With all of that said, to begin to doubt this film’s potential in the big race is foolish on a number of levels. By throwing such past misses as “White Hunter, Black Heart,” “Space Cowboys” and “Bridges of Madison County” into the air, one completely misses the point that this is a baby boomer movie for a baby boomer crowd. It will speak to the same emotions as Emilio Estevez’s “Bobby” will (or hopes to, anyway), and being a war film that tackles the subject from a unique perspective is a load of ammunition for the cause. Whether the film hits the right artistic notes or not doesn’t make a lot of difference at that point, because it seems people in this town can forgive Clint Eastwood for just about anything.

But all of that really speaks to a singular point of view at the moment, and therefore, aims to keep things grounded elsewhere if at all possible. “Flags of Our Fathers” is still very much in the hunt for a Best Picture nomination, and “Letters from Iwo Jima” will still be the insurance the film needs.

What I REALLY want to talk about is this grossly anorexic Supporting Actress race. What gives!?

In preparing my charts this afternoon, I didn’t even bother updating the supporting actress category because I’m at a loss as to what is viable at this point. Jennifer Hudson still seems like the best bet, with Abigail Breslin’s adorable “Little Miss Sunshine” turn and Cate Blanchett’s co-leading portrayal in “Notes on a Scandal” a ways behind. Beyond that…well, it’s terribly thin.

”Running with Scissors” is not lifting off amongst a good number of critics. While Annette Bening still feels right, the rest of the cast might fall to the wayside, which means that Jill Clayburgh performance I’ve been counting on all year long might not be able to punch through in the end. Her portrayal is resonant and hits the right emotional notes, but at the same time, the character isn’t overly present throughout, and certainly isn’t as showy as the rest of the ensemble.

The “Babel” girls, Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza, could make a play if the film makes it into the Best Picture arena, but they’ll need to be singled out rather definitively.

Sharon Stone’s work in “Bobby” is waiting to be critiqued at large, while Carmen Maura’s spot opposite Penelope Cruz in “Volver” just seems…inconsequential. Meanwhile Julie Walters is a maniac in “Driving Lessons,” but she’s also over-acting far too much for comfort, while the film is a tiny endeavor that may not be seen altogether.

I fear Juliette Binoche’s wonderful performance in “Breaking and Entering” will get lost in the shuffle of the shrug being tossed that film’s way, while Frances de la Tour could still shine in “The History Boys,” a film being played close to the vest by Fox Searchlight for some time.

That’s ten names, and really, only one or two of them can be seen as approaching “strong.” It really feels like the entire race is up in the air like no other. You could just as easily speak the names of Shareeka Epps, Toni Collette, Phyllis Sommerville, Catherine O’Hara, Anika Noni-Rose and Thandie Newton in the same breath as three quarters of the names above. And even if they were all in the hunt, given the roles and performances of those people have seen, it all still seems awfully BORING.

Maybe Fox should revert to the supporting category on Meryl Streep’s “The Devil Wears Prada” turn, where a guaranteed nomination and potential win would make this race heated – finally. But they seem to be holding fast. I’m also starting to feel a wave of hope for Emma Thompson’s authoritative performance in “Stranger Than Fiction” amidst all of this as she is a respected veteran putting out solid work in a well-received film. And with “The Illusionist” making the money it’s making, the Yari Film Group wouldn’t be out of their minds to market the hell out of Jessica Biel to the Academy. Why not? This race is utterly vacant!

What makes this whole scenario all the more interesting is how stacked the lead actress category is. It is a good year for ladies, yes – the ladies who are front and center. But the supporting ranks are a strange ghetto waiting to be dominated by someone savvy enough to strike while the iron is hot.

Maybe I’ll find some inspiration over the week to update the supporting actress chart next time around, but it’s looking pretty lousy this week.

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Previous Oscar Columns:
10/02/06 - "What's in a lead anyway?"
09/18/06 - "Aftermath"
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"