November 29, 2006
Wrong-o, Tom O...

A blog entry today at Tom O'Neil's Gold Derby claims the following:

How soon those gurus have forgotten a November just a few years ago when no one saw that dark horse "Moulin Rouge!" dashing into the derby, still maintaining a steady trot from its impressive run the previous summer when it earned $56 million. As of the eleventh month of that year, Hollywood film snobs had dismissed it as featherweight fluff, certainly no threat to the lofty, snooty Academy Awards. But, yeowsa, suddenly Nicole Kidman & Co. came out can-can kicking onto the derby track when the National Board of Review named it best pic in early December. "Moulin Rouge!" gathered substantial steam in subsequent weeks, earning the second-most Oscar noms and it darned near won best pic when "A Beautiful Mind" came under attack for sugar-coating the life of its main real-life character.

It's understandable Tom might not have realized that I nailed that prediction down in August of 2001 when I initiated After all, I didn't have much of a readership yet. But some of us DID see that "shocker" coming.

The last bit about "Moulin Rouge!" nearly taking the win...well, that's just a bit of Tom O justification for that infamous prediction of his. You know, the one he stood by all the way to the opening of the envelope, that Baz Luhrmann's film would take the prize. We all have our missteps (I've got more than a few dooseys), but I'd say it's pretty clear the silver went to "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" that year. But all the same, it was a trippy ride for that vibrant musical - the best film of the year.

He also goes on to call the nominations for "Ray" and "Seabisuit" surprises as well. I'm not sure what race you were watching Tom, but those were fairly certain in the final stretch as well.

ANYWAY, it's a valid entry nontheless because it points out the culture of proclamations and "shoo-ins" in the world of Oscar prognostication.

"It's very amusing," O'Neil says, "to hear this question echo so commonly among top Oscarlogists, who should know better: 'Hey, whatcha think is the fifth best-picture nominee?' The assumption is that the following four are slam-dunk, shoo-in, definite nominees: 'Dreamgirls,' 'The Departed,' 'The Queen' and 'Little Miss Sunshine.'"

Tom O'Neil's Gold Derby (The Envelope)



I think what Tom is saying about Ray and Seabiscuit is that very few people were talking about their BP prospects in October-November, which in all fairness is pretty accurate.

Not entirely. Seabiscuit was a $100 million grossing film unde rthe wing of a successful Oscar studio, and Ray, while making its stand a little later in the game, always looked likely to ride in on the coattails of a bravura performance.

I guess I can't speak for anyone else (but I know many were on the same side of the coin), but by the "eleventh month" of 2003 and 2004, I certainly saw those nods coming.

Tom O'Neill is the internet equivelant of Entertainment Tonight. "You heard it here first folks! Dreamgirls is headed for Oscar" They actually said that about a week ago.

And, yeah, Seabiscuit and Ray were pretty solid for nominations.

Oh, that is so irritating, especially about Moulin Rouge. We were all over it from Day One. Ground Zero. Seriously!!!

Alright, let's take some cold showers. This wasn't meant to be a Tom O bitchfest, just some friendly joshing. The "Buzzmeter" is seeing better days lately, however...


You heard it here first -
Babel is going to take the big prize this year. It wont go away so we might as well embrace it.

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