The Academy’s nominations announcement has come and gone. So what have the craftsmen and craftswomen told us this year?

The first thing that jumps to mind is that the branches weren’t afraid to think for themselves this year.

For the first time since the black-and-white and color categories merged in 1967, the Best cinematography category is completely void of Best Picture nominees. Tom Stern (“Letters from Iwo Jima”), Rodrigo Prieto (“Babel”) and Michael Ballhaus (“The Departed”) are all MIA. The branch also continues to shy, unapologetically, away from digital photography. Dean Semler’s work on “Apocalypto” was a guild nominee seemingly on track for an Oscar mention.

Instead, we’re left with nominees where the imagery was realized by lighting and practicality. Emmanuel Lubezki’s intense work on “Children of Men” probably looks set for the win, and it couldn’t be more deserved. Guillermo Navarro’s critically acclaimed work on “Pan’s Labyrinth” is probably the only semblance of a threat.

Dick Pope finally has a nomination to his credit for inspired work on “The Illusionist.” But as the film’s only nomination, a win will be a difficult climb. Also the only nominee from his film is Vilmos Zsigmond for “The Black Dahlia,” who managed to trump “The Good Shepherd”’s Robert Richardson to be the veteran able to translate his guild nod to Oscar. The work isn’t a personal favorite, but I must say that it’s nice to see Zsigmond in the running once again. I suspect many in the branch felt the same way.

As for Wally Pfister, his nomination for “The Prestige” is another very deserved surprise. He and director Christopher Nolan are turning into a great director-D.P. team. May their future collaborations continue to be great.

Just like the cinematographers, the art directors also shied completely away from Best Picture nominees. They, too, have not done this since the black-and-white and color categories were merged in 1967.

The nominations for Eugenio Caballero (“Pan’s Labyrinth”) and John Myrhe (“Dreamgirls”) should surprise no one. But what did serve as a surprise to many was the omission of Jim Clay and Geoffrey Kirkland for “Children of Men.” But as great as the work is, it really isn’t Oscar fodder.

Instead, the branch looked to the fantastical work of Rick Heinrichs on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.” This was the only nomination this sequel received which the original did not. Ironically, Heinrichs is the only technician to be a new addition to the series.

Nathan Crowley also got his first nomination – a much deserved one might I add – for “The Presitge.” This comes after something of a snub last year for “Batman Begins.” He managed to sneak in over another grand recreation of an old world: “Curse of the Golden Flower.”

Janine Claudia Oppewall’s sets for Robert DeNiro’s “The Good Shepherd” rounded out the category. Set decorator Gretchen Rau received a posthumous nomination. While Rau got her final tip of the hat, Henry Bumstead did not, with both “Flags of Our Fathers” and Best Picture nominee “Letters from Iwo Jima” in the running. My suspicion is that a combination of vote-splitting and neither film featuring terribly showy art direction prevented him from a final nomination.

For the second year in a row, the editors also included merely two Best Picture nominees among their own choices. The legendary Thelma Schoonmaker got her sixth nomination for the action-heavy “The Departed,” while the branch also cited “Babel”’s Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione, who is returning to the nominees six years after winning for another film about interlocking stories, “Traffic.”

A third nominee – the kinetic work of Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson on “United 93” – should not come as a surprise to anyone. But the final two nominees were actually quite shocking, both having missed guild nominations.

Alfonso Cuarón and Alex Rodríguez were singled out for “Children of Men,” an inspired choice. Cuarón joins the ranks of David Lean and the Coen brothers, nominated for editing his own film.

I wish I could share the same enthusiasm for Steven Rosenblum, nominated for “Blood Diamond.” I have no delusions that my opinion is indicative of Academy thoughts. However, what’s really confusing here is that Rosenblum’s previous two Oscar nominations (“Braveheart,” “Glory”) came on the heels of guild nominations and wins. “Blood Diamond” did not even receive an ACE nod last week.

Despite all the action nominated, Stuart Baird was omitted for “Casino Royale,” part of that film’s unfortunate shutout. Virginia Katz missed out for “Dreamgirls,” despite the fact that musicals are a favorite of this branch. Lucia Zucchetti also missed for “The Queen.” However, considering the rise in her career in recent years, I strongly suspect we might be seeing her in the future.

The costume designers’ branch also steered clear of Best Picture nominees for the most part, while simultaneously opening themselves up to a line of work they almost never embrace. After a dozen years of period and fantasy film domination, not one but two contemporary showcases have been cited: Patricia Field’s trendy and character-serving threads for “The Devil Wears Prada” and Consolata Boyle’s fashioning of royal wear on “The Queen.” I find this quite encouraging, and these films’ inclusion also results in the first occasion where all Oscar nominees have come from the guild’s chosen crop.

Typical yet deserving choices rounded out the lot. The expansive showbiz wardrobe designed by Sharen Davis for “Dreamgirls” landed a nomination, as did costume showcases “Curse of the Golden Flower” and “Marie Antoinette,” allowing Chung Man Yee and Milena Canonero to become the sole nominees for their films.

The two categories that allow a mere three nominees both bestowed the eternal moniker “Oscar nominee” on a curious duo: “Click” in Best Makeup and “Poseidon” in Best Visual Effects. Kudos to Kris for predicting these two nominations. “Poseidon” can thank being in a very weak year for the category. I would have thought Rick Baker (makeup guru) would have helped “Click” but it turns out he was presumably just an advisor as he doesn’t share in the nomination. Interesting.

“Posiedon” was nominated alongside obvious contenders “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns.” But the latter was strangely omitted from the Best Makeup category, which was capped off by “Apocalypto” and “Pan’s Labyrinth.” The omission of “Pirates,” is strange, especially after having made the bakeoff. I expect “Pan’s” to garner the makeup statue pretty easily, if not quite as easily as “Pirates” in the visual effects category.

Increasing to five nominations this year was the Best Sound Editing category. This made predicting the lineup all the more difficult, especially considering the Motion Picture Sound Editors will not be announcing their nominees until tomorrow. I correctly guessed that this would be the only category to find room for both “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Letters from Iwo Jima,” but the question now becomes how they will affect each other as far as the race for the win is concerned.

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” also found itself predictably among the nominees for its loud and notable sound effects. However, other titles of consideration – “Cars,” “Casino Royale,” and “Superman Returns” – all came up short. We rather surprisingly got nominations for “Apocalypto” and “Blood Diamond” in their stead.

The sound mixers’ branch unsurprisingly translated four nominees from the Cinema Audio Society’s crop, crews chocked full of Oscar favorites: Reitz, Rudloff, Campbell and Martin for “Flags of Our Fathers;” Beemer, Minkler and Burton for “Dreamgirls;” Behlmer, Nelson and Sharrock for “Blood Diamond;” and Boyes, Massey and Orloff for “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.”

“Babel,” on the other hand, failed to convert its BAFTA and CAS nominations. Its lack of any previous nominees probably did it in. Instead, the branch turned to perennial nominees Kevin O’Connell and Greg Russell. They each earned their 19th and 11th nominations respectively, for Mel Gibson’s “Apocalypto.” If these guys don’t finally score a statue this year, they surely ought to have the best chance of their careers next season with “Spider-Man 3” and “Transformers” on the plate.

One of the big stories Tuesday morning was that, for the first time in Academy history, the nominations leader did not have a Best Picture nomination among its tally. One of the principle reasons “Dreamgirls” led the way was that it earned THREE mentions in the Best Song category. This puts the film up there with “Beauty and the Beast” and “The Lion King” as far as dominance in the category is concerned.

Joining the “Dreamgirls” tunes is Melissa Ethridge’s wonderful “I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth.” Kudos to Paramount Vantage for getting this song out there; it becomes the first song from a documentary ever nominated in both this category and its own. Randy Newman’s sweet “Our Town” from “Cars” completes the quintet, earning him his seventeenth nomination and his first since his win five years ago.

Omitted are Golden Globe-nominated songs “Never Gonna Break My Faith” (Bryan Adams’s ballad from “Bobby”), “Song of the Heart” (Prince’s Globe-winning ditty from “Happy Feet”) and Seal’s “A Father’s Way” from “The Pursuit of Happyness.” All of these songs play over the end credits of their films. I suppose the attempt to ensure that nominated tunes play a substantial role in their films is working, for the most part.

One of the strangest categories every year is always Best Original Score. This year, Gustavo Santaolalla is once again among the nominees for his heavily promoted and precursor-nominated work on “Babel.” Alexandre Desplat also finally has an Oscar nomination to his credit, but not for his Golden Globe-winning work on “The Painted Veil” (sadly shut-out across the board) but his BAFTA-nominated delicate compositions for Stephen Frears’s “The Queen.”

Beyond the two Best Picture nominees, Javier Navarette got in for “Pan’s Labyrinth,” which did have a wonderful theme. I suppose two new nominees (the other being Desplat) was enough for the branch, as Clint Mansell unfortunately did not make it in for “The Fountain.” (EDITOR’S NOTE: Ugh!!!)

Thomas Newman managed his eighth career nomination for Steven Soderbergh’s maligned “The Good German.” This is truly a branch that does not seem to mind how well – or poorly – a film is thought of, so long as the composer is a favorite. The music over the opening credits should have clued all of us into this nomination. Newman trumped James Horner (“Apocalypto”) and Hans Zimmer (“The Da Vinci Code”) for a veteran slot.

The category rounded itself out with Philip Glass, scoring not for his BFCA-winning work on “The Illusionist” but for his very loud and memorable compositions in “Notes on a Scandal,” but all things considered, this remains a very open category – as does much of the rest of the field. We should certainly have fun watching this race unfold.

Congratulations to all the nominees.

Best Art Direction
"Children of Men"
"Dreamgirls"
"The Good Shepherd"
"Pan’s Labyrinth"
"The Prestige"
(alt.: "Flags of Our Fathers")

Best Cinematography
"Apocalypto"
"Babel"
"Children of Men"
"The Good Shepherd"
"The Illusionist"
(alt.: "Pan’s Labyrinth")

Best Costume Design
"Curse of the Golden Flower"
"The Devil Wears Prda"
"Dreamgirls"
"Marie Antoinette"
"Miss Potter"
(alt.: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest")

Best Film Editing
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"The Queen"
"United 93"
(alt.: "Casino Royale")

Best Makeup
"Apocalypto"
"Pan’s Labyrinth"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest"
(alt.: "X-Men: The Last Stand")

Best Music – Original Score
"Apocalypto"
"Babel"
"The Illusionist"
"Notes on a Scandal"
"The Painted Veil"
(alt.: "The Queen")

Best Music – Original Song
"Bobby"
"Cars"
"Dreamgirls"
"Happy Feet"
"An Inconvenient Truth"
(alt.: "Dreamgirls")

Best Sound Mixing
"Blood Diamond"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest"
(alt.: "Babel")

Best Sound Editing
"Cars"
"Casino Royale"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest"
(alt.: "Superman Returns")

Best Visual Effects
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest"
"Superman Returns"
"X-Men: The Last Stand"
(alt.: "Casino Royale")

Best Animated Feature Film
"Cars"
"Happy Feet"
"Monster House"
(alt.: "Over the Hedge")

Best Foreign Language Film
"After the Wedding"
"The Lives of Others"
"Pan’s Labyrinth"
"Volver"
"Water"
(alt.: "Avenue Montaigne")

Five days before the announcement of the nominees for the 79th Annual Academy Awards, the guilds have given us our clearest indications of what we can expect.

Since my last columns, the British Academy of Film and Television were joined by the chorus of the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), the Art Directors Guild (ADG), the Costume Designers Guild (CDG), the American Cinema Editors (ACE) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS) in declaring lists of nominations. These guilds are, more than any other precursor event, the most important “clue” we prognosticators get.

Some titles pretty much performed as expected and remain in contention in the categories in which we suspected they’d assert themselves. “Children of Men,” for instance, continues to have a great grip on art direction and cinematography nods…and little beyond that.

“The Departed” is still likely an “editing only” piece from a tech vantage point. Best Sound Mixing and Cinematography remain in the realm of possibility, though each was slighted by the respective guilds. (Today’s ADG nod is likely irrelevant.)

Another likely Best Picture nominee, “The Queen,” remains an editing possibility. But despite the ADG and CDG nods in the contemporary category, I don’t see those translating to Oscar. Consolata Boyle’s threads might be considered a decent longshot.

And “Dreamgirls” unsurprisingly scored guild nods from practically everywhere. Only The ASC snub results in a cinematography nomination appearing more questionable, if still very possible. The film is set to go in Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing.

Other titles, however, had their prospects considerably boosted by the guilds.

BROUGHT TO THE FOREFRONT

“Babel” – Alejandro González Iñárritu’s film is not only coming off a Globe win and a nomination from each of the major four guilds…it received a nod from every tech guild except the cinematographers. What does this mean? The industry clearly loves “Babel!” A nomination for Best Film Editing seems assured, while Best Original Score, Best Sound Mixing and, yes, Best Cinematography (lenser Rodrigo Prieto was BAFTA-nominated after all) seem to be very much in contention. Not bad for a contemporary ensemble drama.

“Casino Royale” – Martin Cambell’s latest James Bond installment managed the impossible, becoming a critical darling and raking in the largest worldwide box office take in the franchise’s history. It further shook up the scene by grabbing an improbable three guild nominations – from the art directors (ADG), costume designers (CDG) and, most tellingly, the editors (ACE). The Nine BAFTA nods were not altogether unexpected but are still further indication of support for the film. Nominations in the editing and sound categories seem very possible. And in a weak year for art direction, a 30-year vet like Peter Lamont can’t be ruled out.

“Little Miss Sunshine”/”The Devil Wears Prada” – These well-reviewed, financially successful comedies were doing fine before the guilds came along. Then they started scoring all over the place. An editing or song nomination for “Little Miss Sunshine” is a possibility with a costume
design citation for “The Devil Wears Prada” almost appearing likely.

FINDING SOME HELP

“Curse of the Golden Flower” – Yimou Zhang’s visual spectacle may have underwhelmed the critical consensus, but the film has already one-upped his “House of Flying Daggers” by scoring guild nominations – for both art direction and costume design. Expect at least the latter, and maybe even the former, to follow come Oscar morning.

“The Good Shepherd” – This wasn’t a massive shaker at the guilds, but it had widely been given up for dead after being perceived as a significant disappointment. After citations from both the ASC and the ADG, Robert De Niro and Eric Roth’s epic spy drama could definitely show up with a craft nod or two. Set decorator Gretchen Rau also sadly passed away shortly after winning the Oscar last year for “Memoirs of a Geisha.”

“The Illusionst” – The Yari Film Group’s plan seems to have worked. Now with two guild nominations behind it (ASC and CDG) in addition to a Critics’ Choise win for Philip Glass’s score, I doubt this film will get shut out. It’s admittedly not locked anywhere, though between Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction (which is a difficult category to predict), Best Costume Design and Best Original Score, I think we’re at least looking at a nod or two.

“Pan’s Labyrinth” – So the ADG was always coming but the CDG has to be considered somewhat of a surprise. When one also considers the BAFTA love, this film is likely headed towards a healthy dosage of craft nominations.

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” – ADG, CDG, CAS and ACE. All admittedly achieved by the original. But for a sequel widely viewed as inferior, this is a very impressive tally nevertheless. When one also considers the five BAFTA nominations, Jack Sparrow’s latest adventure could easily be headed towards a nice tally of nominations.

“United 93” – The support from the guilds for Paul Greengrass’s critically acclaimed 9/11 entry was not overwhelming, with only the writers and editors going for it. But not much could have been expected beyond that. I feel Best Film Editing is quite assured, with Best Sound Mixing being a potential surprise.

HARDER TO READ

“Apocalypto – The ASC nod for Dean Semler was a great help and probably established the film as second in the cinematography race (after Emmanuel Lubezki’s lensing of “Children of Men”). But no CAS nod for Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell is very strange indeed. They’ve only once been Oscar nominated after guild snubs, after all ("Con Air").

“Blood Diamond” – Edward Zwick’s critically poo-pooed diamond smuggling drama has just been chugging along. Along with NBR and BFCA top ten mentions, it has two SAG nods, as well as a CAS citation. I’d be surprised if the film was shut out come Oscar morning. But its support has been so inconsistent that WHERE it will show is a matter of great debate. There are clearly no locks.

HURTING

On the other end of the spectrum, we have those titles whose chances were undoubtedly hurt, maybe even irreparably.

“Flags of Our Fathers”/“Letters from Iwo Jima” – Here’s the shocker. No nomination for Joel Cox for a couple of war films? No nomination for Tom Stern for a double bill filled with many memorable images? No nomination for Deborah Hopper for blending American and Japanese every day and military uniforms? This isn’t mentioning the PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA snubs. No nominations AT ALL for “Letters,” a film that won the LAFCA and NBR. We’re simply left with a final ADG tip of the hat for Henry Bumstead (for “Flags”), a CAS nod and some scattered Visual Effects Society mentions. Oscar nods will likely come in the sound categories and could come calling for Bumstead one last time. But will any other branch follow suit?

“Marie Antoinette” – The CDG nod was as locked as these nods get. But nothing else? Big trouble on the horizon, I reckon, especially for the art direction, which seemed a lock and is now very vulnerable.

“World Trade Center”/”The Good German” – These may have been considered dead. Now, with no guild love, they can be confirmed as such. The ADG snub for “World Trade Center” is particularly mind-reeling. I still feel Oliver Stone’s film has a shot at Best Sound or Best Sound Editing, and Thomas Newman could get a Best Original Score mention for Steven Soderbergh’s effort. But really…anything else would be quite surprising, and even those categories are in no way assured.

Next Thursday, the nominees will have been announced. Reactions to what the tech branches saw as the year’s best at that time.

Yesterday we began a preview of the upcoming technical guild announcements with looks at the Costume Designers Guild, American Cinema Editors and Cinema Audio Society. Today we wrap up the preview with glances toward the American Society of Cinematographers and the Art Directors Guild.

American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) (nominees announced January 16, 2007)

Ah, cinematography – consistently one of my favorite disciplines out there. Over the past few years, the ASC has lined up with the Academy on a 60%-80% basis as far as nominations have been concerned.

One thing to remember is that the ASC is a lot more embracive of the youth, in both their nominees and winners, than the Academy. They also tend to be more mainstream than their corresponding branch in the AMPAS, so work on lower profile films – such as Stuart Dryburgh’s lensing of “The Painted Veil,” Xiaoding Zhao’s photography on “Curse of the Golden Flower,” and Guillermo Navarro’s award-winning work on “Pan’s Labyrinth” – all strike me as more likely to show up at the Academy than the guild.

At the same time, the guild strikes me as more likely to nominate a beloved veteran on a floppy film. Nominations for Robert Richardson (“The Good Shepherd”) or Vilmos Zsigmond (“The Black Dahlia”), both of whom have been cited by ASC when the Academy has ignored them, wouldn’t surprise me.

Tom Stern seems destined to show up for one of his films this year. It’s highly likely to be “Letters from Iwo Jima” in my opinion. But a double nod (with “Flags of Our Fathers”) would not shock me to death.

Emmanuel Lubezki’s innovative, eerie and intense lensing of “Children of Men” might seem like a shoo-in. While I think it will be nominated, I’ll nevertheless urge caution. Lubezki has missed guild nods for two of his three Oscar-nominated achievements and “Children of Men” is not a film that connects with everyone. That said, ASC tends to be more embracing of innovative work than AMPAS (see: “Collateral”), so I still believe Lubezki is in.

Tobias Schliessler gave us the glitzy and glossy “Dreamgirls,” which could be his big break. I’m not sure I love the work all that much but that’s neither here nor there. It seems a good bet for citations from both the guild and the Academy nonetheless.

Rodrigo Prieto probably just missed the win here last year for “Brokeback Mountain” and he’s followed that up with diverse work on the Best Picture contender “Babel.” This could go either way as far as I’m concerned, both with the ASC and at the Academy. It isn’t the sort of work that draws attention to itself, but is interesting and film serving all the same.

A nod for Wally Pfister for “The Prestige” seems to be the sort of thing that ASC would do when AMPAS does not follow – a clever, somewhat atypical effort by a young D.P. on a mainstream film. And the Academy followed suit last year after the guild surprisingly nominated Pfister’s work on “Batman Begins.” “The Prestige” seems to have faded, however.

I think Dean Semler will score here for “Apocalypto” whether or not he’s nominated by the Academy. His collaboration with Mel Gibson was grand, epic and a return to form for the Oscar-winning lenser.

Michael Ballhaus is receiving the guild’s lifetime achievement award this year (very deserved if I may say so myself). How this will affect his chances for “The Departed” is something I’m not sure of, but my suspicion is that the guild would love to nominate him, even though they’ve only done so once in the past (for “Gangs of New York”).

(EDITOR’S NOTE: I say, what with the inexplicable “Blood Diamond” love out there, watch out for Eduardo Sera here as well.)

Art Directors Guild (ADG) (nominees announced January 16, 2007)

For many years now, the Art Directors Guild has divided its awards into period/fantasy and contemporary categories. This year, however, they are joining the Costume Designers Guild in separating fantasy from period. The guild is also known to have a very loose definition of what constitutes “contemporary,” having placed “Walk the Line” and “Chocolat” in that category in this decade.

The nominees tend to have a great deal of crossover with the Academy’s, with no more than two, often no more than one, of the Oscar nominees failing to receive a nomination from the guild. Those which tend to get Oscar nominations without guild nominations are usually lower profile titles, often involving a foreign culture (such as “Pride and Prejudice,” “A Very Long Engagement,” “Frida,” “Gosford Park” and “Vatel”). Then again, Stuart Craig’s Oscar nomination for “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” last year without guild placement would seem to fly in the face of this trend.

Just as things seem to be with the costumers, “Marie Antoinette” (K. K. Barrett) and “Dreamgirls” (John Myrhe) would have to be considered frontrunners in the art directors’ period category. I also find it unlikely that the guild will fail to bid adieu to one of the legendary production designers, Henry Bumstead, with a citation for “Flags of Our Fathers” or, more likely, “Letters from Iwo Jima.”

But things become hazy beyond that. The individual efforts from Tingxiao Huo on “Curse of the Golden Flower” and Tu Juhua on “The Painted Veil” strike me as the sort which the guild tends to go for less than the Academy, though they are certainly possibilities.

Philip Messina did fantastic work on “The Good German” but the film has flopped with both critics and audiences. Janine Claudia Oppewall (“The Good Shepherd”) and Dante Ferretti (“The Black Dahlia”) both have experienced a great deal of love form this group in the past, but they are also involved in films considered overall disappointments.

They could give a double nod to Bumstead or maybe even cite Tom Sanders for “Apocalypto,” even though that film is more memorable for its exteriors. It’s tough to say. We’ll find out soon.

On the fantasy side of things, I have the utmost confidence that Eugenio Caballero (“Pan’s Labyrinth”), Rick Heinrichs (“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”) and Jim Clay and Geoffrey Kirkland (“Children of Men”) will all be nominated. Should the film be deemed a fantasy (and I think it will be), I’m confident that Nathan Crowley (“The Prestige”) will join them. And I’d reckon Guy Dyas (“Superman Returns”) is most likely to round out a quintet

Other possibilities?

James Chinlund’s rangy design of “The Fountain” or Wolf Kroeger’s extravagant work on “Eragon” would both seem possible but for the flopping of their respective films.

Edward Verreaux had a good year with “Monster House” and “X-Men: The Last Stand,” but neither film strikes me as a great awards vehicle.

Owen Paterson got a guild nomination for “The Matrix,” so let’s not bury him for “V for Vendetta.”

And then we come to Ondrej Nekvasil, who seems to be in the same boat for “The Illusionist” as Nathan Crowley is for “The Prestige.” But his work is not as showy, and he isn’t a superstar in the guild by any stretch.

As for the contemporary category, these nominations rarely cross over to Oscar (with Aline Boneto’s design of “Amélie” being the only exception). I doubt this year will change course, but I like that such work is cited from the guild nonetheless. Jan Roelfs would have to be considered the frontrunner for his eerie work on “World Trade Center,” but beyond that it becomes more open.

I’d venture to say that Briggitte Broch’s rangy sets for “Babel” make for a likely nominee, while Alan Macdonald’s reconstruction of the royal world for “The Queen” is another recipe for a nomination.

Richard Sherman would be a shoo-in for “Running with Scissors” (I expect the guild to deem it contemporary) if the film were more loved. I feel he’ll get in nevertheless.

Kristi Zea’s designing of modern Boston could also get swept up in the love for the film. After all, “Crash” was nominated here last year.

Jess Gonchor’s up-scale New York in “The Devil Wears Prada” seems the likeliest alternate, but I can’t help but feel I’m forgetting something or someone.

(EDITOR’S NOTE: I’d say “Casino Royale” and four-time Oscar nominee Peter Lamont is a good start. “Posiedon” and Oscar nominee William Sandell? Two-time guild nominee Dan Weil and “Blood Diamond?” A few possibilities.)

In any case, this category can often have surprises in store. A real shocker could occur in “Dreamgirls” being deemed contemporary. After all, it takes place later than “Chocolat” and in the same general era as “Walk the Line.” Stranger things have happened, right?

Given that most of the tech races aren’t extensively covered by the precursor season, the best tea leaves we have for judgment are the guilds. It’s all for the best, really, as the guild memberships contain many of the Academy members who eventually nominate for Oscar.

The Visual Effects Society, Motion Picture Sound Editors Association and Makeup and Hairstylists Guild certainly can provide insight in their fields. However, these organizations each have many categories that do not precisely overlap with the corresponding Oscar races.

So in the interest of time and focus, I’ll concentrate on the five guilds which essentially award on the same criteria the Academy does. We’ll start with the costumers, editors and sound mixers today.

Costume Designers Guild (CDG) (nominees announced January 11, 2007)

Last year, the Costume Designers Guild split the period/fantasy category leaving three arenas for recognition along with the contemporary field. The guild seems to take the latter to mean very recently indeed, even categorizing “Rent” in the period category last year. But that does not mean there is not grey area out there. Do, for example, “The Prestige” and “The Illusionist” fit into the fantasy or period classification?

The guild also seems to be one not overly preoccupied with predicting the Oscar nods. Despite having multiple categories, there almost always seem to be at least two, often more, of the eventual AMPAS nominees missing from the list.

I think it’s extremely safe to say we’ll be seeing Milena Canonero (“Marie Antoinette”) and Sharen Davis (“Dreamgirls”) in the mix in the period category this year. But beyond that it becomes more difficult.

I somehow suspect we’ll be seeing Julie Weiss among the nominees for “Bobby” as she designed threads for a plethora of big stars and seems to be the sort of designer who’d be well-loved in the industry.

“The Painted Veil” (Ruth Myers) and “Miss Potter” (Anthony Powell) might seem to be easy gets. However, despite Myers and Powell being highly respected designers, neither has experienced a lot of love from the guild.

Chung Man Yee, meanwhile, was assigned a costume showcase on “Curse of the Golden Flower.” But that’s a very foreign effort for an American guild to embrace. And could one of the critically maligned films – “The Black Dahlia,” “The Good German” or “The Good Shepherd” – get a nomination for Jenny Beavan, Louise Frogley or Ann Roth, respectively? It’s very possible.

On the fantasy side of things, we’re probably looking at the aforementioned “The Prestige” (threads courtesy of Joan Bergin) and “The Illusionist” (with Ngila Dickson doing the duty) scoring here – IF they are classified as fantasy. Penny Rose’s work on “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” would appear a lock.

My suspicion is that the category will be rounded up with one of Renée April for “The Fountain” or Kym Barrett and Carlo Pogliotti for “Eragon” (recall there were only four nominees last year), but those films are not terribly respected so we could be in for a surprise. “Pan’s Labyrinth?” “V for Vendetta?” “Children of Men?”

The contemporary race tends to have little affect on the Oscar race, but it is fun to predict nonetheless. I have little doubt Patricia Field will take the award for “The Devil Wears Prada,” but who will join her as fellow nominees?

I’d bet on Dorinda Wood for “For Your Consideration” and, considering the range in the threads, Michael Wilkinson makes sense for “Babel” as well. Consolata Boyle would also appear in great shape for “The Queen” assuming the film is deemed contemporary. Sandy Powell might appear a shoo-in for “The Departed,” but I’d urge caution there. The guild seems to have a strange aversion to her. Despite a phenomenal filmography, including seven Oscar nominations and two wins, she’s only ever been cited by the guild ONCE (an obvious nod for “The Aviator”).

American Cinema Editors (ACE) (nominees announced January 12, 2007)

If the Costume Designers Guild doesn’t seem to be much of an Oscar oracle, the American Cinema Editors are the opposite. At least four, often five, of the Oscar nominees for editing are part of this slate of ten nominees (distinguished in the fields of drama and comedy/musical). In fact, at least four – often five – of the ultimate Best Picture nominees tend to show up here as well.

A mortal lock for a nomination on the drama side of things would be Thelma Schoonmaker for “The Departed.” A legendary talent with an editing showcase that’s a Best Picture contender is a solid gold combination.

Speaking of editing showcases, I’d be quite surprised if the critical favorite “United 93” missed out here, despite Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson being unseasoned on the awards circuit. The work from Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione on “Babel,” another Best Picture contender with showy editing, also strikes me as a very likely nominee.

Then we come to Joel Cox’s collaborations with Clint Eastwood on his Iwo Jima films. I have little doubt Cox will be nominated (along with Gary Roach) for “Letters from Iwo Jima.” The real question, as far as I’m concerned, is whether he’ll be able to double dip with an accompanying nod for “Flags of Our Fathers.” My suspicion is no, because Lucia Zucchetti is also floating around with her concise, archival-integrating work on “The Queen.” But a double nod for Cox is possible nonetheless, and I’m reasonably confident in saying the five Drama nominees will come from these six titles.

As for the comedy/musical category, Virgina Katz is clearly leading the way for “Dreamgirls.” Pamela Martin’s cutting of the extremely popular “Little Miss Sunshine” is right behind her.

Piecing together the right takes from a wealth of footage on “Borat” must have been a challenge, so I think Chris Alpert, Peter Teschner and James Thomas can probably count on a mention. Matt Cheese’s work on “Stranger than Fiction” was also showier than your typical comedy, so I think he’ll show up as well.

My suspicion is that Mark Livolsi, who was nominated last year for “Wedding Crashers,” will round up the nominees with a follow-up nod for “The Devil Wears Prada.”

The main challenger, in my opinion, is “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest.” Stephen E. Rivkin and Craig Wood won this award, after all, for the original. Dana E. Glauberman is also a possibility, depending on how deep the support for “Thank You for Smoking” runs.

Cinema Audio Society (CAS) (nominees announced January 18, 2007)

Lastly we come to the Cinema Audio Society, which recognizes achievement in Sound Mixing. Of the 30 Oscar nominees for Best Sound Mixing this decade, 25 have been nominated by the CAS – a very important precursor for the category, indeed.

Of the five recent CAS nominees who have missed come Oscar time, three (“Shrek,” “Catch Me If You Can,” “The Bourne Supremacy”) were what I’d describe as fun and light films, while the other two (“Crash,” “Finding Neverland”) were Best Picture nominees in the midst of receiving A LOT of love from the guilds.

The big musical, “Dreamgirls,” is practically assured of getting a nomination for favorites Michael Minkler and Bob Beemer. And speaking of favorites, Kevin O’Connell and Greg Russell have gotten five nominations this decade en route to Oscar nods. I doubt they’ll miss out on a tip of the hat for a sound spectacle like “Apocalypto.”

But what I’m most curious to see with regards to the CAS is how they treat the Clint Eastwood’s efforts. Both “Flags of Our Fathers” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” have the same crew: Gregg Rudloff, John Reitz, Dave Campbell and Walt Martin. So will they go for the surefire Best Picture nominee (“Letters”) or the more traditional sound nominee (“Flags”)? Can they both make it, or will they cancel each other out? How these films affect each other in the crafts races is something that remains to be seen.

The CAS might also be the first place to show some love for “World Trade Center,” which has been M.I.A. this awards season. Mixer Scott Millan is a favorite, after all.

Bruckheimer efforts are also frequent nominees in this field, and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” was not only a hit of colossal proportions but also a sound spectacle. My hesitation comes from a possible “been there, done that” syndrome, but it probably has the advantage over other popcorn titles such as “Casino Royale” and “Superman Returns.”

Two animated features this year – “Cars” and “Happy Feet” – proved themselves to be sound showcases. But “Shrek” remains the only animated film to ever be nominated by the CAS, so I doubt they’ll get citations here, even if they sneak in come Oscar time.

Lastly we have Tom Fleischman and company’s work on Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed.” The film may not be stereotypically bombastic in its sound design, but you can do “loud” a number of different ways. “The Departed” carved its own niche in that regard.

That’s all for today. We’ll finish up tomorrow with The Art Directors Guild and the American Society of Cinematographers.