Best Music – Original Score

Dario Marianelli and Alberto Iglesias both received their first nominations two years ago for “Pride & Prejudice” and “The Constant Gardener,” respectively. They return to the fold this year for “Atonement” and “The Kite Runner.” I’d call Marianelli the frontrunner for the win, while Iglesias will likely be his biggest competition.

Marco Beltrami gets his first nomination for “3:10 to Yuma,” a tribute to a great film, great score and great campaign. Meanwhile, Michael Giacchino grabs a nod for “Ratatouille,” one of five for Brad Bird’s acclaimed effort. I’d call both of these contenders dark horses in the race.

Johnny Greenwood, on the other hand, got disqualified for his amazing compositions for “There Will Be Blood” at the last minute. This is – pardon me – bullshit, as far as I’m concerned, and exemplifies the music branch’s refusal to welcome innovative, brilliant work. Every year it seems an out-of-the-box, non-traditionalist, innovative score is snubbed by these people. Greenwood may very well have gotten a nomination on his own merits without this 11th hour ruling.

Instead, we get a nomination for James Newton Howard for his exceedingly competent work on “Michael Clayton.” Howard is a fine composer and this score is solid (in a film I loved). But seriously, this is totally an excuse to have a vet in the lineup, as seems to be required by the music branch these days.

Best Music – Original Song

Speaking of vets seemingly being required by the music branch, we have Alan Menken showing up again and again and again in the song category this year. After a decade-long absence, he is triple-nominated for “Enchanted.” “That’s How You Know” is an admittedly fun ditty, though “Happy Working Song” and especially “So Close” leave a great deal to be desired as far as I’m concerned. This is the second straight year a film is triple-nominated in this category. It’s still too early to make a judgment on how the new process of choosing nominees affects the results here, but we’ll be watching.

I think Menken is going to lose, however, to “Falling Slowly,” by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, from “Once.” This wonderful tune is immensely important in the film, a gorgeous song, a way to recognize the nominees and does find itself competing internally like “Enchanted.”

Lastly, we come to “Raise It Up” from “August Rush,” an unexpected nomination for a film I have not seen. I have no comment.

I do have comments on the snubs, however. Denying tunes from “American Gangster” and “Hairspray” was surprising enough, given the roles of the songs in those films and the relatively high profile status of the efforts. Snubbing Eddie Vedder’s work from “Into the Wild” does not only add insult to injury to Penn’s film, but also is another AMPAS slap in the face to Vedder after missing out here for “Man of the Hour” in 2003.

Best Sound Editing

I said on Saturday that I had no idea what would happen here. But I was correct in guessing that “Transformers” would be nominated. I suspect Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn are heading towards their third win.

“Ratatouille” will likely provide the biggest competition. Randy Thom and Michael Silvers did win this award for “The Incredibles,” after all. That was a much more sound-intensive effort, however.

“The Bourne Ultimatum” also pulls in one of its three nominations here. It’s a dark horse, but I don’t see it as that much of a threat to the win. A film that found itself in a similar situation 13 years ago was “Speed,” however. So anything can happen.

“No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” got in on the strength of their films, though I can’t deny the quality of the work on both movies.

It’s worth noting that in both sound categories, “Spider-Man 3” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” failed to make the cut. It appears as though the branch grew tired of these series.

Best Sound Mixing

As expected, Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell earned yet another nomination for “Transformers.” Given the nature of this film, I’m thinking they’ll finally take home the statute this year. But one can never know.

“No Country for Old Men” is a tremendously inspired nominee – the mixing in this film was phenomenal. Though it would be an extremely atypical winner, I’d nevertheless call it the main competition for O’Connell and Russell, especially given that it is the only Best Picture nominee in the category.

“The Bourne Ultimatum” brings Scott Millan back into the race. I don’t think it’s much of a threat to win but I’d still call it a dark horse. The film is clearly respected and there is always that “Speed” comparison.

I was able to predict accurately that we’d have a 3/5 matchup with the guild, and I predicted what those three films would be. But I missed what the two others would be. “3:10 to Yuma” and “Ratatouille” both scored here. I should have seen these coming, given the popularity of Paul Massey and Randy Thom in this field. But I don’t see them in the race for the win.

Best Visual Effects

“Transformers” has been the clear frontrunner since Day One in this category. “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” also expectedly completed the series with a third visual effects nomination. “The Golden Compass” manages to grab the last slot, despite the film flopping.

“300” and “I am Legend” are left on the doorstep. But really, this one has to go to the robots in disguise.

Well there we have it – the crafts category nominees for the 80th Annual Academy Awards! Come back next week as I’ll be speaking to one of the nominated sound crews.

Check out part one.

Another year has brought another set of nominees to mull over, with a handful of surprises mixed with what was, for the most part, a predictable slate of nominees.

I scored 5/5 in Best Cinematography, 3/3 in Best Visual Effects and 4/5 in Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Original Score, to go along with a 2/3 prediction in Makeup. The other aural categories did me in – correctly foreseeing only 3 of the 5 nominees in Best Sound Mixing and just two in each of Best Sound Editing and Best Original Score.

Oh well.

For the most part, I’ll discuss the nominees by category today, but allow me to first make a few notes.

To start, I think we need to note the performance of “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Three nominations for a third film in a series, when both of the film’s predecessors failed to score a single tip of the hat, is an impressive achievement. It should be attributed to the fact that, not only has the series become better with each installment, but director Paul Greengrass, saddled with talent, has come to an Academy with open arms. He’s one to watch in the future (as if he wasn’t already).

Never underestimate the power of Best Picture nominees, either. “Atonement,” “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood” all did very well indeed, racking up four crafts nominations apiece.

Total shut-outs for “Spider-Man 3,” “300” and “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” are not shocking, but still somewhat unexpected, due to a combination of guild support and big names aboard the titles.

“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” turned out to be a disappointment as the potential tech behemoth got just two nominations in these categories. But, as I suspected might happen, fellow musical “Hairspray” was totally blanked.

On to the categories. We’ll tackle half today, half tomorrow.

Best Art Direction

“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” managed to become, surprisingly, only the third Tim Burton effort to garner recognition from the art department side of things. “Batman” and “Sleepy Hollow” won the award in 1989 and 1999 respectively, and I’d venture to say Dante Ferretti would likely follow suit for this film if we were strictly looking at typicality of the winners in the category.

Ferretti will receive tough competition from veteran Jack Fisk, who finally earned the first nomination of his 35-year career for “There Will Be Blood” (he met his wife, Sissy Spacek, on the set of “Badlands!”). Sarah Greenwood, meanwhile, managed the second citation of her career for “Atonement” (she should probably keep working with director Joe Wright considering these odds).

Both Fisk and Greenwood were expected nominees and, more importantly, worked on films which clearly hit with AMPAS a lot more than Burton’s.

I was able to predict our token fantasy nominee in Dennis Gassner for “The Golden Compass,” edging out sequels “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” However, I missed the last slot, thinking that Guy Dyas would score for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” Instead, Arthur Max got his second nomination for “American Gangster,” which I find somewhat surprising, even with the guild nomination last week.

Best Cinematography

The highest profile of the crafts categories went as expected: a double nod for Deakins, in addition to citations for Kaminski, Elswit and McGarvey. This is the first time since 1996 that the ASC landed all five nominees, however. The guild added a sixth nominee that year, so who knows what might have happened with only five.

I want to say that Deakins will finally win, but might they go for the Best Picture nominee, and likely winner, “No Country for Old Men,” or the more typically ‘gorgeous’ film, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford?” I’m tempted to say he may cancel himself out, allowing one of the other gorgeous films to triumph. But they don’t vote for the name, they vote for the film. So we’ll see.

Best Picture nominees usually emerge victorious in this category, which is an advantage to “No Country,” “Atonement” and “There Will Be Blood.” “Jesse James” and “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” however, are just so showy. This is going to be one hell of a race.

Best Costume Design

Colleen Atwood (“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”), Jacqueline Durran (“Atonement”) and Alexandra Byrne (“Elizabeth: The Golden Age”) were obvious nominees in this category who I now expect to battle it out for the win.

Marit Allen received a posthumous nomination, as slowly became expected across the net last week, for “La Vie en Rose.” This is a nice way to say goodbye to a veteran, and not an undeserved nomination on merit either. It is a shame she did not live to receive this honor.

I truly struggled with predicting the last spot here. The eventual nominee came kind of out of left field (in the true fashion of this branch) when Albert Wolsky slid in for Julie Taymour’s “Across the Universe.” It is a true tribute to the degree Wolsky, a veteran if there ever was one, is respected by his peers.

Best Film Editing

Roderick Jaynes becomes the first fictional person to earn a second Oscar nomination. I suspect “he” is also on his way to becoming the first fictional editor ever to win.

Dylan Tichenor finally earned a first nod for “There Will Be Blood,” as Paul Thomas Anderson’s film racked up a total of 8 nominations. Christopher Rouse’s nomination for “The Bourne Ultimatum” is one of three mentions for the film and should be considered a threat. It’s also Rouse’s second straight nomination (after last year’s “United 93”). I don’t feel that Greengrass and Rouse reached the same heights they did last year, but the duo clearly know how to work efficiently together.

That Jay Cassidy (“Into the Wild”) and Juliette Welfing (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”) managed to get nominations here when their films did not garner Best Picture recognition is pretty surprising, in my opinion. Neither film seems like a showcase for editors, especially as John Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”) did not score while his film did. But that is neither here nor there. I did, after all, predict Cassidy, and had Welfing in seventh place.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: I strongly disagree with this final notion. “Into the Wild” featured an episodic narrative that drew upon footage from various places and from varying themes within the structure of the film. I would say that is the epitome of a “showcase” for an editor.

Likewise, Juliette Welfing had to integrate the inner and outer worlds of Jean-Dominique Bauby on the way to creating a coherent narrative with dedicated thematic commentary throughout. I’d say it was one of the finer editorial achievements of the year, and one quite challenging for any given editor.)

It’s also worth noting that this is the third straight year this category has only matched up with Best Picture 2/5. Looks like the beginnings of a trend…

Best Makeup

The makeup branch usually surprises us, and this year was no exception.

Ve Neill is back in the game, not for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet,” as many had expected, but for “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” She’ll attempt to win her fourth Oscar this year, with one of her past wins (“Ed Wood”) also coming for makeup on a Johnny Depp starrer. “Pirates” was also by far the most lucrative of the nominees, and let’s not deny how showy and key the makeup was to this series.

But Neill will face tough competition from Jan Archibald and Didler Lavergne, who have managed the first nominations of their careers for “La Vie en Rose.” Aging, illness and the re-creation of a famous persona make for strong contention in this category. I suspect it’ll result in a win.

Lastly, we have “Norbit.” Never underestimate Rick Baker in this category. Well, sometimes. He didn’t get in for sure-thing “Planet of the Apes,” after all, but he’s still a giant in the field. This film has already got a reputation for being all-time worst material, and now it is an Academy Award nominee. Go figure. Eddie Murphy in a fat suit appealed to this branch more than John Travolta in same. Never try to figure them out.

Tomorrow: Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects!

(Note: Gerard has altered his Best Original Score predictions with the news that Jonny Greenwood's and Michael Brook's compositions have been disqualified. --Kris)

Best Picture
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
Alt.: "Juno"

Best Director
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Sean Penn, "Into the Wild"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Thomoas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Alt: Sidney Lumet, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Alt.: Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
Alt.: Keira Knightley, "Atonement"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson’s War"
Hal Holbrook, "nto the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Alt.: Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, "I’m Not There"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone, Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
Alt.: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
Alt.: "Zodiac

Best Original Screenplay
"Juno"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
Alt.: "Knocked Up"

Best Art Direction
"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"The Golden Compass"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
Alt.: "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
Alt.: "Into the Wild"

Best Costume Design
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Atonement"
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Alt.: "Hairspray"

Best Film Editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
Alt.: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

Best Makeup
"La Vie en Rose"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Alt.: "300"

Best Music – Original Score
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Atonement"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lust, Caution"
"Ratatouille"
Alt.: "Grace is Gone"

Best Music – Original Song
"Enchanted" – "That’s How You Know"
"Hairspray" – "Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)"
"Into the Wild" – "Guaranteed"
"Into the Wild" – "Society"
"Once" – "Falling Slowly"
Alt.: "American Gangster" – "Do You Feel Me"

Best Sound Mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"Transformers"
Alt.: "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End"

Bests Sound Editing
"300"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End"
"Ratatouille"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Transformers"
Alt.: "The Bourne Ultimatum"

Best Visual Effects
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End"
"Transformers"
Alt.: "I am Legend"

Best Foreign-Language Film
"The Unknown" – Italy
"The Counterfeiters" – Austria
"Days of Darkness" – Canada
"Mongol" – Kazakhstan
"The Year My Parents Went on Vacation" – Brazil
Alt.: "12" – Russia

We took final glances at the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects and Makeup categories yesterday. Today we finish up the tech fields with last looks at the rest. Check back tomorrow for my full list of predictions.

Best Art Direction

The legendary Dante Ferretti seems a solid bet for his designing of “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” this year. Meanwhile, with guild and BAFTA nominations behind them, I’d also say “Atonement”’s Sarah Greenwood and “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”’s Guy Dyas would appear in solid shape. Jack Fisk, also a guild and BAFTA nominee for “There Will Be Blood,” would seem like he is finally heading towards his first nomination. The outdoors nature of the film gives me pause, but the love it has been shown makes me cautiously optimistic.

As for the fifth spot, I feel it could go a lot of places, but I’d venture to guess it will go to a fantasy, especially considering at least one nominee every year in this category tends to be fantastical.

I thought that Dennis Gassner would be in great shape for “The Golden Compass,” but the film’s tanking makes me doubtful. Even so, he’s in genuine contention. He’ll likely have to fend off those trying to repeat nods from their series: Rick Heinrichs for “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” and Stuart Craig for “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.”

“La Vie en Rose,” designed by Oliver Raoux, has a chance if the branch decides to go foreign. “American Gangster”’s Arthur Max, “300”’s James Bissell and “Hairspray”’s David Gropman remain outside possibilities in my opinion. A nomination for Harley Jessup for “Ratatouille” would be exceedingly cool, but I’m not banking on it.

Best Cinematography

The cinematographer’s guild, the ASC, went with what would have appeared to most to be the obvious nominees. “No Country for Old Men” is Roger Deakins working at his stark best. “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” on the other hand, is the more traditional, beautiful landscape work he has brought to us this year. I’d say a double nod is in the works.

“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” ought to bring Janusz Kaminski back to the nominees after an almost decade-long absence. The photography in this film allowed us to enter into Jean-Dominique Bauby‘s world.
On “Atonement,” Seamus McGarvey combined pretty countryside with amazing shots of war-torn London and France. AMPAS loves these sorts of combos – and that tracking shot alone might earn him a nomination – then again, it has also drawn heat for being too showy.

And then there is Robert Elswit’s lensing of “There Will Be Blood,” where an array of painterly techniques went into crafting instantly iconic images not likely to be forgotten any time soon.

Ultimately, I think I’m going to predict a rare 5/5 match up with the guild, because all of the films seem so strong. If one of the films is bumped, I would suspect it would be for Eric Gautier’s work on “Into the Wild.” This branch loves pretty landscapes and Penn’s film is doing very well.

Dark horses would be Rodrigo Prieto for “Lust, Caution” and Dariusz Wolski for “Sweeney Todd,” but I’m not banking on them.

Best Costume Design

Given the sort of work on display from Colleen Atwood in “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” Alexandra Byrne in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” and Jacqueline Durran in “Atonement,” all three former nominees would seem to be solid bets this year. Each have also received guild and BAFTA nominations, confirmation of their status in the category.

The guild and BAFTA awakened me to a possibility I should have considered long ago, however – Marit Allen’s creation of the wardrobe of Edith Piaf in “La Vie en Rose.” Allen passed away in November after a career stretching more than a quarter-century. This could very well turn into a way to tip the hat to a great costume designer.

But she’ll have to fend off other high profile guild nominees in Arianne Phillips (for fashioning the Old West in “3:10 to Yuma”), Ruth Myers (bringing the world of Philip Pullman to life in “The Golden Compass”) and Penny Rose (still searching for that elusive first nomination with “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”).

But the nominees are rarely chosen strictly from guild choices, so I’d keep my eye on the consistently creative Mark Bridges (should “There Will Be Blood” really catch on), the showy threads of Rita Ryack (fashioned for “Hairspray”) and, perhaps most interestingly, the Asian period work of Lai Pan on “Lust, Caution,” who received a BAFTA nomination for Ang Lee’s latest effort.

Best Film Editing

Again, we look to the guild for guidance. A guild nomination is a huge bonus in this category, as is being a likely Best Picture nominee and being filled with action and/or suspense.

Guild nominee Roderick Jaynes is almost certain to get his second nomination for “No Country for Old Men.” (Roderick is, of course, a pseudonym for the Coen brothers, and will perhaps become the first fictional “person” to earn a second nomination).

Dylan Tichenor received the third guild nomination of his career for “There Will Be Blood” but he’s had difficulty to date garnering Oscar love. Nonetheless, given the excitement around this film as of late (which I find very deserved but nevertheless somewhat surprising), I’d say his time has finally come. Jay Cassidy and John Gilroy, who I both interviewed in December, will also be in the thick of the race for their first nominations for “Into the Wild” and “Michael Clayton,” respectively.

The last guild nominee on the drama side was Christopher Rouse for “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Guild and top ten list love has greeted Paul Greengrass’s latest film considerably this season. I find this very encouraging, and a nomination for Rouse, just coming off a nod last year for “United 93,” would not surprise me. Great action films do show up here with some frequency. But this could just as easily go the way of “Casino Royale” last season.
On the musical side of things, we have both “Sweeney Todd”’s Chris Lebenzon and “Hairspray”’s Michael Tronick coming off guild nominations. Musicals are loved in this category so I’d consider both, but primarily past nominee Lebenzon.

As Best Picture nominees must always be considered, we still should take into account Juliette Welfing for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” “Atonement”’s Paul Tothill did fine work and earned a BAFTA nod for it but the lack of guild support for his film will likely do him in. Pietro Scalia is a giant in the field and also earned a BAFTA nod for “American Gangster,” but the lack of a guild citation is very puzzling.

Best Original Score

While I may have had no idea on Best Sound Editing, I finish with the category in which I have the most conflicted ideas. I remain pretty confident that Dario Marianelli will be nominated for “Atonement” – they love work like this and he’s hit all the precursors.

Johnny Greenwood, BFCA winner and BAFTA nominee for his amazing compositions for “There Will Be Blood,” *should* be a lock as far as I’m concerned. But the work is unconventional and he is new to the crowd. So he is not a lock, though nevertheless a good bet. I’d also venture to say that Alberto Iglesias is probably a solid bet for his very present work on “The Kite Runner.”

Beyond that, things get really murky in my opinion. Michael Giacchino remains a possibility for “Ratatouille” but he failed to be nominated three years ago for a more acclaimed score (“The Incredibles”), so this is still a challenge in my opinion.

Also seeking a first nomination is Marco Beltrami, for his riveting “3:10 to Yuma” score. This film has shown up occasionally throughout the season. I don’t expect a shut-out Tuesday, so this could be where it gets rewarded.
Paramount Vantage always pushes its scores with passion, so Michael Brook is a real possibility for “Into the Wild.” But I still can’t help but wonder if people will think of the songs when they think of the music in this film.

Howard Shore could provide a past winner to the nominees for his Russian-influenced “Eastern Promises” score. This will be a test to see if Shore appeals to the branch outside of “Lord of the Rings.” Also in the realm of foreign-influenced scores is Alexandre Desplat’s gorgeous work on “Lust, Caution.” How much appeal to the music branch does Desplat have?

And if the music branch REALLY wants a ‘vet’ in there, Clint Eastwood is floating around for “Grace is Gone.” He has, after all, managed to grab BFCA and Globe nods for his work on the film.

Other titles showing up would not surprise me. Every year, we get some real surprises here.

Well that’s it if you can believe it. On Tuesday, we’ll find out the nominees.

Check out yesterday's rundown.

Hard to believe we’re here – in just a few days, the nominations for the 80th Annual Academy Awards will be announced. I’ll spend the next two days affording analysis of the various tech categories. Today, Best Visual Effects, Best Makeup, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, to be followed tomorrow by Best Art Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Music. Kris will be back on Monday will be back Friday with his final pre-nomination Oscar column and predictions, and I will do the same in this space at that time.

Let’s dig in here.

Best Visual Effects

The bake-off announcements yielded a number of surprises for me in recent weeks, starting with the narrowing of the visual effects finalists to seven contenders. And, well…I was wrong. I was proudly and confidently predicting all year that I knew what the nominees in Best Visual Effects would be. Now, one of them does not even make the bake-off: “Spider-Man 3.”

The effects team on this franchise won the visual effects award the last time they worked with director Sam Raimi. They were nominated for the first installment of the series as well, and while John Dykstra has since departed, Scott Stotdyk has been nominated for every one of his efforts this decade.

Ah well...so be it.

“Transformers” has been the frontrunner here in my mind from the start. I see no reason to change my stance on that now.

I used to think that “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” was practically assured a spot in this category, given the film’s mammoth hit status and incredibly extensive use of visual effects. I now must admit to having some hesitation after having seen “Spider-Man 3” fail to make the bake-off; perhaps the branch could get bored of this series as well? Even so, the competing films have various strikes against them, while this crew and this sort of work are highly regarded by the branch. A tally of 7 Visual Effects Society nominations also works in its favor.

I personally hated “300,” considering the film to be an over-the-top, excessively violent festival of gore with no plot worth telling. Even so, I would actually welcome a nomination here. The visual effects work permeated every scene and made the film feel in accordance with the director’s vision (even if I did not like said vision) and was very innovative, the sort that seldom shows up in the category. That said, I think that its extreme innovation is likely to work against it here. We’re also looking at a very Oscar-green crew.

“I am Legend” received four VES nominations, a $200 Million gross, and a couple of past nominees on its crew to back it up. The film’s “infected,” and its stark New York City environment, are the sort of things which can often garner nominations in the Best Visual Effects category. Even so, I remain skeptical on the notion of “‘I Am Legend,’ Academy Award nominee.”

Lastly we come to “The Golden Compass” – a film that, on the surface, appears to be a solid bet for a nomination. Heavily reliant on very fine CGI, it is also the sort of fantasy blockbuster that often dominates this category. The polar bears alone are the sort of achievement that often results in recognition in the field.

Those are the four I think are contending for three spots. Final bake-off contenders “The Bourne Ultimatum” and “Evan Almighty” seem long shots to me for various reasons.

Best Makeup

We also saw the finalists for Makeup coming out last week. One of the biggest surprises for me was the omission of “Hairspray.” I would have thought that Travolta’s transformation, not to mention all of the crazy hairstyles, would have earned a short-listing. That said, I’m not complaining – I found the work to be too obvious, frankly.

The year’s other big musical did make the cut. The gushing blood, period makeup and hairstyling in “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” ought to earn makeup guru Ve Neill yet another tip of the hat from her peers. But this is certainly a category where “sure things” can easily miss.

Neill also worked with Johnny Depp this year on “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.” Having been nominated for the first installment of this series, then missing for the sequel, odds would appear against Neill this time around. However, odd things in such instances have happened before (very recently, in fact, on the “Lord of the Rings” series) and the work is very showy and very notable.

The makeup team of “La Vie en Rose” not only turned Marion Cotillard into famed musician Edith Piaf, but also aged her and brought her through her illness with total realism. This is the sort of work that is very noticeable and very film-serving. Cotillard is headed for a nomination – those who transformed her into the Little Sparrow deserve to come along as well.

Another French film in the mix is “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.” I personally think the film is headed towards a Best Picture nomination. Not bad for a French-language film starring Mathieu Almaric which has made just a few million dollars at the box office. Will the makeup effects make it to the final round? The work is awfully dependant on one character, and it isn’t as showy as what we saw with Cotillard and “La Vie en Rose.”

“Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” will attempt to become the first film in its series to manage a nomination in this category. To be totally honest, I’m surprised the franchise has turned up a goose egg here so far. But I have to say, I fail to see what will make this particular effort stand out. Then again, three of the previous four installments have managed to score at least a nod somewhere.

“300” showcased makeup all over the place. I don’t doubt that it is in serious contention for the nomination, if only due to sheer quantity of makeup on display. It’s more of a question of whether the film will be able to garner the title “Oscar nominee” as far as I’m concerned.

Lastly we come to “Norbit.” I find its inclusion on the list to be rather bizarre, but it shouldn’t be totally unexpected. Many argue that this film cost Eddie Murphy the Oscar in February. I’m not so convinced, but there’s no denying “Norbit” was maligned to the nth degree. But even that may not prevent Makeup guru Rick Baker from receiving a nomination. And after all, “Click” was nominated last year, folks.

Best Sound Mixing

Now that the bake-off contenders have been given their proper space, let’s get to the guild announcements. And certainly, there were some surprises in store. Starting with the sound mixing arena, the only film I expected to show up was “Transformers,” for perpetual nominees (and perpetual losers) Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell. The duo will undoubtedly receive yet another nomination from the Academy this year, and I have a nagging suspicion that this is finally their time to win.

“No Country for Old Men” was, in my opinion, a pleasant surprise to see from both the guild and BAFTA. This has actually been worked hard in sound circles as the eeriness of the work takes the place of an absent musical score. Though awfully subtle for a traditional nominee in this category, given the love of the film, I’m banking on a nomination.

“Into the Wild”’s guild citation was more surprising, though I suppose I shouldn’t be shocked given that Michael Minkler is on board. That said, I’m more inclined to think that this will go the way of past guild nominees such as “Finding Neverland,” “Crash” and “Babel.”

The citation of “The Bourne Ultimatum” from the guild should not be that surprising, given that the CAS went for “The Bourne Supremacy,” and Paul Greengrass’s film has done well indeed this awards season. It would be odd for the third film in a series to be the first to earn an Oscar nomination. But given the acclaim, as well as the BAFTA nod, I’m starting to think it’ll accomplish this achievement.

The last guild nominee was “300,” which I was thoroughly surprised by given that I felt that this exceedingly violent March release would now be long forgotten. But it’s done remarkably well this awards season. It now has to be given serious consideration.

Two threequels whose predecessors have been nominated here are “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” and “Spider-Man 3.” The crews on both films are Oscar favorites, so I’d still say they are in contention. The sound branches, however, may have tired of these series, especially considering the lack of nominations from both CAS and BAFTA.

“Hairspray” and “Sweeney Todd,” being musicals, would seem solid bets here. But lack of guild support for the films, and not just from CAS, is disconcerting. “La Vie en Rose,” meanwhile, managed to get a BAFTA nomination in this category. Could it follow the route of “Amelie” to a nomination here from AMPAS?

“There Will Be Blood” and “Atonement” are two other films coming fresh off BAFTA nominations. If the crafts branches really go for the films, nominations are not out of the question. But I’d say that “No Country” has the upper hand as far as serious-minded Best Picture contenders are concerned.

Best Sound Editing

Sadly, the MPSE has not announced its nominees to enlighten us on what to expect in the Best Sound Editing category. Thus, I see little reason to depart too much from what I said here the last time I covered it. I’d bank on “Transformers” as the only solid bet.

Elsewhere, I’d expect the other nominees to come from (in rough order of what I’d consider likelihood): “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,” “Spider-Man 3,” “300,” “Ratatouille,” “Beowulf,” “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “3:10 to Yuma,” “The Golden Compass” and perhaps a random serious title like “No Country for Old Men” or “American Gangster.” I truly have no idea.

Tomorrow: The rest!