December 20, 2007
What is going on?

The SAG really threw me for a loop today. Things we learned:

Sweeney Todd is by no means a lock.

Atonement is by no means a front-runner.

Ryan Gosling and Viggo Mortensen seem to be a pretty safe bet for nominations (how often do actors grab a Globe and an SAG and miss out? Any stats, people?). If I had to guess, I'd say it'll wind up Lewis, Depp, Gosling, Mortensen and Clooney.

American Gangster is alive and well.

Into the Wild has the actors support in a big, big way.

The biggest surprise for me is no Juno in ensemble, but the 3:10 nom is wicked-cool.



I don't see Gosling as a safe bet. And I really don't think he will get nominated. The problem is that he's in the comedy/musical category. You ask how often someone with a GG and a SAG nom misses out on Oscar. Off the top of my head I can think of two (and there's probably more). And keep in mind that they both WON the GG comedy/musical! Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon and Richard Gere for Chicago. They are both much bigger stars than Gosling, won the Globe, and still missed out. Gosling have to win the Globe to stay in the race. And he won't do that. So I must admit that I don't see any real (pun intended ;-) ) chance for Gosling.

Ziyi Zhang - GG/SAG for Memmoirs of a Geisha, missed Oscar.

Russell Crowe - GG/SAG for Cinderella man, missed Oscar.

Dennis Quaid - GG/SAG for Far From Heaven, missed Oscar.

Hayden Christensen - GG/SAG for Life as a House, missed Oscar

Maria Bello - GG/SAG for The Cooler, missed Oscar.

Cate Blanchett - GG/SAG for Bandits, missed Oscar

Cameron Diaz - GG/SAG for Vanilla Sky AND Being John Malkovich, missed Oscar

Jane Horrocks - GG/SAG for Little Voice, missed Oscar

Anjelica Huston - GG/SAG for The Crossing Guard, missed Oscar

and that's as far back as I can be bothered looking. Interesting though that SAG passed on Keira for Pride & Prejudice for Ziyi Zhang - a movie not many people actually liked - and they did the same this year. Nominating Cate Blanchett for a movie nobody seems to actually like. Could AMPAS throw Keira in again?

And Jim Carrey and Richard Gere. Duh.

What about no GG+SAG noms but got Oscar nods/wins?

I can only think of one - Marcia Gay Hayden from Pollock

Marcia Gay Harden didn't get GG or SAG noms for either of her Oscar-nommed performances, actually. Although she was ensemble nommed for Mystic River. And, in actual fact, Ed Harris also received neither GG or SAG love for Pollack.

Samantha Morton is in the same boat as MGH. Only received an emseble SAG nod for In America but got an Oscar nod. Same again for Armin Mueller-Stahl in Shine

There'a a swag of people only nominated for one (GG or SAG) and not the other yet still got Oscar love.

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