Best Picture Hopefuls

“All the King’s Men” – Sony is still deciphering their awards palette, but the first litmus test will be for Steven Zaillian’s Robert Penn Warren adaptation, unveiling Sunday night. If the film proves to be a hiccup amongst the journalists in attendance, it’s only the first barrier as there are plenty of other go-to films in store. I’ll have a clearer opinion when I see the film here in town on Thursday.

“Babel” – Alejandro González Iñárritu’s film has played the festival circuit just right, and when the film screens before the crowd Saturday night, further critical approval might be the fuel needed to push it right through the film awards season. The Cannes presentation was met with exhilaration, though typical snobbery was present as well.

“Bobby” – There have been equally positive and negative test screening reactions to this Weinstein Company hopeful that precious few have seen, but the cat will be out of the bag next Thursday when Emilio Estevez’s ensemble drama finally plays before a significant amount of the press as a “work in progress.” The company is higher on this film’s awards potential than other films in their arsenal this year, and with absolute reason. But let’s see what the majority has to say.

“Breaking and Entering” – Playing the day before “Bobby,” next Wednesday, is Anthony Minghella’s contemporary Jude Law starrer. The Weinsteins have kept the enthusiasm on the film somewhat muted in the wake of “Bobby” being their prime Oscar horse, but if 2001 showed us anything, it is that they know how to shift focus in a hurry if need be.

“Catch a Fire” – No one who’s seen Phillip Noyce’s latest political potboiler has peeped a word about it from what I can discern. So the Sunday screening of this Focus Features hopeful will be all the tealeaves we can hope for. I’ve personally had a keen eye toward this Apartheid drama’s awards prospects for some time, but it’s all about the film in the end.

“A Good Year” – Fox is saying they don’t have major awards plans in store for this obviously pedestrian Russell Crowe romance. That might be the correct play this year, as dependant Fox Searchlight has a whopping slate and could use the extra funds. But if the critical community flips over Ridley Scott’s latest, all bets are off. We’ll know quickly, as the Saturday night screening is one of the earliest screenings of note at the festival.

“Little Children” – Todd Field’s latest has already stirred positive reaction from critics at Telluride and sits poised to potentially be the critical darling of the year (why, oh why?). The buzz will really begin on Wednesday, however, as Toronto is the true launching-off point for films with Oscar hopes.

Also Looking for Awards Love

“Copying Beethoven” – Now that this film finally has distribution, the campaign could be underway after Sunday's screening. If Ed Harris’s performance as Ludwig von Beethoven knocks them out of their seats, watch out for a determined Miramax/MGM campaign. If it withers away, expect to see it at the video store some day and think “Oh yeah, I remember that.”

“Infamous” – Most have written off this Truman Capote biopic, which screens next Friday, due to last year’s “Capote” stealing all of its thunder. Reactions out of Telluride have been mixed, though positive on the performances. At the very least the film will be a point of interest for legions of writers who still have that strange place in their hearts for the journalist and novelist.

“For Your Consideration” – One film that has to be an odd anticipation for studio heads and publicists sizing up their Oscar campaigns is Christopher Guest’s mockumentary of the process. Screening Sunday night, we might find an original screenplay contender on our hands. It’ll be a little while before I finally take this one in, but I personally can’t wait.

“Stranger Than Fiction” – Marc Forster’s latest has become Sony’s dark horse, a film that will likely end up deservedly playing like a champ to the critical community. This screening on Saturday night will surely announce the arrival of Will Ferrell’s more versatile acting talents, and it could put Maggie Gyllenhaal right back into the supporting actress race for her saucy turn as a bohemian baker with spunk. Rest assured, screenwriter Zach Helm will be a sought-after commodity when all is said and done.

“Venus” – Another part of Miramax’s lead actor-heavy line-up, Peter O’Toole’s buzz will increase or fall away after Saturday night’s screening. Talk began circulating a few weeks ago that the legendary actor had the chops in Roger Michell’s latest. Maybe the eighth time will be the charm. Or maybe it’s “The Final Curtain” all over again.

“Volver” – Already a rousing success at Cannes, Pedro Almodovar’s quirky and jovial latest from Sony Pictures Classics will pop up early. Screening Friday night, the event could put Penélope Cruz’s career-best performance and, to a lesser extent, co-stars Lola Dueñas and Carmen Maura back on awards watchers’ radars. Sony Classics spent a lot of money on Oscar campaigns last year, ultimately scoring a Best Picture berth for “Capote.”

Other Events to Consider

“10 Items or Less” – Could be the start of a lead actor push for Morgan Freeman.

“Alatriste” – Viggo Mortensen’s long awaited biopic.

An Evening with Michael Moore – Ever the salesman, expect Moore to use this opportunity to drum up interest in next year’s “Sicko.”

“Jindabyne” – Ray Lawrence’s latest, one of two Sony Classics Laura Linney starrers this year.

“Quelques Jours en Septembre” – Another 9/11 film, this time fictional in nature, that has received mixed reaction out of Venice.

“Rescue Dawn” – Werner Herzog transforms his own documentary, “Little Dieter Needs to Fly,” into a full-scale narrative.

“Snow Cake” – A performance film that could play well for Alan Rickman and Sigourney Weaver – or not.

“The Wind That Shakes the Barley” – Ken Loach’s Cannes stand-out hopes to find some more traction in the festival circuit.

And then, of course, there are the little films that could really stand out against the fray. “Bonneville,” “Candy,” “Cashback” (based on the Oscar nominated short of the same name), “The Last Kiss,” “The Magic Flute,” “Pan’s Labyrith” and “Seraphim Falls” could all stir talk for either this year or perhaps next year’s awards season. A personal interest is “Macbeth,” from Geoffrey Wright, director of “Romper Stomper,” but that aside, it’s all about the awards talk.

Be sure to check back here later in the week for Gerard Kennedy’s coverage of the festival.

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Previous Oscar Columns:
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"