We now find ourselves within that 20 week time frame that ignites coverage in earnest. Studios are buying Oscar advertising like hotcakes. Traditional media outlets like the Los Angeles Times are preparing weekly supplements with the paper concentrating on the awards coverage at The Envelope. And vast critical judgment is being placed on films in contention, awards hopes rising or being dashed with each new opinion tossed into the pot.

This week, the Oscar charts get a massive shake-up as a number of things come to light. This might well be the last hurrah for Clint Eastwood’s “Flags of Our Fathers.” Getting a big bump to the #5 spot on the Best Picture chart just a week after I defended the film’s Oscar potential, we’re beginning to see an interesting divide amongst the critics on this film that just doesn’t speak to the situation that was “Munich” like some may believe.

On the outskirts, Martin Scorsese threatens that lone director position for his work on “The Departed,” a film that still doesn’t feel like a Best Picture contender to me, especially with “The Good German” on the way. But across-the-board critical approval and a justifiable box office sensation is tough to bet against, so come what may…

Over at Fox Searchlight, the campaign for “Little Miss Sunshine” has begun as the first screeners of the season went out to 6,000 plus Academy members earlier this week. In the event of a “Flags” exit, the light-hearted, critically acclaimed comedy sits poised to slip into the big race.

“The Queen” already represents a critical favorite amongst the likely final five, and interestingly, “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Departed” add to what could end up being a critics’ year in the Best Picture race, should the latter make it into contention. Any serious consideration for the modest critical hit “Little Children” remains questionable at best, and more in the realm of wishful thinking.

That supporting actress mess I was sloshing through last week became a little clearer to me this time around as I placed a few bets on Adriana Barraza in “Babel” (getting great notices from groups like the Hollywood Foreign Press) and Carmen Maura in “Volver” (who looks likely to join co-star Penelope Cruz for Pedro Almodovar’s critically beloved film).

Annette Bening’s fantastic portrayal in Ryan Murphy’s “Running with Scissors” sadly looks to be on the edges, once considered around these parts a shoo-in for the win. The recent Newsweek appraisal notwithstanding, I’m not sure this wonderful turn is as solid as it once was. The unfair critical thrashing the film has received in some circles is also beyond comprehension. It’s difficult to understand how someone could dislike this film, let alone hate it, but alas, that’s the nature of the beast. The opinions of many, not one, are to be taken into account, and at the end of the day, an overall thumbs down may be enough to give Cruz the edge over Bening’s “performance of her career,” as husband Warren Beatty has considered it.

As for the films hitting screens in the coming weeks – well – I just haven’t felt passionate enough to crank out reviews. I’ve written briefly about “The Prestige” twice, and I seriously don’t have it in my heart to write a lengthy pan of Chris Nolan’s effort. “Marie Antoinette” is a sluggish mess that lacks any and all insight into the world and character depicted, while “Infamous” is a fun romp with pretty costumes and sets and nothing more. A central caricature and awkward direction kind of sunk the ship on that one. “For Your Consideration,” meanwhile, just misses the boat completely on the potential for a brilliant piece of filmmaking. I’ll have a personal view of “Fur” tomorrow afternoon, but I’m not on the edge of my seat for that one, to be honest. “Pan’s Labyrinth” and, finally, “Venus” soon enough.

Personally I’m ready for this evening to roll around so I can hit up the 3-D premiere of “The Nightmare Before Christmas” over at the El Capitan.

Anyway, that’s where the pieces are falling this week. The detail in the charts speaks volumes, though one final note, regarding Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck’s “Half Nelson.” It seems screenplay for the Ryan Gosling starrer will wind up considered original after all, as the duo’s feature screenplay was written before “Gowanus,” the short from which the film was expanded, was produced. Tell a friend.

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Previous Oscar Columns:
10/09/06 - "'Flags' Lands and the Supporting Actresses Need Sustenance"
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"