A Final Look

Three days. Then it’ll be another year before the men and women of filmmaking get to go to the Kodak Theater and celebrate their work in front of the world. As I mentioned two weeks ago, the craftsmen and craftswomen tend to take a backseat in media coverage. But they still combine for ten of the twenty-four awards handed out on Oscar night. So let’s take one, final look at these races.
BEST ART DIRECTION
“Pan’s Labyrinth” is a film that had an amazing run as the season wound itself down, nominated six times over and finding itself among the most loved films of the year. Eugenio Caballero’s elaborate sets blend both period and fantasy while also playing quite an integral role in the plot (hell, look at the title). In addition, it is the only one of the three Art Directors Guild winners to even be nominated for an Oscar. I’d say that puts it in a good position, though I certainly don’t think a win is assured.
With that in mind, “Dreamgirls” is indeed the bigger film. Academy Award winner John Myhre’s work doesn’t exactly drawing attention to itself, but it nevertheless displays a vibrant Motown spanning multiple decades. But I’m just not sure how many awards the film can win, and it’s yet to win anything in this category. Admittedly, Myrhe won for “Chicago” without any precursor awards, but that was for a Best Picture winner. This film is not even a nominee in the big race.
Prediction: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Alternate: “Dreamgirls”
Preference: “The Prestige”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

With no Best Picture nominee in the category, we don’t have to worry about the fact that this award tends to go to a Best Picture nominee. Rather, we look to the film with the most acclaimed cinematography, taking most of the critics awards, including the BAFTA and the guild award: Emmanuel Lubezki and his oft-covered, dazzling work in “Children of Men.”
Interestingly, and unlike most prognosticators, I wouldn’t really call this category “locked.” Lubezki’s work is showy, but not necessarily beautiful like most winners here tend to be. However, I don’t see what can beat it at this point. I suppose Guillermo Navarro’s eerie and atmospheric efforts on the clearly beloved “Pan’s Labyrinth” would come in second – but it’s a very distant second.
Prediction: “Children of Men”
Alternate: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Preference: “Children of Men”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Now THIS is an open category, made even more so by the absence of the BAFTA/CDG winner, “Pan’s Labyrinth.” I’m leaning towards Sharen Davis of “Dreamgirls” as a winner, but it’s close. She’s yet to win anything, and how many awards do we expect this non-Best Picture nominee to take in the end? Even still, her film is a costume spectacle, one more widely seen than the other two period pieces nominated. It also has seven non-costume nominations compared to zero for each of the other period nominees (remember that period almost always triumphs in this category). Respected films go a long way. And then there’s the fact that Davis’s threads outfit a showbiz environment in “Dreamgirls.” How many industry folks can relate to that?
Chung Man Yee’s triumph at the guild awards this weekend is indicative that Sony Pictures Classics has made the rounds with “Curse of the Golden Flower.” And as over-the-top as I consider the work to be, there’s no denying it’s an utter costume showcase, like “Dreamgirls,” as well as the sort of exotic endeavor the Academy occasionally tips its hat towards in a crafts category. All of that said, it remains a foreign film, and one that is not critically respected. It also has no other nominations.

Also worth mentioning is the other period entry in this category, the oft-celebrated Milena Canonero and “Marie Antoinette.” The Academy may or may not have enjoyed this film, but the threads speak for themselves and deserve a mention. I can easily see the film taking the cake in this category.
Prediction: “Dreamgirls”
Alternate: “Curse of the Golden Flower”
Preference: “Dreamgirls”
BEST FILM EDITING
A winner of the ACE award for Editing has won this award in nine of the last ten years. What’s the problem this year? The guild itself couldn’t decide. “Babel” and “The Departed” tied for the award.
The Academy loves action in the film editing field, “Saving Private Ryan,” “The Matrix,” “Black Hawk Down” and “Return of the King” standing as examples. Moreover, I’m expecting “The Departed” to eek out a win in Best Picture. And it’s the sort of film that would seem a great possibility to win this category without Best Picture, much less with it. So I ultimately expect Thelma Schoonmaker to barely win a third Oscar.
ACE co-winner “Babel” and the work of Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise would be the definitive competition. Not only does the Academy love to award interlocking storylines in this category (“Traffic,” “Crash”), but this would be a potential place to reward a film clearly liked (with the lion’s share of nominations among the Best Picture nominees) but not a clear favorite in any category.

Prediction: “The Departed”
Alternate: “Babel”
Preference: “United 93”
BEST MAKEUP
“Pan’s Labyrinth,” with the awardage it has received thus far (including the BAFTA in this category), its total of six nominations and the considerable love apparent for it in the industry, would appear to have a very firm grip on this category. That it has the showiest makeup on both prosthetic and non-prosthetic fronts is a big bonus.
“Apocalypto” is a distant second – not altogether out of the running, but still distant. It is also a film showcasing makeup work throughout rather than in a handful of key sequences – something to consider.
Prediction: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Alternate: “Apocalypto”
Preference: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE
This is the most difficult category to predict, in my opinion. Cases could be made for all nominees. Each of the efforts find secure positions in my personal top ten.

Ultimately, I’m banking on Alexandre Desplat for “The Queen,” a delicate, film-serving score, one that improves upon multiple viewings. Desplat is also a major up-and-comer in this field. Moreover, the winner in this category tends to be a Best Picture nominee when possible. (On only two of the last fifteen occasions has a Best Picture nominee lost to a non-Best Picture nominee.) That said, the score does not draw attention to itself and it lacks the sort of iconic theme that often wins this category. As such, I don’t consider it an assured winner in the least.
Philip Glass, meanwhile, is a composer I suspect we’d see more of in the Oscar race if he were to take more traditional, Academy-friendly scoring jobs. As it is, he has three nominations, is somewhat due for a win, and his “Notes on a Scandal” score is vintage Glass. That could be the ideal combo. But it’s also somewhat divisive work, and while the film has been doing well for itself throughout the film awards season, it hasn’t exactly been setting the race on fire either.
Prediction: “The Queen”
Alternate: “Notes on a Scandal”
Preference: Eeny...meeny…miny…I like all these scores A LOT. In fact, they rank between my third and seventh favorites of the year (my two faves, “The Painted Veil” and “The Fountain,” are out of the running). I’m not solid on a preference, but I think I’d lean to Desplat or Glass…imagine that.
BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG
Here’s where I’m stepping out on somewhat of a limb. I see the beneficiary of a vote-split scenario being Melissa Etheridge. Paramount Vantage has done a fantastic job getting “I Need to Wake Up” out there, sending it to every Academy member, along with the music and lyrics. Also being the sort of ballad the Academy loves, and further attached with a message to it, I feel this is where we’ll see a minor upset in a category which does not shy away from upsets.

With three nominations in this category, one would expect that “Dreamgirls” would have this award in the bag. I, however, I am not so sure. “Listen” is the song that has the most precursor attention and is the most typical winning song (a ballad with a key role in the story). But there’s considerable love out there for “Love You I Do” and “Patience,” both of which are sung by actors whose roles have been nominated by the actors’ branch. A vote split is not out of the question.
Prediction: “I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
Alternate: “Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
Preference: “I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth”
BEST SOUND EDITING
This is an interesting race, largely because both Bub Asman and Robert Alan Murray find themselves nominated twice – for two pretty similar efforts. Many would argue this is the most logical place to reward “Letters from Iwo Jima,” a film AMPAS clearly liked a great deal and has enough war effects so that an Academy voter can probably justify voting for them. As I said two weeks ago, working on a Best Picture nominee always helps in the race for wins.
Nonetheless, vote-splitting between “Letters” and the more action-intensive “Flags of Our Fathers” is not out of the question. If this were to occur, it would likely benefit the water-and-action-heavy work of George Watters II and Christopher Boyes on the blockbuster “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”

Prediction: “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Alternate: “Flags of Our Fathers”
Preference: “Flags of Our Fathers”
BEST SOUND MIXING
I must concede that I feel “Dreamgirls” took somewhat of a hit here when it missed a Best Picture nomination. With the exception of “Bird,” all musicals to have won this category this side of “South Pacific” have been Best Picture nominees. (“Bird” is not even really a musical, I know, but it won because of its music). Moreover, the CAS award has been somewhat of a curse as of late, with none of the last five guild winners winning the Oscar. That said, it still would be the most traditional winner of the nominees, it has the most nominations of the nominees (it probably missed that Best Picture berth by “this much”) and I don’t see what’s going to beat it.
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” is the sort of film that would win Best Visual Effects and Sound Editing before this. However, I doubt it’ll take two Oscars, much less three. But truthfully, any of the films could slip in a steal it.
Prediction: “Dreamgirls”
Alternate: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Preference: “Dreamgirls”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

I’ll end with the easiest award of the night to predict. The winner of by far the most guild awards. The winner of the BAFTA. The highest grosser of any film in contention. The only film nominated in multiple categories categories. John Knoll and crew have this one in the bag for “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”
Prediction: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Alternate: “Superman Returns”
Preference: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Good luck to all on Sunday. We’ll wrap things up next week.

Comments
I think these are all very solid predictions, at least they follow the general concensus. I really don't know what to make of costume design, the music categories, and the sound categories. I have to agree with you on the Song category though. "I Need to Wake Up" feels like such an important song, they might want to reward that instead, besides the vote splitting. It also seems recently that they have been rewarding the underdogs instead of the big pop songs. I'm still rooting for Pan's Labyrinth to win, but if it doesn't win, I agree it will be The Queen. With sound, that CAS statistic really bugs me, and I see Kevin O'Connell finally winning it. And sound editing, I want to convince myself it will be Letters, but the BAFTA, CAS, MPSE, and nominations in both mixing and editing make Pirates to much to resist. Good analysis.
Posted by: bblasingame
| February 22, 2007 03:29 PM