As I mentioned when I introduced the category in September, there is a two-stage process in determining the nominees for Best Visual Effects. And guess what? Stage One has now passed!

Last Friday, the following titles were announced as finalists in the category:

“Casino Royale”
“Eragon”
“Night at the Museum”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“Poseidon”
“Superman Returns”
“X-Men: The Last Stand”

The committee will now screen pre-selected scenes from these titles and choose three nominees from among them.

To start, a few notes on some surprising omissions. The failure of “The Fountain” and “Pan’s Labyrinth” to make this list has resulted in several eyebrows being raised. I won’t dispute the deservedness of these contenders. However, I can hardly say that their being left off the list shocks me. Both contenders are notably lacking in the CGI, which has come to dominate this category in recent years. Moreover, both are small, very artistic and somewhat atypical affairs. This is the category that is most embracing of the mainstream blockbusters, mind you.

More surprising omissions in the eyes of this viewer come in “Charlotte’s Web” and “Flags of Our Fathers.” It is true that neither of these titles burned up the box office, but both embody the sort of work the branch loves.

“Charlotte’s Web” featured a massive visual effects crew and was an acclaimed film with talking animals – a good start for a prospective contender. Maybe they just thought the work wasn’t good enough or innovative enough?

“Flags” was also very well received, still seemingly all set to be a high-profile contender in many other categories (always a bonus). The effects were impressive and had even been highlighted in “for your consideration” ads. Then again, the crew was totally unseasoned from an awards perspective, which may or may not have attributed to its coming up short.

Let’s take a look at the films that DID make it into play:

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” must be considered an overwhelming favorite here. From massive storms at sea to a monstrous Kraken and, most memorably, the creation of Davy Jones and his crew, the visual effects work on this film was extremely showy, extremely acclaimed and very much the sort of effort that the branch loves. And the behemoth box office take makes for some tasty gravy.

All things considered, I’d be floored if John Knoll and his crew, including Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall (all of whom have experienced Oscar love before) fail to make the cut. In fact, I’d venture to say they’re almost certainly headed towards the win.

The only film that could conceivably stop them on their way to the statuette is Bryan Singer’s “Superman Returns.” The effects designed for this film sent the budget through the roof (and consequently, pretty much prevented the film from achieving profitability). But that didn’t stop the critical praise from coming for the work which was front and center in almost every scene in the movie. The film probably received the best critical reception of the finalists and, despite number crunching, it remains the third highest grossing of the seven from the perspective of box office.

Oscar winner Mark Stetson heads the crew. Past winners Neil Corbould and Jon Thum are also on board, along with past nominee Richard R. Hoover. I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t all heading to the Kodak once more.

The battle for the third spot is quite competitive. Despite the fact that the effects were a major selling point of their films, however, I’d be surprised if “Poseidon” or “Eragon” managed to sneak in. Both films have been critically reviled. I will concede that this does not always matter in the crafts categories, but it nevertheless makes it more difficult. And these two films don’t really have the box office to overcome this hurdle, despite sporting some veteran and respected crewmembers.

“Casino Royale” was an interesting inclusion among the finalists. A Bond film hasn’t scored an Oscar nomination since “For Your Eyes Only”’s Best Original Song nomination a quarter-century ago. But 007 hasn’t had this sort of critical reception in, well, a very, VERY long time. And when one considers the public’s embracing of the film, not to mention the work in that Venice climax sequence, this nomination seems even more possible.

Then again, if you remove that scene in Venice, is there a whole lot here that sticks out as warranting a nomination? To boot, the crew isn’t peppered with Oscar veterans (at least from looking at the IMDb). A nomination wouldn’t shock me, but I’m certainly not counting on it.

“Night at the Museum” seems like it could be a very substantial hit over the holiday season. The visual effects work also looks quite integral to the film, supervised by three-time Oscar winner Jim Rygiel (of “The Lord of the Rings” fame). But the film also has a great deal of uncertainty surrounding it. Will it actually live up to its box office promise? What will the critics say? Just how substantial are the visual effects (I haven’t seen it yet)? Lots of questions. Answers should be coming shortly.

To me, it looks like “X-Men: The Last Stand” is probably going to sneak that last nomination. It was the franchise’s biggest hit, and did it ever feature extremely showy, “look-at-me” visual effects. John Bruno (a perennial nominee in this category in the mid-80s and mid-90s) is also leading the crew.

But then again, the first two films were much better received critically. And they actually had a respected director at the helm (Bryan Singer). Moreover, this could suffer from “been there, done that” syndrome when the “there and that” weren’t embraced by the branch. It would also be rather odd if this were the only “X-Men” film to garner an Oscar nomination. Alas, sometimes that’s the Academy. After all, “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” was the first – and, to date, only, entry in its series to garner a nomination in this category.

Barring something very unexpected happening when the Visual Effects Society announces their nominees next month, this is my last in-depth look at this category. We’ll see what the AMPAS does six weeks from now.