Features







2007-08 Oscar Calendar



[Monday, December 3, 2007]

Official Screen Credits
Forms Due.


[Wednesday, December 26, 2007]

Nominations ballots mailed.


[Saturday, January 12, 2008]

Nominations polls close
5 p.m. PST.


[Tuesday, January 22, 2008]

Nominations announced
5:30 a.m. PST
Samuel Goldwyn Theater


[Wednesday, January 30, 2008]

Final ballots mailed.


[Monday, February 4, 2008]

Nominees Luncheon


[Saturday, February 9, 2008]

Scientific and Technical
Awards Dinner


[Tuesday, February 19, 2008]

Final polls close 5 p.m. PST.


[Sunday, February 24, 2008]

79th Annual
Academy Awards Presentation
Kodak Theatre

Powered by
Movable Type 3.2


« "Tech Support": WANDERERS… | Main | Wake Me Up When It's Over… »

Predicting the Screen Actors Guild

dream6.jpg


The Screen Actors Guild awards will land Sunday night, and in a season that has proven itself just this week to be a bit less confined by the status quo than we would have expected, anything seemingly can happen. The race everyone will be looking to is Best Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture, where two of this year's Best Picture nominees sit perched for the beginnings of a final sprint to the finish.


Here's a look at how I expect the night to unfold.

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza, "Babel"
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"


Predicted winner: Jennifer Hudson
Back-Up: Abigail Breslin


It's really left to be seen whether the industry itself is as high on Jennifer Hudson's "Dreamgirls" performance as the critical world has been, but I'll predict her to take the win despite myself. I have the lurking suspicion that Abigail Breslin could surprise the lot and pop up as the big winner here, but however things shake down, the truly deserving actress (Kikuchi) will remain empty-handed.


sunshinearkin.jpg


Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"


Predicted winner: Alan Arkin
Back-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio


A lot of folks out there in prognostication land expect the actors' only opportunity to reward Leonardo DiCaprio's "Departed" performance will show itself through the vote turnout in this category. I'm not so sure, especially given the fact that he's nominated elsewhere and could suffer vote-splitting. I also think the Eddie Murphy train will have stopped with the HFPA and Alan Arkin will begin his long road to an Oscar win with a triumph here.


The SAG likes its veterans. You'll recall wins in the past for Christopher Walken, Ian McKellan, Helen Mirren, Albert Finney, Judi Dench, Robert Duvall, Gloria Stuart (in a tie), Lauren Bacall and Ed Harris. And those are just the examples that didn't translate into Oscar success. Additionally, nominations have come for Sally Field, James Earl Jones, Stockard Channing, Gena Rowlands, Pam Grier, Kevin Kline, Cloris Leachman and James Garner when Oscar didn't come knocking. Suffice it to say, they dig the old-timers. Even more than they dig child actors.


This is where Alan Arkin's Oscar campaign gets its nitro.


queenphone.jpg


Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate winslet, "Little Children"


Predicted winner: Helen Mirren
Back-Up: Judi Dench


On the stunning condition that Helen Mirren doesn't continue her precursor dominance her e(and after all, she DID win recently enough), I'd expect Judi Dench to be the one to slip in and steal the win rather than Meryl Streep (though I concede she too has won recently). But who am I kidding? The 2006-2007 film awards season is Helen Mirren's bitch.


venus.jpg


Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"


Predicted winner: Peter O'Toole
Back-Up: Forest Whitaker


This is the first time since 1997 that the SAG's Best Actor category has matched the Academy's 100%. This is also a race at the Oscars many have chalked up for Forest Whitaker, and with due cause. Whitaker's performance as Idi Amin in Kevin Macdonald's "The Last King of Scotland" has DOMINATED the precursor circuit. But we're on a whole different playing field now, and if the Guild looks likely to toss a wrench into this year's Oscar expectations, this is where I think it'll happen.


You might know by now that Miramax sent out over 100,000 DVD screeners of "Venus" to the entire SAG membership, a strategy emplyed once before, when Lionsgate hawked a collection of "Crash" to acting households across the country. While that is a hell of a tactic, I don't expect saturation to be the only factor in Peter O'Toole's winning this award.


This is PETER O'TOOLE, an actor's actor. This is an awards show in its infancy that hasn't had the opportunity to nominate O'Toole, let alone award him a statue. To boot, the veteran thespian is portraying an actor in Roger Michell's film, a definite plus for a membership thatconsists of plenty of struggling performers. This isn't the uppity Academy membership we're talking about here. So while I don't think O'Toole will duplicate his SAG success at the Oscars, he certainly has the right role to win big here with a group that loves its veterans. It'll be a brutal two-way fight for the Oscar in the eyes of many following Sunday night.


sunshine7.jpg


Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Babel"
"Bobby"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Little Miss Sunshine"


Predicted Winner: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Back-Up: "The Departed"


And here's the big race. "Dreamgirls" and "Bobby" make themselves apparent here, but not with oscar, while the remaining three nominees are in the thick of the Best Picture hunt. Whoever wins here, mustering definitive support from the actors' branch, will have a leg up at the Oscars. But who will it be?


When you think of how this year has come to be defined, you have to consider the modest tale that is "Little Miss Sunshine." The Guild loves their comedies, but besides that, this film is the true organic ensemble of the bunch. Sure, "Babel" has a more complicated ensemble, while "The Departed" boasts more demanding portrayals and therefore more electrifying performances, but "Little Miss Sunshine" is the film that truly feels like an ensemble performance film. It is a family's antics unfolding on screen, with all age groups represented. And you just...can't...root...against...this...film.


I'm predicting "Letters from Iwo Jima" to win the Oscar at the moment, if for no other reason than I expect its buzz is just beginning, rather than drawing to a close. But if any film can topple it at the Oscars, it's "Little Miss Sunshine." The SAG Ensemble award will be a hell of a start.


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) Predictions


Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
Best Ensemble: "Little Miss Sunshine"

Comments

An interesting stat here Kris, in the 9 years since all four major guilds announced nominations, only Gladiator has won without the support of all four guilds. AND in Gladiator's year NO film was endorsed by all four guilds. Crouching Tiger missed SAG, Traffic missed the PGA, and Gladiator missed the WGA (arguably the most irrelevant of the bunch).

So what I'm saying is: While there's a first time for everything, the only real contenders are Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine.

don't forget about "letters from iwo jima." the Academy loves Eastwood, and it's a very well done World War II drama told in a strikingly novel way. i'm not saying it's the best film of the year, but if they campaigned this movie a bit and got people in the seats -- it would be the frontrunner.

I don't consider The Queen out of the race or ranked last in the likelihood of winning. It's a serious dark horse to win.

You're article has restored faith in my convictions that Arkin and O'Toole will snag trophies for their first nominations in this ceremony. Not only are they both actorly roles and all that rubbish, but they're both favorites. So far, Murphy's appeared rather cocky, hasn't he? I wouldn't be surprised to see that hurt him in the end. Plus, if Hudson's winning, why would they give the film another trophy? Arkin is memorable, brief, and guaranteed to deliver a fun, lively speech.

As for O'Toole, I think you're right. Being such a legend, this is his first chance for glory in this race and if anything will help solidify his Oscar chances, it'll be a win here, as opposed to a potential BAFTA win (which I doubt, even if he is a Sir). Whitaker was amazing and a great guy, but I felt a negative aura about the air at both the Globes and BFCA. Think that might harm him? They love his performance, but what if his speeches are a turnoff? Again, with O'Toole, you'll surely get a plethora of charming quips and endearing affection--I think that it'll make the Academy, at the very least, want to reward him. He's on death's door, and if Henry Fonda and Geraldine Page didn't prove anything, he probably will. If he DOES lose the SAG (which is doubtful, like you said, 'cause of the 100,000 screeners), then I still think the entire body of AMPAS will pull a Paul Newman. Bob Hoskins won almost everything but NBR and lost the Oscar he deserved--why wouldn't the same fate fall upon Whitaker?

I disagree in only one area: I think The Departed will overtake Little Miss Sunshine, possibly. It feels like the way to reward the entire cast. If they're voting for Arkin for Supporting Actor, then they might feel that's enough. But I guess that's if they're truly behind it for BP.

The screener business is giving false hope to "Venus" I'm afraid. The SAG member I have talked to did not recieve their screeners before the voting deadline. So yes on paper it looks great, but in reality, I don't know if it means anything or not. I think Whitaker will take the SAG. Too few people have seen "Venus."

Yeah, I know a lot of the screeners didn't make it in time. But plenty did make it in time, and saturation is a big deal regardless. I'm not convinced 110,000 people saw The Last King of Scotland either.

And regardless, the other reasons O'Toole could win this are still plenty. As I said, leaving the DVD satruation out of the equation, it's Peter O'Toole, he's playing an actor, he's an old timer, and he's playing up the comedy.

I have a hunch that Cate Blanchett could cause an upset in Supporting Actress.

Sorry to double post, but I think neither Arkin nor Murphy are deserving at this point. DiCaprio is deserving, but he doesn't belong in Supporting Actor. Nicholson was the best of the year, Beach was a close second, IMHO. However out of these nominees, I would vote for Jackie Earle Haley.

*ow, i cut my foot*

Sorry, again, but
RETCON
Paul Dano was better than Arkin in LMS.
I <3 Arkin but this wasn't a big film with me, save for Breslin, Carell and Dano. Collette wasn't very stronge, Kinnear was annoying and Arkin's character was lovable but he didn't show any range.

I was not aware of this 100,000 screener thing, but that does indeed help O'Toole. Maybe he will take it.

I do doubt, though, that they'll honor THREE veterans. That's a LOT. I think DiCaprio will win supporting. He has 3 nominations, and he won't be getting votes for Blood Diamond. But that still opens the door for Arkin to win the oscar.

Basically I think whichever film wins ensemble will lose supporting actor. And currently I'm betting it's LMS/O'Toole/Mirren/DiCaprio/Hudson.

Though I'd love it if Abigail Breslin (a REAL actress) could overtake Hudson for the trophy.

I think LMS will win ensemble with BABEL as a possible runner-up. The "ensemble" award doesn't translate that much with Oscars though. Sideways won ensemble but lost best picture at the Oscars. LMS makes sense, won't be a surprise. But BABEL wins best pic at the Oscars.

Isn't the fact that The Departed only got ONE nominations outside of Ensemble a clue that maybe they weren't that fond of it as a whole? I dunno. Babel, Little Miss Sunshine (my predicted winner) and Dreamgirls all have two nominations (and all in supporting!) yet only one for The Departed. And it's for a performance that everybody agrees is a lead.

regret --

i couldn't disagree more. arkin showed tremendous rage, do u remember the scene where abigail asks him if she's pretty? i thought he gave a remarkable performance, maybe not the best in the category but substantially better than dano's.

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Contact Us

Search


2008 Year in Advance Predictions


UPDATED: 2/25/2008





Main Charts | Tech Charts



[Motion Picture]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”

“The Soloist”



[Directing]

David Fincher
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Ron Howard
“Frost/Nixon”

Gus Van Sant
“Milk”

Sam Mendes
“Revolutionary Road”

Joe Wright
“The Soloist”



[Actor in a Leading Role]

Benicio Del Toro
“The Argentine”

Jamie Foxx
“The Soloist”

Frank Langella
“Frost/Nixon”

Sean Penn
“Milk”

Brad Pitt
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”



[Actress in a Leading Role]

Vera Farmiga
“Nothing But the Truth”

Angelina Jolie
“Changeling”

Julianne Moore
“Blindness”

Meryl Streep
“Doubt”

Kate Winslet
“Revolutionary Road”



[Actor in a Supporting Role]

Josh Brolin
“Milk”

Russell Crowe
“Body of Lies”

Robert Downey, Jr.
“The Soloist”

Heath Ledger
“The Dark Knight”

Michael Sheen
“Frost/Nixon”



[Actress in a Supporting Role]

Amy Adams
“Doubt”

Kathy Bates
“Revolutionary Road”

Cate Blanchett
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Catherine Keener
“The Soloist”

Carice van Houten
“Body of Lies”



[Writing, Adapted Screenplay]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Writing, Original Screenplay]

“Changeling”

“Hamlet 2”

“Milk”

“The Soloist”

“WALL·E”



[Art Direction]

“Australia”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Cinematography]

“Australia”

“The Dark Knight”

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Costume Design]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Doubt”

“The Other Boleyn Girl”

“Red Cliff”

“Revolutionary Road”



[Film Editing]

“Body of Lies”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Defiance”

“Frost/Nixon”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”



[Makeup]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“The Dark Knight”

“Red Cliff”



[Music, Original Score]

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“The Soloist”

“Revolutionary Road”

“WALL·E”



[Music, Original Song]

coming soon



[Sound Editing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Iron Man”

“Speed Racer”

“WALL·E”



[Sound Mixing]

“Defiance”

“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom
of the Crystal Skull”

“Cloverfield”

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“WALL·E”



[Visual Effects]

“The Chronicles of Narnia:
Prince Caspian”

“The Incredible Hulk”

“Iron Man”



[Animated Feature Film]

“9”

“Kung Fu Panda”

“WALL·E”



[Foreign Language Film]

coming soon



[Documentary, Features]

coming soon



[Documentary, Short Subjects]

coming soon



[Short Film, Animated]

coming soon



[Short Film, Live Action]

coming soon