Closing thoughts as we gear up for the Oscars

Posted by · 12:13 pm · February 22nd, 2013

I think we’ve covered it, yeah? The season has been recounted, the big expected outcome has been laid out, we’ve consoled you if that outcome is troublesome and we’ve offered up our guesses on what to expect otherwise (including our unique crafts category analysis). The season, in so many words, is nearing its end.

It’s been interesting to see a number of pundits slowly shift over to my logic in a few areas during phase two. Ang Lee for Best Director, Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour” (along with Michael Haneke for his screenplay), Robert De Niro for “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo” for Best Film Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay (there was a time when it COULD NOT WIN ANYTHING OTHER THAN BEST PICTURE OMG), all predicted here and there now, all possibilities I’ve been mulling over for weeks. And yet, a number of these don’t feel secure. Not in the slightest. We could all be dead wrong.

Indeed, Jennifer Lawrence may well have fought off that Riva surge. Christoph Waltz may have found his way through the circuit to the gold (or Tommy Lee Jones may have owned it all along). The Best Director prize, which feels more “honorary” than usual this year given the absence of the frontrunner, may well go to Steven Spielberg — or, in a shocker, to David O. Russell. It’s all over the place. None of us will look brilliant Monday morning by design, that’s for sure.

So it is (and I do say this often, because always be prepared) that I’m banking on a poor showing in my predictions Sunday night. My picks are a mixture of gut and head, as I think a lot of peoples’ are this year, and I’m ready to just see the chips fall where they may. But as I said in Monday’s final Off the Carpet column, it was an exciting season to watch unfold. And I wouldn’t mind seeing a little more excitement, as indeed, the whole thing feels ripe for the unexpected this weekend.

Expect us to be live-blogging the Independent Spirit Awards in some fashion on Saturday. Greg will be at the beach in Santa Monica for the proceedings and will offer thoughts later in the evening. (I’m jealous; it’s the best awards show of the season.) Sunday I’ll be filing stories throughout the evening and I imagine there will be this and that in between.

So, my final predictions here. Guy’s here. Greg’s here. Gerard’s here. Or you can just flip through the gallery below, which went up last night. You can also hear final thoughts from Anne Thompson and myself in this morning’s podcast, if you haven’t given that a listen yet. Also, you can read back through (or watch, in some cases) our interviews with 50 of the nominees.

Finally, you can dig back through all the Oscar Guide analysis via the links in the Oscar Guide section below this post. Please note, the only guides that I went back and changed were the Best Documentary – Short Subject category (switching my prediction from “Inocente” to “Mondays at Racine”) and the Best Animated Feature Film category (switching from “Wreck-It Ralph” to “Brave”). The only one Guy changed was Best Director (switching from Steven Spielberg to Ang Lee). Gerard is sticking with his picks.

And I guess that about covers it. Postmortems on Monday. Let’s see what happens…

(Oh, before I forget, don’t forget to download the annual HitFix Oscar Ballot for your Oscar polls!

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