Why is LMS on the rise? What precedent exits to suggest that LMS could possibly win best picture with 4 nominations, no director, no editing nod, no crafts?

Why haven't people learned that after this morning, it's time to stop clammering for precendent?

The race is anybody's. Anybody's.

LMS is on the rise because deep down we know (call it a gut feeling if you feel) that Deaparted isn't going to win. Scorsese will likely take the director because this is where all the love for the movie will be channeled. It's not the type of a movie that wins an Oscar (for reasons I won't go into). Same goes for "The Queen" - it's well respected but it's too stuffy and British. In the end, it's too inconsequential for most Academy memebers.

Babel is the most obvious leader because it is the only nominee that was vastly underestimated - it cleary has wider appeal that many expected. 'Crash' is the only thing I can compare it to.

'Little Miss Sunshine' is the small Indy film of the year that everyone likes to like. It's the perennial runner-up.

This leaves us with 'Letters From Iwo Jima' which is scary for one reason - it's the dark horse of the race. Nobody knows what to expect from it. Worse still, before now and Oscar telecast there isn't a simple way to check how truly threataning it is.

Of course, I could be very wrong but this is the way I feel right now.

Kris, do you really think Dreamgirls will win 5 of its 8 oscars? By FAR the most of any film? I think that's a bit much.

I personally am hoping its 3 songs split the vote and leave an opening for Melissa Etheridge to triumph. And I feel like something has to beat it for best art direction (maybe Pan's Labyrinth?).

I have to agree that it's on solid footing in sound, costumes, and of course supporting actress. But two more? I just don't see it.

And when I said "5 of its 8 oscars," I of course meant "5 of its 6 categories."

That's a LOT of wins.

Such a strange question. "Do you really think...?"

I'm predicting it, aren't I?

What can I say. Really, really weird year.

We all know the Academy's position on giving Oscars to big rock celebrities. Although, Etheridge is a woman. And a lesbian. So maybe not.

I really think though that The Devil Wears Prada is in with a shot for winning Costume. I'd say moreso than Marie and Curse purely cause they're period. It's been seen by the biggest audience, without them the film would have died, and Patricia Field is deeply respected.

But, alas, I do think Dreamgirls will win.