Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

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« Chart overhaul on the way… | Main | Can I just say this?… »

11/27 Chart Update

charlie3.jpg


A chart update. Finally.


Well, the absence of "Charlie Wilson's War" from all but two charts this week should give some indication as to my perception of its Oscar chances. I'm inclined to call it "Primary Colors"-lite, but regardless, at 97 minutes and feeling somewhat abridged, it's kind of turned out to be the race's ugly duckling. It's our own fault for elevating expectations, but Universal still has a very tight, easily marketable feature for the holiday season. "Hey, Merry Christmas. Remember when we fucked up in Afghanistan?? Haha." Etc.


Paramount Vantage is getting better Academy screening results for "The Kite Runner" than for "Into the Wild," which could be tricky territory for the studio to navigate. There has been no clear-cut decision from the studio to trumpet loudest for one and only one of it's trio of primed hopefuls. Some might hope for three berths, but the possibility is all too apparent for none.


"No Country for Old Men" is still an issue of discussion for those willing to discuss it, but I'm beginning to think the power of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" might be enough for Miramax to overcome the foreign factor with voters. It doesn't hurt having Max von Sydow weeping on screen and breaking hearts as a result.


The Cate Blanchett rumor-mill was shot down by Tom O'Neil initially yesterday, though others made calls (who didn't?). So no use bringing up the supporting vs. lead brou-ha-ha.


I'll let the charts speak. "Sweeney" comes Thursday, after which all cats are out of the bag.


Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts

The Contenders (by category)
2007 Films-by-Studio Rundown
Oscar Predictions Archive




Previous Oscar Columns:
11/12/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
11/05/07 - "11/5 Chart Update"
10/29/07 - "10/29 Chart Update"
10/15/07 - "The Oil Man vs. the Demon Barber?"
10/08/07 - "Clean-up on Aisle September"
10/01/07 - "Still Anybody's Game"
09/17/07 - "Post-Toronto Update"
09/10/07 - "Notes from the Eye of a Storm"
09/03/07 - "Launching the New Season"
08/03/07 - "August Update"
07/01/07 - "The Silence is Deafening"
02/26/07 - "Forging Ahead: In Contention's Year in Advance Oscar Speculation"


2006 Predictions Archive

Comments

And then there were two. Right now, the Oscar race for Best Picture seems pretty clear. Atonement is the definite front runner, and the film to beat. The competition are dropping like flies. Juno and Into the Wild are both too "small" to win the big prize. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly won't win, because foreign films never win in the top category. Charlie Wilson's War is to "slight" to go all the way, and No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood are probably to dark, and dour for the Academy's taste. The only film left, that could possibly stand in the way of Atonement walking with Best Picture, is Sweeney Todd. If the film gets rave reviews from critics, and does good box office, it could provide Atonement with it's only real competition. Sweeney figures to get a Best Picture nomination, if for no other reason then it figures to get so many nominations in the "tech" categories, that it probably will make the final five by default (unless it becomes this years Dreamgirls). Still, Atonement should rule at the Academy Awards. It would have to do absolutely miserable at the box office (because it's already won over all the critics)for Sweeney to even have a prayer. Ocsar night could end up being a real yawner if the Academy takes to this film the way they did with the English Patient.

Then so be it. I am content with knowing that "Charlie Wilson's War" is not a disaster and is a good film much I expected it. I fully intend to see it regardless of it's Oscar chances.

Sorry, forgot to comment on American Gangster's chances. I liked the film. It's solid, but just not spectacular. This film has last years winner (The Departed) working against it. I just can't see the Academy going with a "gangster" flick two years in a row.

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2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon