? A lot of things could happen there. The likely Best Picture winner has a duo of participants chomping at the bit: Group love for Jack Nicholson could play in, while last minute support for Mark Wahlberg could expand (and believe me - it's still one of the favorite performances from the film in the minds of many). In addition, Alan Arkin is hovering for a lifetime achievement scenario, much more so than Murphy's comeback story.

The safe play right now is likely a four-square agreement scenario from BFCA to Oscar, but it's worth taking the history into account.


I still keep wondering whether O'Toole will win Best Actor. It'd be a copout, but...

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