Now that a list of finalists has been announced, the time seems right to delve into analysis for the last “crafts” category – Best Original Song.

I should say that there are never any locks here, with seemingly sure bets often failing to make the cut. It is a rather odd category, in my opinion, as I often wonder if original song writing is such an important contribution to filmmaking that it deserves a category to itself whereas tasks like stunt co-ordination and casting are not currently awarded. However, the fact of the matter is that the category’s existence often results in many stars coming to the show who otherwise would not – so it’s not going anywhere any time soon.

An alteration in the rules two years ago changed the process of choosing the nominees slightly. Each song will be screened to the music branch in the context used in the film and then given a grade. If five films receive the minimum grade, the songs with the five highest averages become the nominees. Furthermore, if not enough songs receive high enough vote tallies, there could be less than five nominees, as we saw in 2005. I would not be surprised in the slightest if this happened again.

Sean Penn chose to make Eddie Vedder’s songs key to “Into the Wild.” With Paramount Vantage pushing hard, I suspect they will end up being very much in contention. “Guaranteed” seems to be leading the way with both BFCA and Globe nominations, and I’d tentatively call it this category’s frontrunner. But I would not be surprised in the slightest if “Society” also ended up with a nomination. The third eligible song, “Rise Up,” appears the least likely of the three but one never knows what might happen.

Alan Menken used to dominate this category. In the seven years from 1989 to 1995, he received eight nominations and four wins. But after a final nod for “Hercules” a decade ago, he’s been absent from the scene. Along with Stephen Schwartz, Menken has written several new songs for Disney’s latest hit, “Enchanted,” and seems poised to return to the big race. Judging by the BFCA and Globe nominations, I would say that “That’s How You Know,” which, in my opinion, is clearly the best of the three ditties, is likely to be his ticket. Even so, “Happy Working Song” and “So Close” ought not to be ruled out.

”Hairspray” has decided to promote just one of its original songs: “Come So Far (Got So Far to Go).” Personally, I felt that “Ladies Choice” was the better of the new tunes for the film. Even so, this civil rights ballad is the more traditional Oscar-nominee of the two and it has been rewarded with a BFCA nomination. It is probably a solid bet for a nod.

Another musical, “Once,” received immense acclaim this summer and its soundtrack topped the list of reasons for its success. Despite easily being one of my favorite films of the year, I have no delusions that it is on the way to any of the major categories (though one can hope). But the film could find a home here. Fox Searchlight is pushing hard and has chosen to concentrate on two tracks: “Falling Slowly” and “If You Want Me”. I personally was not surprised by the Globe shutout, this being the sort of small, independent film that the HFPA ignores. “Falling Slowly,” a BFCA nominee, seems the more likely of the two songs to end up short-listed.

Animated films traditionally do very well with Best Original Song. “Le Festin” from “Ratatouille” was a fun ditty. “Royal Pain” from “Shrek the Third” continued on the series’ tradition of opening with a track of interest. At the end of the day, however, neither song is all that memorable and I suspect we’ll be seeing no animated films nominated this year.

Anthony Hamilton’s “Do You Feel Me?” from “American Gangster” is, in my opinion, one of the best original songs in film this year not to come from “Once.” In a high profile film, with a notable role in the movie and with a BFCA nomination behind it, this seems, on paper, to be a solid bet for a nomination. Even so, for some reason I find myself doubting it and can’t put my finger on just why.

“The Golden Compass” has garnered a reputation as a considerable flop in recent weeks. Even so, Kate Bush is the sort of performer you’d think the Academy would love to have at the telecast, so a nomination for “Lyra” would not shock me to death.

Shakira’s “Despedida” from “Love in the Time of Cholera” is a beautiful, haunting song and I found its Golden Globe nomination to be tremendously heartening. Not being in English, and also being in another notable flop, it will struggle for a nomination. But this is a category that tends to disregard a film’s quality. “Al Otro Lado del Rio” from “The Motorcycle Diaries” won two years ago, so perhaps language isn’t much of a barrier.

A few years ago, a nomination for a song such as “Walk Hard” from “Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story” would have seemed absurd. But after nominees such as “Blame Canada” and winners like “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” things seem…less certain. This ballad earned a Globe nod so it ought to be considered, especially as a nomination would result in current money-maker Judd Apatow becoming an Oscar nominee!

A man who has dominated the Oscar scene recently is Clint Eastwood, managing seven nominations, including two wins in the past four years. Seemingly unable to have an awards season without him, citations from the BFCA and HFPA have brought Eastwood’s music from “Grace is Gone” into contention for a nomination this year. His Golden Globe-nominated song, “Grace is Gone,” was written by six-time Oscar nominee Carol Bayer Sager. Even so, I’m skeptical that the music branch is going to embrace an actor-director as one of their own. But you never know.

That completes analysis of all ten crafts categories. More to come in the New Year. Stay tuned next week for an original score review column.