Next up is Forest Whitaker, whose earth-shattering portrayal in “The Last King of Scotland” had heads spinning in Telluride a full week before doing the same thing to festival-goers in Toronto. The film has been whispered as a personal favorite for many Toronto attendees, and deservingly so. Perhaps from here Fox Searchlight can feel out other arenas they might find recognition for the film.

A few films had a rough time, only one of them dying outright (“All the King’s Men”). “Bobby” was whispered as largely disliked by a bunch of people who didn’t commit anything to print, so we’re left with In Contention (positive), Emanuel Levy (positive), Tom O’Neil (positive), trade reviews (positive) and a sing-song recap (negative) for the film’s published reaction. From here, who knows where the road will take the film? It regardless has the potential to tap into the baby boomer set and fight its way, with Harvey Weinstein artillery, to a Best Picture nomination.

Elsewhere, “Volver” strangely found Best Picture buzz. Considering the film isn’t near the league of past foreign language Best Picture nominees, I think it’s a stretch to go that far. Though Penelope Cruz’s buzz has certainly spiked and she remains part of a fierce six-woman fight for a five slot race.

“Catch a Fire” also premiered, a film long-touted on this site as a Best Picture contender based on hopes for pedigree and subject matter alone. Well, the reaction was a positive one (and how couldn’t it be in that environment), but the film is a little too unraveled to be a real Best Picture possibility. Derek Luke’s fantastic portrayal has a fighting chance, but it’s an uphill battle that finally gives me the opportunity to look elsewhere for Best Actor potential.

All of this you know quite well. So what can we say from here?

I’m venturing some guesses in my predictions this week, laying a bet on Ryan Gosling, for instance, looking better and better as contenders like Sean Penn, Ed Harris and Derek Luke seemingly take their exits.

Ben Affleck gets a big surge of hope in the supporting actor arena, considered a threat in the race around these parts for the better part of two months.

And with a Best Picture lineup remaining interestingly elusive, maybe Paramount can slam three nominees home after all. “Babel” continues a route of raves that give (and have given) plenty of reason to bow to its potential in the big race.

Now, we await the next wave of films. “The Good German,” “The Good Shepherd,” “The Prestige” and “The Departed” all come knocking in the coming months. Who knows what they will do to affect the landscape, but I’m beginning to get the feeling the awards race of 2006 will be largely dependant on pre-season potential.

An Oscar season becomes about taking away more so than adding to the mixture. Though Toronto and Telluride have been somewhat uneventful, they have succeeded in removing elements from the canvas. This time of year really is about slowly revealing the picture underneath. So let’s see what gets pealed away next.

(I'd like to thank Gerard for his accomplished and unique coverage of Toronto. Now get some sleep, kiddo.)

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Previous Oscar Columns:
09/11/06 - "It's All Happening."
09/04/06 - "Aw, Canucks."
08/28/06 - "On Your Marks..."
08/14/06 - "Enough Foreplay!"
08/07/06 - "Don't Knock Masturbation; it's Sex with Someone I Love"
07/31/06 - "Old and New, the Oscar Season Approaches"