Now that a list of finalists has been announced, the time seems right to delve into analysis for the last “crafts” category – Best Original Song.

I should say that there are never any locks here, with seemingly sure bets often failing to make the cut. It is a rather odd category, in my opinion, as I often wonder if original song writing is such an important contribution to filmmaking that it deserves a category to itself whereas tasks like stunt co-ordination and casting are not currently awarded. However, the fact of the matter is that the category’s existence often results in many stars coming to the show who otherwise would not – so it’s not going anywhere any time soon.

An alteration in the rules two years ago changed the process of choosing the nominees slightly. Each song will be screened to the music branch in the context used in the film and then given a grade. If five films receive the minimum grade, the songs with the five highest averages become the nominees. Furthermore, if not enough songs receive high enough vote tallies, there could be less than five nominees, as we saw in 2005. I would not be surprised in the slightest if this happened again.