December 23, 2007
Any dissenters on a double nod for Blanchett?

I finally gave in with SAG. She now has BFCA, Globe and SAG nods with BAFTA likely following suit. That's a very hard combo to crack.

In spite of this, I still feel this is not a sure thing. Diane Lane and Sean Penn excepted, critically maligned films seldom earn acting nominations. Moreover, getting re-nominated for a sequel is almost unheard of - Bing Crosby, Al Pacino and Paul Newman are the only three actors to have ever accomplished it. Does "The Golden Age" seem likely to be the vehicle for #4?

That said, I feel her competition is what is ultimately going to push Blanchett over the edge. Keira Knightley has pulled the "SAG snub but Oscar nominee" trick before but there she had a BFCA nod and was the true lead of her film; plus, she'd be VERY young to have two lead actress nominations. Amy Adams is in, well, a Disney film, the sort that would seem more likely to go to SAG before Oscar. I'd still have her in #6. Helena Bonham-Carter has received buzz secondary to Depp since the film started screening. And Laura Linney has gotten traction whatsoever. (Alas, poor Tang Wei...)

Anyone still holding out on this front? I'm curious to see where you are.


Right now I'm predicting -

1. Marion Cotillard
2. Julie Christie
3. Angelina Jolie
4. Ellen Page
5. Keira Knightley

with Blanchett coming next. I hope Keira gets in.

My prediction:

1. Julie Christie
2. Marion Cotillard
3. Ellen Page
4. Tang Wei
5. Angelina Jolie

I'm still holding on to Keira over Cate. As I mentioned the other day, there are plenty of situations where people have gotten major noms and then no Oscar. Russell Crowe especially. People had dumped him from their predix and then started predicting him en masse only to be let down at the final hurdle.

Having said that, I'd be more confident in Keira if her film had made ANY showing at SAG.

I remain somewhat confused by the lack of love for Laura Linney and remain hopeful that she could sneak into the fifth position in a rare insightful move by the Academy.

Seriously though, it seems like a great place to reward The Savages-- the actor field is too crowded for Philip Seymour Hoffman to fit in and I am doubtful about the original screenplay category.

I'm still holding out for Amy Adams. Cotillard was fantastic, but I'm sometimes more impressed with performances that do more with less. No one would be talking about an Oscar nom for Adams' role if she hadn't made magic of it. On the other hand, NOT earning Oscar buzz playing Edith Piaf would be sub-par at best. The challenges for each actress are different, but about equal to me.

If anyone is still paying attention to this blog entry, I agree with those who want to substitute Laura Linney and Amy Adams for Cate and Angelina. Both performances were better. The usual suspects (Cotillard, Christie, and Page) fill out the list.

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