I'd personally hate to see this as the winner list, but a lot of these can happen. I think it's impossible though for Catherine Keener to win for her role in "Into the Wild". It's getting the necessary precursors and she's overdue, but nobody is talking about her. Nobody has said she's great in the movie. I haven't heard a word. I also think two wins for La Vie En Rose is too much (I think Hairspray or Sweeney Todd will win makeup). Otherwise, yes, I could see these all conceivably happening. But could Into the Wild win with just supporting actor and song behind it?

Kris,

Do you think that Sean Penn's current personal situation will have any impact on "Into the Wild's" chances, and if so, would that be positive or negative?

I sure hope you're wrong. The idea of "Into the Wild" winning any Oscars, let alone Best Picture, is too painful for me to consider.

The idea that "Transformers" will win the second-highest amount of Oscars is also scary, but you're probably correct there.

If cinematographers were voting, "Jesse James" would easily win that category. But this is the entire Academy voting, which leads me to think they might, shudder, go for the landscapes in "Into the Wild." Or maybe the camerawork in "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." But not "Jesse James." To win cinematography you need support from all across the board.

Jesse James will do just fine across the board. It's the only likely nominee to be that postcard beauty-type of film, and the actors have already shown up in favor of Affleck. There's not much you could say against its chances right now, though I think Diving Bell would certainly be the competition.

As for Keener, blas, the buzz right now doesn't matter for wins. If it did, Eddie Murphy certainly wouldn't have lost. I'm looking ahead, what could happen down the road, and a swell of support behind Keener makes more sense to me than for any of the other nominees.

Is everyone crazy? Of course there is a frontrunner. I don't mind predicting here and now that No Country for Old Men will win Best Picture.

Chad, I have two words for you.

Brokeback...and Mountain.

Touche, bblasinggame!

I'm glad to see I'm not the only person predicting Into the Wild as a real potential winner. I'm still predicting NCFOM, but I really feel people are underestimating Wild.

Into the Wild could pull it out, actually. If TWBB gets nominated along with NCFOM, I could see them duking it out among the same voters while Into the Wild (or Atonement or Juno) squeaking past both of them. Similar to how Adrian Brody squeaked past Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson in '02.
Also, Original Song should go to "Falling Slowly" from Once. Musically, I prefer If You Want Me, but watching the film again yesterday, I saw how that song was used to carry the soul of Once. It's almost iconic in that sense. At any rate, Once should get something, and what else would it get?

My Predictions (as of Jan 3).

Best Picture - Atonement
Best Director - The Coens
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress - Ellen Page
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan
Best Original Screenplay - Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay - No Country For Old Men
Best Score - Atonement
Best Song - Into the Wild
Best Art Direction - Sweeney Todd
Best Costume - Atonement
Best Make-up - Hairspray
Best Visual Effects - Transformers
Best Sound Editing - Transformers
Best Sound Mixing - Sweeney Todd
Best Editing - Sweeney Todd
Best Cinematography - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Animated Feature - Ratatouille
Best Foreign Film - 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days

I think Into the Wild will win something at the Oscars but not Best Picture.

I still think Falling Slowly from Once will win Best Song. Even if it doesn't win, I'm sure it will be the best song performed at the Oscars if the ceremony happens.

I do think the Coens will win Best Director but the Best Picture award is up for grabs.

The voters clearly don't vote for best song based on the merit of the song (well, most of the time), but a) who the biggest rock legend is (that'd be Veddar this year, surely) or b) the biggest shock value (is there something hip-hoppy?).

Gutsy, KT. ADMIRABLY gutsy...

Here's my take. I'm still drawing a blank on DDL since TWBB hasn't opened here yet. But everything else would be either thrilling beyond belief (TO ME AT LEAST LOL) or pretty much a best case scenario considering the direction that AMPAS will likely take.

If Marion won BA & Diablo took home OS for Juno I don't think my feet would touch the ground for weeks on end.

Hal & Catherine would make VERY deserving SA winners. Especially when you consider the alternative.

If Atonement can't make it to the finish line, I would be tremendously happy to see ITW take it.

I'd hate to think of Atonement completely shut out. But them's the breaks...

As of right now, I'm totally with you on the Into The Wild/Coens Best Picture/Director split, Kris. As for the actors, my thinking is DDL, Page, Bardem, and Ryan/Blanchett, but there's a lot of wiggle room there. But I think Into The Wild as the Best Picture spoiler for No Country is pretty on target.

I am deeply saddened that Kris has made this prediction. I have INTO THE WILD aon my worst 10 list, and even a nomination for Best Picture would be a travesty. I am rooting for ATONEMENT, and refuse to believe at this point, that it is "faltering" just because of that SAG slight. And NO COUNTRY still has it all over the Penn vanity project. Kris, I hope you will eventually pull back this ghastly prediction.

Seriously? Into the Wild? A Best Picture winner that grossed under $20 million dollars? There hasn't been a winner EVER with that low of a gross from Midnight Cowboy on. I can't find most of the numbers before that.