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Final Predictions

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Another Oscar season is coming to a close. On Sunday, the 80th Annual Academy Awards will wrap up an exciting and unique season. Here’s my final look at the state of affairs in the crafts categories.


Best Art Direction


This strikes me as a race between Sarah Greenwood, BAFTA winner for “Atonement,” and Jack Fisk, guild winner for “There Will Be Blood.”


I think it’s a close call, but I give the edge to Fisk, as his film seems to have more love overall and the work has been acclaimed since people laid eyes on the film. It would be a long time coming for Fisk, even though this is his first nomination after a career spanning almost four decades. Even so, the work is awfully sparse for the typical winner here so I’d say Greenwood has a great chance to upset.


Prediction: “There Will Be Blood”
Alternate: “Atonement”
Preference: “The Golden Compass”


Best Cinematography


Now this is the race to watch. Strong cases can be made for any of the five nominees. The real question is whether Roger Deakins will be able to finally win in what was undoubtedly “his” year, having been responsible for two of the nominees in this category, one of them a likely Best Picture winner.


But which one of his two films is he more likely to win for? “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” is a beautifully unique accomplishment and perhaps the more traditional winner of his two efforts. But I nevertheless think that the more widely seen, more Oscar popular “No Country for Old Men,” for which he won the BAFTA award, is his better shot.


However, I think Deakins will ultimately lose to guild winner Robert Elswit for “There Will Be Blood.” Elswit’s lensing of Anderson’s epic was filled with explosive (literally) shots of oil and California as we’ve never seen it before (from locations in Marfa, Texas, no less), and the use of light was integral to setting the mood. I’m pegging him for the win (with hesitation).


If they’re looking for gorgeous, “Atonement” could certainly fit that bill as Seamus McGarvey’s photography was breathtakingly haunting and real, not to mention beautiful. Janusz Kaminski ought not to be totally ruled out for his incredible showy work on “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” either, though I sense he’s least likely to be holding the statue on Sunday evening.


Prediction: “There Will Be Blood”
Alternate: “No Country for Old Men”
Preference: “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”


Best Costume Design


Another category, another very open race. Colleen Atwood triumphed at the guild for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street.” Atwood is a guild favourite – this is her fifth win here. She’s a real threat to take the Oscar as well. But the film does not appear to be the most beloved of the nominees by AMPAS, nor does it have the showiest costumes. So I think odds are against her.


Marit Allen posthumously took the BAFTA for “La Vie en Rose,” but I suspect the factors working against Atwood are working against Allen even more.


Rather, I think the favorite in this category should be Jacqueline Durran for “Atonement.” Keira Knightley’s green dress is already considered iconic in some circles but, more importantly, the work is memorably period, memorably showy and ranges from army uniforms to upper-class dinner dress to working class servant wear. When also considering it’s the most nominated of all the contenders, it seems like a solid bet for the win.


However, if AMPAS is merely looking for extremely showy costumes, Alexandra Byrme should not be ruled out for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” This is Byrne’s fourth Oscar nomination – despite being just her seventh feature.


Prediction: “Atonement”
Alternate: “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Preference: “La Vie en Rose”


Best Film Editing


Christopher Rouse has won both the ACE Eddie award and the BAFTA for his edge-of-your-seat cutting of “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Rouse, who should have won last year in my opinion for “United 93,” would fit in well with past winners such as “The Matrix” and “Black Hawk Down” that triumphed in this category without Best Picture nominations.


Even so, winning without a Best Picture nod remains very rare indeed, having been accomplished only four times in the past forty years. Meanwhile, “No Country for Old Men” is the sort of intense (likely) Best Picture winner that would also make sense as a winner in this category.


So I’m still giving the edge to “Roderick Jaynes.”


Prediction: “No Country for Old Men”
Alternate: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Preference: “No Country for Old Men”


Best Makeup


That “Norbit” managed to earn the moniker “Oscar nominee” may very well be the makeup branch’s most memorable decision from this year – regardless of who wins in the end. In any case, I think the transformation of Marion Cotillard into Edith Paif, plus aging her and bringing her through Piaf’s illness, should make for a pretty easy win for “La Vie en Rose” in this category.


“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” is the obvious alternate given the importance of makeup to the series and the possible desire to give a tip of the hat to Ve Neill.


Prediction: “La Vie en Rose”
Alternate: “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
Preference: “La Vie en Rose”


Best Music – Original Score


With Jonny Greenwood disqualified, I think Golden Globe winner Dario Marianelli should have a pretty clear path to victory for “Atonement” here. Not only is the score the sort of transcending memorable beauty which normally wins in this category, but it is also from a Best Picture nominee, which almost always triumphs here.


The other nominees strike me as equally unlikely to upset, for various reasons.


Prediction: “Atonement”
Alternate: “3:10 to Yuma”
Preference: “Atonement”


Best Music – Original Song


“That’s How You Know” is the most likely of the three “Enchanted” songs to take this award, given that not only is it the most show-stopping number, but it also was a BFCA and Golden Globe nominee. However, I think it more likely that the presence of three songs from the same film will ultimately hurt the movie’s chances.


Ultimately, I think that Fox Searchlight’s campaign for the beautiful “Falling Slowly,” already a BFCA winner, will pay off.


Prediction: “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
Alternate: “That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
Preference: “Falling Slowly” from “Once”


Best Sound Editing


I’ve been predicting Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins to take this for months for their eardrum-shattering work on “Transformers.” I still think they are likely to triumph.


Even though I doubt AMPAS wants to give “Transformers” a great deal of statuettes, I’m doubtful that the car chases of “The Bourne Ultimatum” or the kitchen noises of “Ratatouille” will be able to compete with the robots in Michael Bay’s film. A win for “No Country for Old Men” would show that the film is a sweeper.


Prediction: “Transformers”
Alternate: “Ratatouille”
Preference: “Transformers”


Best Sound Mixing


I’ve had the suspicion for a long time that Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell would finally win this year for “Transformers.” But a BAFTA win by the more respected action blockbuster “The Bourne Ultimatum,” and a guild win by the likely Best Picture winner “No Country for Old Men,” has resulted in reconsideration on my part. Both titles are much more respected as films than Bay’s latest, and the mixing in both films was memorable indeed.


Even so, the loudness, size and box office tally of “Transformers” leads me to believe it still has the edge. So I’m sticking to my guns.


Prediction: “Transformers”
Alternate: “No Country for Old Men”
Preference: “No Country for Old Men”


Best Visual Effects


I’ve been saying that “Transformers” has had this in the bag since August. I’m sticking by that.


Prediction: “Transformers”
Alternate: “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
Preference: “Transformers”

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2006-07 Guild Awards Calendar



[Monday, January 8, 2007]

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY
Nominations Announced


[Thursday, January 11, 2007]

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD
Nominations Announced


[Friday, January 12, 2007]

AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS
Nominations Announced


[Tuesday, January 16, 2007]

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Nomiantions Announced

[Tuesday, January 18, 2007]

ART DIRECTORS GUILD
Nomiantions Announced


[Tuesday, January 18, 2007]

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY
Nomiantions Announced


[Sunday, February 11, 2007]

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY
Winners Announced


[Saturday, February 17, 2007]

ART DIRECTORS GUILD
Winners Announced


[Saturday, February 17, 2007]

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY
Winners Announced


[Saturday, February 17, 2007]

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD
Winners Announced


[Sunday, February 18, 2007]

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Winners Announced


[Saturday, February 24, 2007]

MOTION PICTURE SOUND EDITORS
Winners Announced