Hard to believe we’re here – in just a few days, the nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards will be announced. I’ll spend the next two days affording analysis of the various tech categories. Today, Best Visual Effects, Best Makeup, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, to be followed tomorrow by Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Music. Kris will be back on Monday will be back Friday with his final pre-nomination Oscar column and predictions, and I will do the same in this space at that time.

Let’s dig in here.

Best Visual Effects

The bake-off announcements yielded a number of surprises for me in recent weeks, starting with the narrowing of the visual effects finalists to seven contenders. And, well…I was wrong. I was proudly and confidently predicting all year that I knew what the nominees in Best Visual Effects would be. Now, one of them does not even make the bake-off: “Spider-Man 3.”

The effects team on this franchise won the visual effects award the last time they worked with director Sam Raimi. They were nominated for the first installment of the series as well, and while John Dykstra has since departed, Scott Stotdyk has been nominated for every one of his efforts this decade.

Ah well...so be it.

“Transformers” has been the frontrunner here in my mind from the start. I see no reason to change my stance on that now.

I used to think that “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” was practically assured a spot in this category, given the film’s mammoth hit status and incredibly extensive use of visual effects. I now must admit to having some hesitation after having seen “Spider-Man 3” fail to make the bake-off; perhaps the branch could get bored of this series as well? Even so, the competing films have various strikes against them, while this crew and this sort of work are highly regarded by the branch. A tally of 7 Visual Effects Society nominations also works in its favor.

I personally hated “300,” considering the film to be an over-the-top, excessively violent festival of gore with no plot worth telling. Even so, I would actually welcome a nomination here. The visual effects work permeated every scene and made the film feel in accordance with the director’s vision (even if I did not like said vision) and was very innovative, the sort that seldom shows up in the category. That said, I think that its extreme innovation is likely to work against it here. We’re also looking at a very Oscar-green crew.

“I am Legend” received four VES nominations, a $200 Million gross, and a couple of past nominees on its crew to back it up. The film’s “infected,” and its stark New York City environment, are the sort of things which can often garner nominations in the Best Visual Effects category. Even so, I remain skeptical on the notion of “‘I Am Legend,’ Academy Award nominee.”

Lastly we come to “The Golden Compass” – a film that, on the surface, appears to be a solid bet for a nomination. Heavily reliant on very fine CGI, it is also the sort of fantasy blockbuster that often dominates this category. The polar bears alone are the sort of achievement that often results in recognition in the field.

Those are the four I think are contending for three spots. Final bake-off contenders “The Bourne Ultimatum” and “Evan Almighty” seem long shots to me for various reasons.

Best Makeup

We also saw the finalists for Makeup coming out last week. One of the biggest surprises for me was the omission of “Hairspray.” I would have thought that Travolta’s transformation, not to mention all of the crazy hairstyles, would have earned a short-listing. That said, I’m not complaining – I found the work to be too obvious, frankly.

The year’s other big musical did make the cut. The gushing blood, period makeup and hairstyling in “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” ought to earn makeup guru Ve Neill yet another tip of the hat from her peers. But this is certainly a category where “sure things” can easily miss.

Neill also worked with Johnny Depp this year on “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” Having been nominated for the first installment of this series, then missing for the sequel, odds would appear against Neill this time around. However, odd things in such instances have happened before (very recently, in fact, on the “Lord of the Rings” series) and the work is very showy and very notable.

The makeup team of “La Vie en Rose” not only turned Marion Cotillard into famed musician Edith Piaf, but also aged her and brought her through her illness with total realism. This is the sort of work that is very noticeable and very film-serving. Cotillard is headed for a nomination – those who transformed her into the Little Sparrow deserve to come along as well.

Another French film in the mix is “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” I personally think the film is headed towards a Best Picture nomination. Not bad for a French-language film starring Mathieu Almaric which has made just a few million dollars at the box office. Will the makeup effects make it to the final round? The work is awfully dependant on one character, and it isn’t as showy as what we saw with Cotillard and “La Vie en Rose.”

“Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” will attempt to become the first film in its series to manage a nomination in this category. To be totally honest, I’m surprised the franchise has turned up a goose egg here so far. But I have to say, I fail to see what will make this particular effort stand out. Then again, three of the previous four installments have managed to score at least a nod somewhere.

“300” showcased makeup all over the place. I don’t doubt that it is in serious contention for the nomination, if only due to sheer quantity of makeup on display. It’s more of a question of whether the film will be able to garner the title “Oscar nominee” as far as I’m concerned.

Lastly we come to “Norbit.” I find its inclusion on the list to be rather bizarre, but it shouldn’t be totally unexpected. Many argue that this film cost Eddie Murphy the Oscar in February. I’m not so convinced, but there’s no denying “Norbit” was maligned to the nth degree. But even that may not prevent Makeup guru Rick Baker from receiving a nomination. And after all, “Click” was nominated last year, folks.

Best Sound Mixing

Now that the bake-off contenders have been given their proper space, let’s get to the guild announcements. And certainly, there were some surprises in store. Starting with the sound mixing arena, the only film I expected to show up was “Transformers,” for perpetual nominees (and perpetual losers) Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell. The duo will undoubtedly receive yet another nomination from the Academy this year, and I have a nagging suspicion that this is finally their time to win.

“No Country for Old Men” was, in my opinion, a pleasant surprise to see from both the guild and BAFTA. This has actually been worked hard in sound circles as the eeriness of the work takes the place of an absent musical score. Though awfully subtle for a traditional nominee in this category, given the love of the film, I’m banking on a nomination.

“Into the Wild”’s guild citation was more surprising, though I suppose I shouldn’t be shocked given that Michael Minkler is on board. That said, I’m more inclined to think that this will go the way of past guild nominees such as “Finding Neverland,” “Crash” and “Babel.”

The citation of “The Bourne Ultimatum” from the guild should not be that surprising, given that the CAS went for “The Bourne Supremacy,” and Paul Greengrass’s film has done well indeed this awards season. It would be odd for the third film in a series to be the first to earn an Oscar nomination. But given the acclaim, as well as the BAFTA nod, I’m starting to think it’ll accomplish this achievement.

The last guild nominee was “300,” which I was thoroughly surprised by given that I felt that this exceedingly violent March release would now be long forgotten. But it’s done remarkably well this awards season. It now has to be given serious consideration.

Two threequels whose predecessors have been nominated here are “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” and “Spider-Man 3.” The crews on both films are Oscar favorites, so I’d still say they are in contention. The sound branches, however, may have tired of these series, especially considering the lack of nominations from both CAS and BAFTA.

“Hairspray” and “Sweeney Todd,” being musicals, would seem solid bets here. But lack of guild support for the films, and not just from CAS, is disconcerting. “La Vie en Rose,” meanwhile, managed to get a BAFTA nomination in this category. Could it follow the route of “Amelie” to a nomination here from AMPAS?

“There Will Be Blood” and “Atonement” are two other films coming fresh off BAFTA nominations. If the crafts branches really go for the films, nominations are not out of the question. But I’d say that “No Country” has the upper hand as far as serious-minded Best Picture contenders are concerned.

Best Sound Editing

Sadly, the MPSE has not announced its nominees to enlighten us on what to expect in the Best Sound Editing category. Thus, I see little reason to depart too much from what I said here the last time I covered it. I’d bank on “Transformers” as the only solid bet.

Elsewhere, I’d expect the other nominees to come from (in rough order of what I’d consider likelihood): “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,” “Spider-Man 3,” “300,” “Ratatouille,” “Beowulf,” “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “3:10 to Yuma,” “The Golden Compass” and perhaps a random serious title like “No Country for Old Men” or “American Gangster.” I truly have no idea.

Tomorrow: The rest!